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PODCAST

RenMac

Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to

business investing

All Episodes

00:44:09

RenMac Off-Script: Is The Bull Case &@#% !?

RenMac ·

2026/02/27

RenMac breaks down why light tax refunds and narrow consumption growth are challenging the bullish economic narrative, even as AI capex continues to carry investment. The team explores falling Treasury yields despite “good” data, extreme tech momentum reminiscent of 2000, and cracks forming beneath the surface in software and breadth. They also cover late-cycle sector rotation into energy and defensives, housing and AI power politics in Washington, and what next week’s ISM, jobs, and retail sales

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00:42:42

RenMac Off-Script: Credit Concerns

RenMac ·

2026/02/20

RenMac breaks down a market that’s still trending higher but losing momentum, as 2-year yields flirt with cycle lows and leadership rotates between cyclicals and defensives. The team discusses why GDP and inflation prints are being distorted by the shutdown, why slowing wage growth could become the real 2026 risk, and what Trump’s State of the Union, tariffs, and Iran could mean for energy markets. They also tackle whether high yield credit is the canary in the coal mine—and why private equity and

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00:32:22

RenMac Off-Script: AI Bifurcation

RenMac ·

2026/02/13

RenMac unpacks cooler inflation that keeps Fed cuts in play just as rising job anxiety and narrow hiring trends point to softer labor conditions beneath the surface. The team debates the growing AI vs. non-AI market bifurcation, fragile tech momentum, tight credit spreads versus private credit stress, tariff maneuvering around chips and Taiwan, and what housing, manufacturing, and D.C. drama signal for markets ahead.

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00:56:28

RenMac Off-Script: Big Tech Faces Capex Conundrum

RenMac ·

2026/02/06

CNBC’s Sara Eisen joins the RenMac Off-Script team to unpack why Big Tech’s AI spend is suddenly spooking markets, cracking momentum trades, and pressuring software stocks. The team breaks down softening labor signals beneath solid GDP growth, Bitcoin’s risk warning, FX stress abroad, the views of the Davos elite and what a potential Kevin Warsh Fed chair could mean for markets.

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00:49:06

RenMac Off-Script: Warsh Your Hands

RenMac ·

2026/01/30

RenMac unpacks the market fallout from Kevin Warsh emerging as the leading Fed chair candidate, the risks building in parabolic trades like gold and crypto and why sentiment extremes and “hair-trigger” psychology make these trades vulnerable to sharp reversals. The team also breaks down “momentum tech” and sector rotation risks, rising trade and shutdown risks, China-Taiwan tensions and why February seasonality could amplify market crosscurrents.

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00:42:06

RenMac Off-Script: Mysterious Market Reactions

RenMac ·

2026/01/23

RenMac digs into the growing political stakes around the Fed chair decision, why global yields—especially in Japan—are reshaping risk appetite, and how improving breadth, regional banks, and small caps point to healthier market internals. The team also breaks down Davos takeaways on trade, rare earths, and China strategy, why good news for the economy doesn’t always translate into good news for the markets, and what to watch next as yields, seasonality, and leadership trends evolve.

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00:51:01

RenMac Off-Script: Live From The Edge

RenMac ·

2026/01/16

RenMac recaps key takeaways from the firm’s 2026 Investor Forum, where stronger near-term data clashes with persistent weakness in housing and labor. Dutta argues inflation pressures continue to ease and deGraaf explains why that cooling inflation, improving breadth, and early strength in consumer discretionary point to a more constructive equity backdrop. Pavlick outlines why affordability is shaping energy, housing, and trade policy in a midterm year, while geopolitical tensions around China,

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00:49:37

RenMac Off-Script: Big Oil: Pump for Trump

RenMac ·

2026/01/09

RenMac digs into a complicated January jobs report that dampens near-term rate-cut expectations as Dutta warns that unemployment risks are rising beneath stable headlines, while deGraaf points to an updated Market Cycle Clock, falling yields and trend signals that still support equities. Pavlick outlines growing policy uncertainty around tariffs, housing affordability, and Venezuela, and the team explores why markets continue to shrug off geopolitical risk, how healthcare and biotech are emerging as

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00:34:58

RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Hits the Slopes

RenMac ·

2026/01/02

RenMac kicks off 2026 with a wide-ranging discussion on the political reality around affordability and inflation, asset allocation myths, and what to watch as ISM and employment data kick off the year. Dutta argues inflation pressures are easing faster than expected across housing, labor, and energy. deGraaf highlights emerging cyclicality beneath soft year-end trading, cautioning that extended moves in commodities and precious metals are entering bubble territory. And Pavlick outlines why tariff

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00:39:38

RenMac Off-Script: Ronaldo, Trade, Inflation & What...

RenMac ·

2025/12/26

RenMac closes out 2025 by reflecting on the year’s biggest macro, market, and political surprises as the team looks ahead to early 2026. deGraaf explains why seasonality and easing inflation remain underappreciated tailwinds, Dutta highlights the growing disconnect between strong GDP prints and weakening income and warns that unemployment — not growth — will drive the next phase of the cycle. And Pavlick breaks down why internal Republican divisions and the unresolved Fed chair search matter heading

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00:48:46

RenMac Off-Script: Data Gone Wiles

RenMac ·

2025/12/19

RenMac breaks down a pivotal week where inflation cooled but global yields surged, suggesting the global bond markets—not just the U.S.— may be driving the next macro chapter. Dutta argues first principles matter on unemployment and inflation, deGraaf explains why the latter contracting is historically a quantifiable tailwind for equities and Pavlick examines China tensions from Panama to Taiwan and the continued political risks surrounding tariffs, defense spending, and Fed leadership.

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00:54:00

RenMac Off-Script: Fed Forecast Folly

RenMac ·

2025/12/12

RenMac welcomes WSJ Correspondent Nick Timiraos to unpack a pivotal week for monetary policy. The team digs into why the January jobs print will determine whether the next cut is “live,” how hawkish dissents shaped Fed communications, and what the Chair succession battle means for policy credibility. deGraaf highlights improving market breadth and surprising strength across banks, metals, and equal-weight indices, while Dutta outlines a deteriorating labor market beneath the surface. And Pavlick

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00:44:05

RenMac Off-Script: Why The Maestro Matters

RenMac ·

2025/12/05

RenMac breaks down why forecasting skill and real-world market instincts are critical for the Fed as it faces rising unemployment and a slowing economy. The team unpacks the administration’s escalating pressure on Maduro, surprising weakness in data-center stocks and fading construction momentum as utility costs climb. Also on tap: market leadership rotation, tariff strategy, Japan’s investment commitments and ACA politics. Here, we also welcome you to sign up for our RenMac’s weeklymacro

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00:42:05

RenMac Off-Script: Stewie Can't Be Fed Chair

RenMac ·

2025/11/28

RenMac kicks off Black Friday with a dive into consumer weakness as deGraaf outlines why seasonality is stacked against discretionary stocks, and what recent oversold signals in SPACs, semis, and Bitcoin mean for market trend shifts. Dutta questions the logic of a “hawkish cut” as sentiment, income, and labor data deteriorate, warning the Fed may fall further behind the curve. And Pavlick breaks down rising geopolitical friction from Taiwan to USMCA hearings and evaluates how tariffs, Fed

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00:39:26

RenMac Off-Script: Tequila Soaked Nights

RenMac ·

2025/11/21

RenMac breaks down the market’s ugliest day since 2018 as deGraaf explains the rare “outside reversal” and what oversold signals in Bitcoin, NDX, and speculative tech mean going forward. Dutta argues the Fed is risking a policy mistake as unemployment rises and layoffs spread, and Pavlick outlines the administration’s limited tools — with tariff rollbacks emerging as Trump’s main lever heading into 2026. The team also digs into AI Chip-lomacy, rising utility costs, and early signs of credit strain

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00:40:00

RenMac Off-Script: Trad(ing) Tensions

RenMac ·

2025/11/14

RenMac welcomes trade expert Kelly Ann Shaw to unpack a whirlwind week of global trade deals and she explains how the White House is using tariff recalibration to ease consumer pain ahead of the midterms. Dutta rails against the Fed’s “hawkish paralysis” despite cooling data, deGraaf warns markets are flashing bifurcation between tech highs and cyclical lows, and Pavlick tracks how D.C. gridlock, revenue politics, and voter sentiment are reshaping policy risk.

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00:45:54

RenMac Off-Script: A Probabilities Business

RenMac ·

2025/11/07

RenMac discusses rising layoff signals and a Fed seemingly blind to softening labor data, Trump’s tariff maneuvering and how SCOTUS and Congress may (or may not) push back, the disconnect between affordability concerns and political rhetoric, and what 52-week highs and lows are signaling about market breadth. They also explore why crypto’s stalling, the shutdown’s drag on economic visibility, and the myth of recession-proof secular bull markets.

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00:53:56

RenMac Off-Script: Enough Bad to Be Good

RenMac ·

2025/10/31

RenMac welcomes CNBC’s Mike Santoli to unpack the market’s bullish resilience amid growing macro cracks. The team debates Powell’s “hawkish cut” and its hit to mortgage rates, why housing remains in recession despite Fed easing, and how the AI boom is masking deeper labor and credit stress. deGraaf breaks down the difference between trend and momentum markets, Pavlick tracks Trump’s Asia trade push, rare earth strategy, and the prolonged D.C. shutdown and Dutta warns that slowing incomes and housing

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00:31:40

RenMac Off-Script: Bubble Bandwagons

RenMac ·

2025/10/24

RenMac breaks down a cooler-than-expected CPI print that cements the case for further Fed cuts and tempers tariff-fueled inflation fears. Neil dissects how weak rents and slowing jobs are driving disinflation, while Jeff explores the anatomy of bubbles and why gold’s surge is flashing early warning signs. Pavs tracks Trump’s escalating trade brinkmanship ahead of his Asia trip, the politics of aprolonged shutdown, and what to watch in global negotiations as markets juggle seasonality, sentiment, and

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00:41:21

RenMac Off-Script: Shooting The Hostages

RenMac ·

2025/10/17

RenMac unpacks rising credit concerns as regional bankswobble and private equity stress builds, contrasting credit risk with last year’s duration scare. Jeff draws upon lessons from Sir Isaac Newton’s South Sea bubble FOMO as today’s liquidity and AI enthusiasm risk repeating history, while Neil flags widening cracks in labor markets and a still-too-tight Fed. Pavs updates the prolonged shutdown, Trump’s trade maneuvers ahead of a Xi meeting, and Washington’s focus on growth over regulation amid

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283 results

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