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PODCAST

RenMac

Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to

business investing

All Episodes

00:00:35

RenMac Mailbag Question Introduce

RenMac ·

2025/09/09

They say some people have a face for radio.You? You've got a face for Off-Script.Send us your question via video or audio clip for the RenMac Mailbag.Fame optional. Hats guaranteed.https://start.renmac.com/renmac-mailbag-video

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00:37:44

RenMac Off-Script: Jobs Stumble as Gold Runs

RenMac ·

2025/09/05

In Today’s Report: RenMac unpacks a payrolls miss that highlights rising slack in the labor market, why consumer sentiment has flipped from bullish to a bearish contrarian signal, and how government shutdown odds are climbing well above normal. The team also digs into gold’s breakout amid falling yields, the shifting dynamics between semis, small caps, and cyclicals, and the political maneuvering around Fed appointments and trade with Mexico and Canada.

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48:11

RenMac Off-Script: China Breakout & Fed Shakeout

RenMac ·

2025/08/29

This week on RenMac Off-Script, Steve, Jeff, and Pavlik are joined by special guest Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The team digs into the Fed shakeup after President Trump’s firing of Lisa Cook, the implications for market stability, and whether “norms” still matter in policy. They also discuss the rally in gold, cracks in the labor market, small caps leading equities higher, China’s breakout, and client psychology in a too-good-to-be-true market. Plus: Josh previews the Future Proof

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34:15

We’ll Take Your Money, Not Your Two Cents

RenMac ·

2025/08/22

RenMac unpacks why Asian and frontier markets are rallying despite tariffs, how Trump’s industrial policy is morphing into “state capitalism,” the risks of politicizing Fed appointments with the Lisa Cook scandal, and why stagflation fears are misplaced as tight credit spreads argue against recession, even as beta keeps breaking down and momentum holds up

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34:51

RenMac Off-Script: Money Illusion

RenMac ·

2025/08/15

RenMac discusses the latest in economic data, including how prices are flattering retail sales; the leap to get the FOMC to support a 50bp move; market leadership from small caps to Asia and the improvement in consumer discretionary relative to staples; and why the government’s stake in Intel is part of a more muscular industrial policy approach to strategic sectors.

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34:57

RenMac Off-Script: Trump/Powell Play Chicken

RenMac ·

2025/08/08

RenMac breaks down the sharp rise in effective tariffs and who’s really paying for them, how firms may react to margin pressure with layoffs or price hikes, the macro regime shift that’s pulling markets back to pre-GFC behavior, how game theory is guiding Trump’s Fed chess match and whether or not Waller is already acting as shadow Fed chair

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36:34

RenMac Off-Script: Summer Soft-Patch

RenMac ·

2025/08/01

RenMac unpacks the sharp job revisions and weakening prime-age employment suggesting contraction, explores the Fed’s credibility crisis and potential for a September-to-December rate cut cycle, critiques Trump’s strategic positioning on the Fed Chair with Waller as the dark horse and flag narrowing breadth, seasonality risks, and why copper’s news-driven breakout may be a trap.

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42:07

RenMac Off-Script: Don't Fist Fight the Fed

RenMac ·

2025/07/25

RenMac talks tariffs and who really bears the burden, Trump’s Fed site-visit and true objective, the narrow market excuse and why it’s more bearish propaganda than insightful utility, and the negative global liquidity story imbedded in JGB normalization and the Yen carry trade unwind.

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35:38

RenMac Off-Script: Shutdown Surprise

RenMac ·

2025/07/18

RenMac discusses the Fed Chair race and Trump’s strategy, NVDA-led chip diplomacy with China and crypto legislation, markets ignoring rising shutdown risks, seasonal patterns shifting the beta/momentum trade, and the unusual dynamic of rising rates and falling currencies.

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34:39

RenMac Off-Script: Tariff Tangle Reignited

RenMac ·

2025/07/11

RenMac’s crew dives into recent tariff announcements, the unpriced probability of a U.S. Govt shutdown in October, Momentum vs Beta, Fed’s stance on interest rates and surface level employment data, Bitcoin’s breakout and vacationing in Medellin in the summer.

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26:52

RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls, PMIs & Poolside Predictions

RenMac ·

2025/07/04

RenMac dives into the July 4th weekend with a fresh look at the payroll surprise, Fed expectations, the global PMI paradox, and whether the market can stomach high rates. Neil unpacks sluggish job growth beneath the headline beat, Jeff outlines the capex-driven cyclicals leading the rally, and the crew debates whether PMIs and yield curves have lost their forecasting mojo. Plus: why financials might shine, how real yields shape allocation, and yes—cucumber gin makes another cameo.

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35:44

RenMac Off-Script: The Apprentice: Fed Edition

RenMac ·

2025/06/27

RenMac discusses the case to be made for the next Fed chair, the latest on crude oil, the Middle East, July’s seasonal strength, the perceived disconnect between markets and the economy and the reality of that perception, along with a suggested golf handicap adjustment.

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35:47

RenMac Off-Script: Is Tehran About to Eat a TACO?

RenMac ·

2025/06/20

RenMac walks through this week’s Fed decision, Iran’s exit ramp, weakness in housing, the Byrd Bath, RMs 20% allocation to commodities, the overbought condition in oil and the momentum in financials.

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32:50

RenMac Off-Script: TDS Gives Way to IDF

RenMac ·

2025/06/13

RenMac Discusses TDS (Tariff Derangement Syndrome) giving way to IDF (Israeli Defense Forces), message out of real-rates, the employment picture, trajectory of the Fed, breakout in precious metals and Tuesday’s Senate bill on stablecoin.

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25:36

RenMac Off-Script: Caught in a Bad Bromance

RenMac ·

2025/06/06

RenMac discusses the latest payroll print and why the Fed may use it to stay on the sidelines, the improvement in small-cap performance, the call between Xi and Trump, and the implications of the fallout between Musk and Trump.

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32:36

RenMac Off-Script: TACO: Tariffs Are Constitutional...

RenMac ·

2025/05/30

RenMac discuss the latest developments on the tariff front, the administration’s multiple avenues to pursue their trade agenda, the slowing in the labor and housing markets, and the nuance behind the adage of “sell in May and go away.”

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37:12

RenMac Off-Script Podcast: More to Rates than U.S....

RenMac ·

2025/05/23

RenMac talks government bonds, the divergence in the $ and rates, the global repudiation of government debt, and the implications, Bitcoin’s new high, Trump’s tax bill, and the importance of momentum from this point forward.

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36:13

RenMac Off-Script Podcast: GOP Bond Boo-Boo?

RenMac ·

2025/05/16

RenMac double-clicks on bond market’s message, GOP reconciliation, deGraaf’s Thrust and implications, Gold’s seasonality, energy implications and Knicks vs Celtics

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38:09

RenMac Off-Script: Holy Smokes

RenMac ·

2025/05/09

RenMac dives into the latest on tariffs, Powell’s position, the RenMac Retest Rule, Communion suggestions for the new Pope, how the markets and the economy are similar but different, and the definition of a Knickerbocker

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42:09

RenMac Off-Script: Strategic Uncertainty

RenMac ·

2025/05/02

RenMac unpacks the latest employment report, the discrepancy between soft and hard data, the importance of considering “what can go right vs wrong” when bearish sentiment is at an extreme, the potential for thawing trade negotiations, the lack of escape velocity in this market but why we’re not pulling the plug on our tactical call, this week’s mail bag, and Jeff’s long-shot Derby play.

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277 results

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