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Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

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16:51

SA agricultural exports up 10% in Q3

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/12/12

In this week’s segment, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo reflects on South Africa’s agricultural trade for the third quarter of 2023. South Africa's agricultural trade data paint an encouraging picture, although the sector continues to struggle with poor roads network and inefficiencies in some rail networks and ports. On the latter, there are promising discussions between Transnet and the agricultural industry focused on improving efficiencies and exploring co-investment options in some

20:18

Resilience of SA agriculture

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/12/06

In this week's segment, I focus on critical events shaping South Africa's agriculture and performance. I expect a mild contraction in the gross value added following two years of solid growth. Still, it is essential to note that overall activity has remained strong, and the sector has maintained its core contribution of improving national food security and job creation. I also discuss in the podcast key programmes that were launched, such as the Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan and the

28:14

Land Reform in South Africa

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/11/30

In this week’s special segment, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo speaks with Professor Johann Kirsten, Director of the Bureau for Economic Research, Stellenbosch University, about an article he co-authored with him on South Africa’s land reform. Here is an extract: South Africa’s land reform policy remains highly contested. But, in our view, a number of persistent myths about farmland statistics and the structure of commercial agriculture skew debates. This makes it difficult to reach some

17:39

Optimism about SA maize harvest

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/11/28

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) 's Pretoria office is a key institution and it is worthwhile to keep an eye on their views. They recently released an updated view of South Africa's 2022/23 maize production season, leaning strongly towards the views of South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee (CEC). They forecast the country's commercial maize plantings at 2,60 million hectares in the 2022/23 season, broadly aligned with the CEC, whose data points to a possible area of 2,59

17:38

Heavy rains in SA agriculture

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/11/23

In this week’s podcast segment, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo shares his observations of how the heavy rains in South Africa influence farm activity. He provides granular insights into each agricultural subsector. For example, the rains have had a mixed impact on fruits, where Banana and macadamia fields were distracted in parts of Mpumalanga. In contrast, the overall country and other fruits were left untouched. In the field crops, the sugarcane fields thrive in these rains, while maize

17:06

Highest tractor sales in 40 years

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/11/14

I have been closely following South Africa's monthly tractors sales data, and the results remain encouraging. Since April 2020, the monthly sales have remained positive, registering an average of 26% y/y growth over the past 31 months. When this year started, I thought the farmers would reduce spending on agricultural machinery as fertilizer, agrochemicals and fuel prices increased aggressively along with a rise in the interest rates, all of which added financial pressure on farmers. I also

19:06

Favourable agriculture season for SA

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/11/08

In this week's podcast episode, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo provides an update on South Africa's agricultural conditions. He highlights that signals point to another favourable agricultural season for South Africa and the broader southern Africa region in 2022/23. He cites the Seasonal Climate Watch report recently released by the South African Weather Service (SAWS), which highlighted that "the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is currently in a La Niña state, and forecasts indicate that it

15:19

Kenya embracing genetically modified crops

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/10/31

In this week’s episode, the agricultural economist, Wandile Sihlobo, assesses what Kenya’s decision to lift the ban on the cultivation and importing of genetically modified (GM) white maize means. Kenya’s President, William Ruto, a scientist with a PhD, made this change in response to growing food insecurity in the country. Kenya has struggled with drought in the recent past and remains a net importer of maize. There will be an assessment of each GM trait by the Kenyan Biosafety Authority before

16:29

Global agricultural conditions

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/10/24

In this week’s segment, agricultural economist, Wandile Sihlobo, explores the global agricultural conditions for the 2022/23 season, with a specific focus on grains and oilseeds. In painting this global picture, Sihlobo utilizes the grains and oilseeds production estimates from the International Grains Council (IGC). In essence, the 2022/23 global grain and oilseed season presents a comfortable picture of supplies. The 2022/23 global grain and oilseed production is estimated at 2,26 billion tonnes

20:49

South Africa’s Food Security Conditions

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/10/17

October 16 marked World Food Day, commemorating the founding of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in 1945. Across the world, this day offers an opportunity for countries to assess their food security conditions and efforts to boost agricultural production. One of the measures that some often use to evaluate the food security condition of each country relative to the world is The Economist's Global Food Security Index, which Corteva sponsors. This Index ranks South Africa at 59

14:49

What a possible strike at Transnet would mean for SA...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/10/11

One major challenge that emerged this past week that directly impacts South Africa's agriculture is the possible strike at Transnet. The weekend papers cited statements by the representatives of the South African Transport and Allied Workers Union (Satawu) and the United National Transport Union (Untu) that demand a wage increase of a minimum of 10%, with an initial demand being 13,5%. This is far steep from the current offer by Transnet at 4%. Thus, Satawu talks of a possible strike on Monday,

15:43

SA starts the 2022/23 crop season

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/10/03

South Africa is starting the 2022/23 summer crop production season this month. The preliminary insights suggest that South Africa could have another good season. The three critical indicators we have thus far, i.e., (1) the tractor sales, (2) the weather outlook for the next four months, and (3) grains and oilseed prices, paint a positive outlook for the 2022/23 season. In this week’s podcast segment, agricultural economist, Wandile Sihlobo, provides insights into these indicators and the broader

19:04

Agricultural input prices elevated

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/09/27

While some farmers in the grains and oilseeds industry benefited from the unusually long period of large yields and higher prices, higher input costs since the start of 2020 have limited the benefits. For farmers in the horticulture industry, where commodity prices did not increase as much as in grains, the higher input costs were an even heavier burden. These price increases were mainly in agrochemicals (herbicides, fungicides, insecticides), fertilizers and fuel. Various factors caused the

19:04

Wheat in South Africa

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/09/19

If one is not dealing with a particular commodity in their daily business, they rarely keep an eye on whether it is produced sufficiently locally or imported. The main concern for consumers is always whether they get their preferred products on shelves when they go to the store. This has been the reality of wheaten products in South Africa. Hence, some South Africans realising that the country imports roughly half of its annual wheat consumption has sparked a discussion about why it is not expanding

18:14

SA is in a weather market

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/09/14

We are a month away from the start of the 2022/23 summer season. Farmers in the eastern regions of South Africa, which includes the eastern Free State, Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape, will start planting by mid-October. This will primarily be summer grains and oilseed plantings. The Northern Hemisphere experienced extreme heat and drought these past few months, which prompted us to wonder if the Southern Hemisphere could experience similar extremes in the upcoming 2022/23 summer

24:32

SA agriculture exports up 5% in Q2, 2022

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/09/05

Trade is at the core of South Africa's agricultural progress. But the past few months brought challenges in key markets such as China and the EU, threatening South Africa's export activity. Fortunately, some of these challenges have now been resolved, and South Africa could see continuous exports, specifically to China. We now also have the second quarter data of South Africa's agricultural exports, which shows a 5% improvement from the first quarter of 2021. The top exportable products were

22:36

Challenges in SA farming

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/08/29

To understand the real challenges of farmers, it is necessary to spend a considerable amount of time on the ground talking to farmers and to get a better feel of the markets. In such engagements in the last week of August 2022, one theme that came up time and again in most discussions with role players in the sector, is the need for the diversification of the export markets to non-traditional regions while retaining the sector’s foothold in key markets such as the European Union. Other issues that

18:16

SA agricultural exports could decline

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/08/22

South Africa's agricultural export activity will likely soften this year from the 2021 record of US$12,4 billion. Lower production of key crops, animal disease spread and changes in phytosanitary regulations in key markets such as the EU will all weigh on the export activity this year. The changes in export volumes and values might not show in the year's first half but will likely reflect in the second half of the year. In this week’s segment, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo unpacks South

19:13

Southern and East Africa maize supplies

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/08/14

In the current environment where food security is at the top of the global agenda, we must review the Southern and East Africa region’s staple grains supplies. Maize is one such important staple grain for both food and animal feed. South Africa, Zambia, and Tanzania are the major producers of maize in the region, and all face a double-digit decline this year. The question then is whether there will be sufficient maize supplies for the region if all the key suppliers face a decrease in the harvest

15:30

SA agricultural outlook 2022/23

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2022/08/08

As the harvest for the 2021/22 summer crop season draws to a close, the focus is shifting towards the 2022/23 production season, which commences in October. The preliminary insights suggest that South Africa could have another good season. However, we fear the extreme rains and heat observed in the northern hemisphere summer season could be a reality here as home too. Still, the three critical indicators we have thus far, i.e., (1) the tractor sales, (2) the weather outlook for the next five months,

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Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

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