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PODCAST

RenMac

Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to

business investing

All Episodes

16:13

RenMac Off-Script: Powell’s Performance

RenMac ·

2023/06/23

The RenMac team discusses Powell’s performance before lawmakers, why the Fed may be offsides on housing and economic growth, data still supporting a housing trifecta, how a presidential election could complicate future Fed moves, the politics of the Hunter Biden plea deal, and why utilities and BBB spreads are supporting a bullish outlook.

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15:51

RenMac Off-Script: The Powell Pause

RenMac ·

2023/06/16

The RenMac team discusses the market response to the Fed pause, why the risk for the Fed is taking their feet off the brakes too soon, receding recession risk, contained credit spreads, and the growing threat of a September spending shutdown in Congress.

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16:32

RenMac Off-Script: Incrementally Capitulating

RenMac ·

2023/06/09

The RenMac team discusses the labor market, the gravitation towards beta, looking for contraction in BBB spreads, the growing Republican rift on defense spending, the politics and the precedent of the latest Trump indictment, market incrementalism towards cyclicality.

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16:28

RenMac Off-Script: Plenty of Payrolls

RenMac ·

2023/06/02

The RenMac team discusses whether the strong payrolls number will impact the Fed, why a June skip is still likely, the winners and losers of the debt limit debate, why semiconductors are a winner in the stock market, and bullish conditions in the market cycle clock for a new month.

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17:04

RenMac Off-Script: Ronning For President

RenMac ·

2023/05/26

The RenMac team discusses the debt limit calendar, why the onus is on the growth bears to justify their position, why housing could be more important moving forward, noncompliant credit markets, how the consensus consistently underestimates job growth, the weakness in China, and the Ron DeSantis campaign launch.

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17:51

RenMac Off-Script: Debt Limit Diffused

RenMac ·

2023/05/19

RenMac discusses why it’s increasingly likely a debt limit agreement is complete before the June 1 deadline, the entry of Florida Governor DeSantis in the 2024 race for the White House, the strong economic data over the last week and why the consensus is still offsides, and the breakout in software at the expense of materials.

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23:18

RenMac Off-Script: Debt Limit Drama

RenMac ·

2023/05/12

RenMac discusses the improving odds around a debt limit deal, how the latest inflation data bolsters the chances for a Fed pause this summer, the flukiness in jobless claims because of Massachusetts, why complaining about lack of breadth is really an excuse for underperformance, and gift ideas for Mother’s Day.

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15:21

RenMac Off-Script: Confidence Game

RenMac ·

2023/05/05

The RenMac team discusses the latest jobs blowout, why the Fed is less likely to cut now, the importance of nominal incomes, how the banking consternation is not causing a bigger market reaction, why breadth improves to match the market but not the other way around, little change in the put/call ratios, and the latest on the debt limit drama.

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20:21

RenMac Off-Script: Logic Isn’t Truth

RenMac ·

2023/04/28

The RenMac team discusses the view from London, the mixed message from breadth and international equities, strength in the housing market, the drag on inventories in 1Q23, why the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be the rematch that few people want, and how a recession could be the bears worst nightmare.

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18:34

RenMac Off-Script: Homebuilder Highs

RenMac ·

2023/04/21

The RenMac team discusses Philadelphia vs. the Empire economic data, how crude oil and yields are exhibiting downtrend characteristics, whether the Fed’s next move after a pause would be a hike or a cut, homebuilder optimism, Neil’s love of nuance, the latest act in the D.C. debt limit drama, why Biden is betting on a rematch with Trump, and a potential bounce for banks.

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19:57

RenMac Off-Script: M2’s Declining Relevance

RenMac ·

2023/04/14

The RenMac Team is joined by financials/payments analyst Howard Mason to discuss the turmoil in the banking industry, what the latest data means for the Fed’s future moves (or lack thereof), the EPA’s aspirational EV emissions proposal, the declining relevancy of M2, and the ebullience in equities.

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17:04

RenMac Off-Script: Jobs Give Fed Benefit of Time

RenMac ·

2023/04/07

RenMac discusses why the March employment report is a win for the soft-landing bulls, the Fed’s wait and see approach with a tightening bias, the outperformance of global equities, the intrinsic value of gold, the Taiwanese president’s “transit” trip to the US, and Xi’s diplomatic push into OPEC.

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17:57

RenMac Off-Script: Ham Sandwiches Can Be Indicted

RenMac ·

2023/03/31

The RenMac team discusses Neil’s bourbon trail trip, Trump indictment politics, the Fed’s failure to prevent the collapse of SVB, where is San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, why Powell’s next move is still more likely a hike after skipping May, the importance of housing, tech breaking out, why seasonality and sentiment are still trending in the right direction.

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17:13

RenMac Off-Script: No Middle Ground in a Banking...

RenMac ·

2023/03/24

Blurb The RenMac Team discusses the Fed’s 25 bps move, how one’s view of a banking crisis determines their outlook on future interest decisions, the politics of a pending Trump indictment, whether the Fed’s tolerance for inflation is higher now, why technology is breaking out, and whether REITs are so bad they’re good.

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21:35

RenMac Off-Script: Banking March Madness

RenMac ·

2023/03/17

The RenMac team discusses the impact of SVB collapse on the banking industry, how it is becoming politicized, whether SVB was a feature or bug of the Fed’s actions, why the Fed is likely to go 25 bps next week, deposit circularity, the befuddling bitcoin bounce, cyclicals performing better than defensives, and big tech breaking out.

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13:33

RenMac Off-Script: Neutral Needs To Be Higher

RenMac ·

2023/03/10

The RenMac team discusses the latest payroll print, why the Fed’s work is not done, the higher bar for not going 50bps, why neutral needs to be higher, Biden’s revival of the Build Back Better budget request and why it is DOA with a Republican House, industrials continue to perform, discretionary is still intact, losing defensives like utilities and stapes, and banks are oversold.

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18:29

RenMac Off-Script: Psyched for Cyclicality

RenMac ·

2023/03/03

The RenMac team discusses the improvement in global manufacturing and services PMIs, why a need to rebuild inventories could lead to strong manufacturing growth, how the rest of the world is following the early cycle script, the value vs. values debate regarding ESG on the Hill, the Supreme Court’s skepticism over Biden’s student loan relief plan, why the market cycle clock is in the bullish direction, the deterioration in defensives like health care, and reasons to get psyched for cyclicality.

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15:28

RenMac Off-Script: An Anniversary Not Worth Celebrating

RenMac ·

2023/02/24

The RenMac team discusses the Ukraine anniversary, China’s increasing role in the conflict, Dow theory and the movement of averages for tomorrow, whether oversold conditions can hold, the return of NPV, how conditions could shift towards value, and why active could benefit over passive moving forward.

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13:00

RenMac Off-Script: February Can’t Cool the Data

RenMac ·

2023/02/17

The RenMac team discusses the new CBO debt limit “X-date” forecast, how Kevin McCarthy can use his Taiwan trip as leverage to get spending concessions from Biden, why the economic data is increasing the odds of the Fed raising interest rates closer to 6% this year, the post-breakout pause, improving credit conditions, and rate resiliency.

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16:56

RenMac Off-Script: Great Expectations

RenMac ·

2023/02/10

The RenMac team discusses Biden’s State of the Union address, 2024 implications, why the Fed is likely to maintain its higher-for-longer approach to interest rates, housing and Europe looking good despite expectations, why tech remains tricky outside of semis, and how good economic news next week might be bad for bonds.

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277 results

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