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PODCAST

RenMac

Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to

business investing

All Episodes

34:39

RenMac Off-Script: Tariff Tangle Reignited

RenMac ·

2025/07/11

RenMac’s crew dives into recent tariff announcements, the unpriced probability of a U.S. Govt shutdown in October, Momentum vs Beta, Fed’s stance on interest rates and surface level employment data, Bitcoin’s breakout and vacationing in Medellin in the summer.

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26:52

RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls, PMIs & Poolside Predictions

RenMac ·

2025/07/04

RenMac dives into the July 4th weekend with a fresh look at the payroll surprise, Fed expectations, the global PMI paradox, and whether the market can stomach high rates. Neil unpacks sluggish job growth beneath the headline beat, Jeff outlines the capex-driven cyclicals leading the rally, and the crew debates whether PMIs and yield curves have lost their forecasting mojo. Plus: why financials might shine, how real yields shape allocation, and yes—cucumber gin makes another cameo.

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35:44

RenMac Off-Script: The Apprentice: Fed Edition

RenMac ·

2025/06/27

RenMac discusses the case to be made for the next Fed chair, the latest on crude oil, the Middle East, July’s seasonal strength, the perceived disconnect between markets and the economy and the reality of that perception, along with a suggested golf handicap adjustment.

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35:47

RenMac Off-Script: Is Tehran About to Eat a TACO?

RenMac ·

2025/06/20

RenMac walks through this week’s Fed decision, Iran’s exit ramp, weakness in housing, the Byrd Bath, RMs 20% allocation to commodities, the overbought condition in oil and the momentum in financials.

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32:50

RenMac Off-Script: TDS Gives Way to IDF

RenMac ·

2025/06/13

RenMac Discusses TDS (Tariff Derangement Syndrome) giving way to IDF (Israeli Defense Forces), message out of real-rates, the employment picture, trajectory of the Fed, breakout in precious metals and Tuesday’s Senate bill on stablecoin.

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25:36

RenMac Off-Script: Caught in a Bad Bromance

RenMac ·

2025/06/06

RenMac discusses the latest payroll print and why the Fed may use it to stay on the sidelines, the improvement in small-cap performance, the call between Xi and Trump, and the implications of the fallout between Musk and Trump.

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32:36

RenMac Off-Script: TACO: Tariffs Are Constitutional...

RenMac ·

2025/05/30

RenMac discuss the latest developments on the tariff front, the administration’s multiple avenues to pursue their trade agenda, the slowing in the labor and housing markets, and the nuance behind the adage of “sell in May and go away.”

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37:12

RenMac Off-Script Podcast: More to Rates than U.S....

RenMac ·

2025/05/23

RenMac talks government bonds, the divergence in the $ and rates, the global repudiation of government debt, and the implications, Bitcoin’s new high, Trump’s tax bill, and the importance of momentum from this point forward.

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36:13

RenMac Off-Script Podcast: GOP Bond Boo-Boo?

RenMac ·

2025/05/16

RenMac double-clicks on bond market’s message, GOP reconciliation, deGraaf’s Thrust and implications, Gold’s seasonality, energy implications and Knicks vs Celtics

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38:09

RenMac Off-Script: Holy Smokes

RenMac ·

2025/05/09

RenMac dives into the latest on tariffs, Powell’s position, the RenMac Retest Rule, Communion suggestions for the new Pope, how the markets and the economy are similar but different, and the definition of a Knickerbocker

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42:09

RenMac Off-Script: Strategic Uncertainty

RenMac ·

2025/05/02

RenMac unpacks the latest employment report, the discrepancy between soft and hard data, the importance of considering “what can go right vs wrong” when bearish sentiment is at an extreme, the potential for thawing trade negotiations, the lack of escape velocity in this market but why we’re not pulling the plug on our tactical call, this week’s mail bag, and Jeff’s long-shot Derby play.

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28:15

RenMac Off-Script: Clock Ticking on Trade

RenMac ·

2025/04/25

RenMac discusses Trump backing off on Powell’s firing, why a slower growth environment could mean a more consensus Fed pick, the latest in trade negotiations, what areas to watch to see how survey-data and hard-data reconcile, what tactical indicators we use to see where the bond market is headed, and a preview of next week’s employment data.

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35:10

RenMac Off-Script: “You're Fired”?

RenMac ·

2025/04/18

RenMac discusses the importance of the Fed’s independence, the likely options, the dark-cross in the Mag-7 and the implications historically for alpha generation, the latest on trade, the cards other countries may be able to play against the U.S. and why the dollar is an important window into the soul of a nation, plus a special Good Friday Mail-bag.

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50:43

RenMac Off-Script: Bond Market Takes Hostages

RenMac ·

2025/04/11

RenMac walks through the turmoil in bonds, China’s alternatives to creating negotiation leverage, deleveraging vs system risk, increasing recession outlook, tariff miscalculation, rising correlations, and the implications of the 10th best single day on the S&P in 100-years.

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49:35

RenMac Off-Script: Obliteration Day

RenMac ·

2025/04/04

RenMac discusses the difference between trade deficits and tariffs, the “escalate to de-escalate” strategy, today’s payroll numbers, how the Fed is thinking about rates, the spike in capitulation measures, and having a mind-set of “what can go right”.

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36:50

RenMac Off-Script: Bad News Priced

RenMac ·

2025/03/28

RenMac discusses the upcoming “Liberation Day,” why much of the bad news might already be priced in, the strike price on the respective Trump and Fed put, and how economic conditions were already slowing before Trump was sworn into office, and AI’s mailbag gone wrong.

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40:30

RenMac Off-Script: Tariffied

RenMac ·

2025/03/21

RenMac unpacks the FOMC meeting, Trump’s conversation with Putin, the deteriorating transportation names, tariff uncertainty, the likelihood of a downside economic surprise in coming months, Schumer’s unwinnable position and how moving averages can help generate alpha.

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41:02

RenMac Off-Script: Eggs-cellent

RenMac ·

2025/03/14

RenMac discusses the potential strategy behind Schumer’s decision to avoid a government shutdown, the contribution of egg prices to CPI, the deteriorating news flow with the spike in bearish market sentiment, the potential Canadian tariff strategy (or lack thereof), why we’re not playing this as a bear-market and this week’s mailbag regarding market tops.

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33:22

RenMac Off-Script: A Weak Outlook Trump's Making Worse

RenMac ·

2025/03/07

RenMac dissects the payrolls, the latest tariff moves, the importance of credit indications and the complete unwind of beta as well as this weeks mail-bag.

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26:24

RenMac Off-Script: Policy Uncertainty

RenMac ·

2025/02/28

Renmac talks through the latest policy uncertainty and its history on markets, Neil interprets the latest housing and income data and how today is mirror image of 2022. Steve discusses the March 14th budget deadline and Jeff walks through the beta reversion and what look vulnerable at this point.

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268 results

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