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Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

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14:32

SA expects ample summer grains and oilseeds harvest

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/05/02

The Crop Estimates Committee's data reaffirmed our optimism about South Africa's 2022/23 summer grains and oilseeds production season. Maize production is estimated at 15,9 million tonnes, up mildly from last month's estimate and 3% higher than the 2021/22 season's harvest. The current harvest is the third-largest harvest on record. The harvest improvement is primarily on the back of expected large yields, as the area planted is slightly down from the 2021/22 season. About 8,4 million tonnes is

14:41

Challenges facing the SA livestock industry

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/04/24

South Africa's livestock industry has faced numerous challenges over the past few years. One of these was the rise in feed prices since 2020, especially for maize and soybeans. The rise in animal feed prices coincided with a worsening in consumers financial strain due to the damaging effects of the pandemic. Thus, we saw a decline in the demand for red meat products as consumers opted for relatively cheaper forms of protein. Moreover, the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to six of South

16:32

Why April is a critical month for SA agriculture

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/04/17

April is an important month in South Africa's agricultural sector, especially for field crops. Later this month, farmers in the Western and Northern Cape, Free State, Limpopo and other winter crop growing regions will start preparing the land for 2023/24 winter wheat, canola, barley and oats production. For now, it is unclear how much area will be planted for each crop. The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) will release the farmers' intentions to plant data, and key figures for the potential area

13:09

Africa is an important market for SA agriculture

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/04/11

Although I continue to argue that South Africa should expand its agricultural export markets to new frontiers such as India, China, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea, amongst others, the export drive should not be at the expense of the existing markets. We should actively engage with existing markets to promote further growth of exports of South African agricultural products. The engagement needs not only to focus on the EU and Asia, both crucial regions for our export growth, but also on

12:23

One of SA's great agricultural seasons

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/04/03

Ample grains and oilseeds harvest in SA We have now received additional comforting information that the erratic weather conditions at the start of the 2022/23 summer production season had minimal impact on South Africa’s summer grains and oilseeds. The data released by the Crop Estimates Committee las week places South Africa’s 2022/23 summer grains and oilseeds production at 19,6 million tonnes, up 2% from last month’s figure and 5% higher than the previous season. This is primarily on the back

17:16

Sentiments in SA agriculture

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/03/26

This week we discuss sentiments in SA agriculture and agribusiness. This is an important matter because it influences the long-term investment path and growth of the sector. The sentiments in agriculture are measured through the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI). In its recent reading, after a 4-point decline in Q4 2022, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) deteriorated further by 5 points in Q1 2023 to 44. The current reading is the lowest since Q2 2020 when Covid-19

14:22

How South Africa may leverage the BRICS chair for...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/03/20

Despite BRICS not being a trade bloc, its economic cooperation arrangement offers South Africa a strategic platform to advance its trade interests. The agricultural sector is interested in this grouping, mainly in advancing exports into China and India. These countries already import a sizable volume and value of agricultural products from the world market, and South African businesses want to join these suppliers. The main products that South Africa should promote within this grouping are fruits,

17:15

A conversation with Eugene Willemsen of PepsiCo

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/03/13

This past week I sat down with Eugene Willemsen. Eugen is the Chief Executive Officer for Africa, Middle East and South Asia (AMESA) at PepsiCo. With a rich career spanning over 27 years in PepsiCo, Eugene has risen through the ranks to steer the AMESA region valued at $6.1B in annual net revenue (as of 2021) and supporting over 26,000 jobs across 74 markets. We talked briefly about PepsiCo’s views on climate change, its programmes and work in Africa, and some exciting work PepsiCo is doing on food

13:22

Positive outlook for SA summer crops

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/03/06

The start of South Africa's 2022/23 summer crop production season was challenging for farmers and agricultural role players because of excessive rains. Crop planting in various regions of the country was delayed by roughly a month, threatening yield prospects. But the warm weather at the end of January and much of February helped improve conditions on the farms. It thus eased concerns about the possibility of smaller yields due to excessive soil moisture. Moreover, the persistent load-shedding

13:23

Policies ripe for implementation in SA agriculture

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/02/27

There is so much in the implementation pipeline of South Africa’s agriculture policy this year. The past four years have largely seen various initiatives that sought to inject confidence in the sector. These are now ripe for implementation, especially ahead of the 2024 general elections. A major development in recent times was the launch of the Agriculture and Agro-processing Masterplan, which offers government and the private sector a new possibility to grow the sector, build competitiveness,

15:13

Solid exports in SA agriculture

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/02/20

Despite various headwinds throughout the year, South Africa's agriculture exports for 2022 did not decline as much as some feared. Data for the first eleven months of the year show exports at a cumulative US$11,9 billion, up by 3% from the same period in 2021. Moreover, US$11,9 billion is the second largest agriculture exports value on record. When we receive the December exports figure in the coming weeks, it is possible that the 2022 agricultural exports could be just under 2021 levels of

20:35

With Dr. Johnny van der Merwe on grains

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/02/13

I was on a call with Dr Johnny can der Merwe, an agricultural economist at North West University discussing the grain markets, and we decided to record the chart and release the audio here. Broadly, we are both optimistic about South Africa’s 2022/23 grain and oilseed production conditions, and see prices softening towards mid-year. Wandile Sihlobo website

17:17

SA maize and wine outlook

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/02/06

The latest harvest news in wine grapes and maize paints a mixed outlook for these two subsectors. In this week’s podcast, we explore the production conditions in these separate subsectors, and the outlook for the harvest. First, South Africa’s wine grapes for this year are projected to be lower than the 2022 harvest because of unfavourable weather conditions earlier in the season. The South African Wine Industry Statistics will release its production estimates later in February but has already

17:17

El Nino on the horizon

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/01/30

As the deepening energy crisis continues to present problems for different parts of the agricultural sector, another major challenge that could confront South Africa's agricultural sector in a few months is a change in weather conditions from favourable rains to drier and hot conditions. This would be a switch from a prolonged period of La Niña to El Niño. South Africa has had a good four seasons of La Niña induced heavy rains from 2019/20 to 2022/23. These above-normal rains supported agriculture

17:27

Energy crisis now a food security risk

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/01/23

There is probably no issue more urgent than the worsening energy crisis for South Africa's agriculture and agribusinesses. Farmers who rely on irrigation have all expressed concerns that persistent loadshedding negatively affects production. In crucial field crops, roughly 20% of maize, 15% of soybean, 34% of sugarcane and nearly half of the wheat production are produced under irrigation. Fruits and vegetables also heavily rely on irrigation and thus face similar challenges. In red meat, poultry,

17:32

Crumbling basic infrastructure limits agriculture and...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/01/16

The interlinked problems of poverty, unemployment and weak economic activity continue to plague rural towns and communities in SA. However, the two industries that could help ease some of these challenges — agriculture and tourism — face various constraints that limit their growth potential. Beyond the big topics of ambiguous land reform and international trade in the case of agriculture, the everyday challenge for farmers, agribusinesses and tourism entities is the dire state of local road

15:26

The State of SA Countryside

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/01/09

My annual December drive from Pretoria to the Wild Coast in the Eastern Cape always allows me to assess South Africa's agricultural conditions after the first few months of the summer season. Whether one enjoys this trip largely depends on weather conditions. In drought seasons like in 2015, this could be a depressing drive, traversing the dry grains and oilseed fields. Conversely, this could be an uplifting drive in rainy seasons, with green and lush fields visible from the highway. Thank

12:12

Key trends in SA agriculture in 2023

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/01/02

Happy new year folks, South Africa's agriculture will likely have a downbeat start into 2023. The gross agricultural value added for 2022, which will be released in March, will probably show a mild contraction. This would be a notable shift from two consecutive years of solid growth, with the sector expanding by 14,9% y/y in 2020 and 8,8% y/y in 2021. Mild declines in critical crop harvests such as maize, production challenges in the sugar industry, trade friction in fruits, vegetables, beef and

15:03

Jobs in SA agriculture

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/12/26

In this week’s segment, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo reflects on South Africa’s agricultural jobs data for the third quarter of 2022. Although South Africa's agricultural sector faced numerous challenges in the 2021/22 production season – from tough production conditions in grains and oilseeds, disease outbreaks in livestock, and trade barriers in horticulture – the sector sustained jobs. In the third quarter of this year, there were 873 000 people in primary agriculture. This is up by 5%

14:06

SA tractor sales decline in November 2022

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/12/19

In this week’s segment, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo reflects on South Africa’s agricultural machinery sales. After registering positive growth since May 2020, South Africa’s tractor sales fell by 5% year-on-year in November 2022, with 704 units sold. Still, the current sales are well above the long-term monthly average of 565 units, and reflect an environment where farmers were financially secured and confident about the seasons ahead, and thus increased investment in movable assets

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Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

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