PODCAST

Economy Watch

Interest.co.nz / Podcasts NZ, David Chaston, Gareth Vaughan, interest.co.nz

We follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.

business investing

All Episodes

00:05:11

Equities rise globally as earnings stay resilient

Economy Watch ·

2025/07/17

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Canada has conceded it has lost its dairy dispute with New Zealand.But first in the US, actual initial jobless claims in the US rose sharply to 261,000 from the previous week but that was less than seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 2,017,000 people on these

00:04:20

Bond market steepens yield curves on messy policy

Economy Watch ·

2025/07/16

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US yield curve has steepened overnight on messy talk about the US Fed's independence, and arbitrary US tariff statements.In more direct economic news, US mortgage applications fell sharply last week, even after adjusting for the holiday weekend. There were -10% lower than

00:06:25

Tariff-tax costs show up in US inflation

Economy Watch ·

2025/07/15

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US inflation is rising and tariffs are getting the blame.But first, the overnight dairy auction brought prices +1.1% higher in USD terms, +3.6% higher in NZD terms. It was the first rise we have had in these full auctions since yearly May. This time, the expected +2.5% rise

00:05:18

China shines again in difficult global reordering

Economy Watch ·

2025/07/14

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there may be trade policy chaos, and it may get worse, but you wouldn't know it from today's data, especially June data from China.But first, India said its CPI inflation is falling, and quite quickly now, taken lower by falling food prices. Their CPI fell for the eighth

00:07:03

Turning points passed?

Economy Watch ·

2025/07/13

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news August 1 is the new deadline for tariff negotiations with the US. It’s an endlessly moving 'deadline' bourne out of frustration at being unable to make any meaningful deals.This week will feature a first peek at June inflation components with the selected price data due out on

00:04:27

Silly season sentiment elevated

Economy Watch ·

2025/07/10

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news commodity currencies are in favour at the end of the week as global commodity prices get a halo boost from the taxes Americans are prepared to pay for commodities. Risk is in favour; 'greed is good' and blindness to the downside possibilities seems wilful. It helps that

00:04:18

The Trump pandemic twists American summer priorities

Economy Watch ·

2025/07/09

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of more tariff threats, but markets are over that drama, shoving its impact to the background. If there is news on a US-EU deal, then that will likely change.First in the US, even though the benchmark 30 year home loan interest rate was little-changed, mortgage applications

00:05:02

More tariff own-goals signaled

Economy Watch ·

2025/07/08

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US tariff threats are shifting from being aimed at trading 'partners' to a focus on commodities, today especially copper. Protection of favoured US business interests is the goal, cloaked in the labels of 'national security'.But first up today, the overnight dairy Pulse

00:04:45

Risk off as tariff shambles extends

Economy Watch ·

2025/07/07

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news financial markets have turned cautious, unsure of what to make of the set of 'tariff letters'.In Washington, because they couldn't complete tariff deals in the "90 deals in 90 days" to July 9, they have moved the 'deadline' to August 1. The shambles extends. And the capricious

00:05:48

Eyes on the RBA and RBNZ

Economy Watch ·

2025/07/06

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world is working out how live with a capricious America.First though, the week ahead will feature Wednesday afternoon's OCR review from the RBNZ, preceded Tuesday by the RBA's cash rate review. The Aussies are expected to cut their rate by -25 bps to 3.60% but the RBNZ is

00:05:53

'Big, beautiful' deficits locked in

Economy Watch ·

2025/07/03

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US budget bill has now been approved by Congress setting up a big shift in fortunes for big business at the expense of those on low incomes - and handing their future generations a substantially larger deficit headache. In fact, one so large, it will impact the global

00:05:05

Financial markets stay positive while waiting for key...

Economy Watch ·

2025/07/02

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the financial markets are awaiting the reconciliation of the US budget bill between the Senate and House versions. And they are waiting for news of "the countries lining up to make a [tariff] deal". There only seems to be one, Vietnam, and the details of that 'deal' remain

00:06:05

US adopting budgetary self-harm

Economy Watch ·

2025/07/01

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US Senate has agreed the Trump budget, but only after the Vice President broke a deadlock with a casting vote. Financial markets are wondering about the wisdom in all this with equities hesitating, bond yields turning up, and the USD drifting lower. To be fair, none of

00:05:10

Bond markets await US budget vote

Economy Watch ·

2025/06/30

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US budget debate has financial markets on edge.But first up today, the Chicago PMI did not report the expected modest bounceback in June from the very weak May result. In fact is stayed in a severe contraction, disappointing everyone involved. It's been nearly three years

00:06:20

Halfway through a year of little progress

Economy Watch ·

2025/06/29

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are now halfway through 2025, closer to the next summer holiday break than the last one. We may need it more this time because economic 'progress' is hard to find.Looking ahead this week, the big end of month data dumps for May from the RBNZ will give us an updated look at

00:04:44

Markets shun the US dollar

Economy Watch ·

2025/06/26

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news its all about the US and the sharp weakening of the greenback. It is now at its lowest level since early 2022. And a key part of the reason is worries about the Trump attack on the Fed's independence.Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims have stayed elevated although they fell

00:04:47

Inflation drivers puzzle Americans

Economy Watch ·

2025/06/25

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news tariff-tax cost threats to inflation are being joined by seasonal climate threats in the US.First, it is hot in large parts of the US, including the heavily populated North-East. Air-conditioners are working overtime. And that means electricity grids are overloaded. Retail

00:05:26

US economic performance now lagging most key rivals

Economy Watch ·

2025/06/24

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US dollar is falling, and the benchmark US 10 year treasury yield is down also, near a seven week low. These are the key reactions to the easing of Middle East hostilities.But first up today, we should note that the weekly Pulse dairy auction for the two main powder

00:05:05

Financial markets ignore geopolitical risks

Economy Watch ·

2025/06/23

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets seemed relieved that the Iranians responded in a localised and 'measured' way to the US attack. They took this as a sign the conflict will stay regional. Even the oil price eased back. To financial markets, 'normal' doesn't look like it is being threatened.But that is

00:06:54

Hot wars, hot weather, cold data

Economy Watch ·

2025/06/22

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world's two largest economies are showing outsized vulnerabilities - geopolitical, economic, and environmental.First in China, the eye-catching retreat of foreign direct investment in April (a net outflow -US$4.8 bln) was arrested in May, positive by +US$17.8 bln for the

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Economy Watch

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