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Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

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11:14

Factors shaping the state of South African agriculture

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/07/25

Various factors, both positive and negative, continue to shape South Africa's agricultural sector. Starting on a positive note, early signs suggest a high likelihood that the upcoming 2025-26 summer season may also present favourable rainfall conditions across South Africa.Current forecasts indicate a neutral season, which would be generally favourable and with average rainfall. But the occurrence of La Niña rains also remains a possibility, which helps to ease the worries of a swing from a La

10:29

South Africans can take a few more tonnes of...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/07/18

Brazil is a major producer of coffee, accounting for nearly 40% of global coffee production. Other major producers are Vietnam 17%, Colombia 8%, Indonesia 6% and Ethiopia 6%, amongst others.Brazil is also a major coffee exporter to the U.S. Consequently, the 50% tariffs that will take effect on August 1 will likely cause Americans headaches. Brazil's coffee is inescapable due to its significance in global coffee production. Coffee prices have been relatively high since the start of the year due

6:23

South Africa lifts the ban on Brazil’s poultry imports

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/07/15

The close observers of this letter will recall that when I first argued for South Africa to place temporary restrictions on the imports of poultry products from Brazil, the idea wasn’t for us to be protectionists. Instead, we wanted to ensure that Brazil controls the avian influenza outbreak before we could resume the imports. This decision was not unique to South Africa, but a standard global practice, and at the time, the EU and China had already placed temporary bans on Brazil’s poultry

11:31

It's time for BRICS countries to deepen agricultural...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/07/11

In the current world of trade fragmentation, one area the BRICS countries should consider focusing on more in their deliberations this year is deepening intra-BRICS trade. For South Africa's agriculture, this has been a central input in various discussions for some time, reflecting our desire to expand export markets to the BRICS countries, as well as the potential that lies in this region.Currently, South African agricultural exports to the BRICS remain relatively low (at less than 10% of our

12:19

SA’s ample grain and oilseed harvest bodes well for...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/07/04

There are some glimpses of positivity that often arise from the agricultural data, which are worth highlighting. Indeed, these do not suggest that all is well with South Africa's agriculture; we continue to struggle with animal disease challenges in cattle farming and the poultry industry.However, if one is in horticulture or field crop production, the operating conditions are more favourable. The message I continue to receive from farmers of various fruits, vegetables, grains, and oilseeds, as

10:53

Zimbabwe will remain a net importer of maize in 2025-26

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/06/27

Maize demand in the Southern African region is expected to remain strong in the 2025-26 marketing year, which commenced in May (this marketing year corresponds with the 2024-25 production season). One of the countries that imported most maize in Southern Africa in the 2024-25 marketing year was Zimbabwe. The country accounted for 56% of South Africa's maize exports of 2.3 million tonnes that year. In the 2025-26 marketing year, Zimbabwe's maize demand is expected to be smaller but remain

11:33

Optimism in South Africa’s agriculture

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/06/20

South African farmers and agribusinesses continue to exhibit resilience and optimism. The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) -- a sentiment indicator of business conditions in the sector -- although declining from the high levels it reached at the start of this year, remains at encouraging levels.After a notable uptick in the first quarter of 2025, the ACI fell by 5 points in the second quarter of the year to 65. Any level of the ACI that is above the 50-neutral point signals

10:32

Will China open up for more agricultural products...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/06/13

We are yet to receive more details on China's intentions to lower import tariffs for various African countries. What is worth emphasising for now is that, from a South African agricultural perspective, this would be a welcome development.China has profound importance in global agriculture. In 2023, China was a leading importer, accounting for 11% of global agricultural imports, with imports valued at US$218 billion. The leading suppliers of farm products to China are Brazil, the U.S., Thailand,

10:55

South Africa's agricultural exports up 10% in the...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/06/06

In a year where trade has dominated the headlines since the U.S. started imposing higher tariffs against its trading partners, agricultural export activity is worth paying close attention to. Encouragingly, the start of the year has remained positive for the sector. In the first quarter of 2025, South Africa's agricultural exports totalled US$ 3.36 billion, up 10% from the same period a year ago. This is a function of both higher volumes of various product exports and better commodity prices

12:05

Southern Africa's grain production rebounds

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/05/30

The Southern Africa region is far better regarding food supplies today than a year ago. For example, Zambia's 2024-25 maize crop has bounced back. The government forecasts the harvest to be 3,66 million tonnes, up from 1,5 million tonnes the previous season. This is because of favourable weather conditions and the decent area plantings.The harvest is underway in the country, and the message we are hearing about the quality of the crop remains encouraging. This also means Zambia could return to

12:41

South African farms are not under siege

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/05/23

One of the themes that dominated the White House Press session this evening was agriculture – the idea that the farming sector in South Africa is under siege and people are running away. But this could be no further than reality.The South African farming sector or farming community is not under siege. And yes, the country has devastating crime incidents, which should remain a major worry for all. However, it is necessary to state that there is no land expropriation without compensation in the

13:18

South Africa cushioned the southern Africa region...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/05/15

At the end of April, we completed South Africa's 2024-25 marketing year for maize. This marketing year corresponds with the 2023-24 production season, which was challenged by the mid-summer drought and led to the 22% decline in South Africa’s maize harvest to 12,85 million tonnes.The big help in that season came from the gains of the previous ones. For example, the season started with 2,40 million tonnes of opening/carryover stocks from the past season, ultimately boosting the available maize

12:13

The excellent wine grapes harvest of 2025 signifies...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/05/12

We have been saying for some time that 2025 will be a recovery year for South Africa’s agriculture, mainly highlighting the gains in grains, soybeans, and horticulture yields. But I was particularly pleased on May 8, when I received a report from South Africa Wine (SA Wine) indicating that we will have an excellent harvest in 2025. SA Wine and Vinpro forecasts South Africa’s wine grapes harvest to be 1.244 million tonnes, an 11% recovery from the exceptionally poor harvest in 2024. Importantly, the

11:11

South Africa expects an ample grain harvest this year

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/05/03

On April 30, we had essential data on South Africa's agriculture. The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released its third production forecast for South Africa's 2024-25 summer crop production season. There are seven more monthly estimates to come. But on the third estimate, we begin to have some comfort about the accuracy of the data. At a time when we have been worrying about the excessive rains, there was predictably a lot more attention on these figures. Notably, the CEC slightly increased South

12:13

The excessive rains present some challenges for South...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/04/26

We are beginning to be concerned about the impact of these excessive rains on agriculture, particularly summer grains and oilseed regions. The crop has matured in most areas, and some planted earlier are now ready to harvest. However, with these excessive rains, it may prove impossible to access the fields.Since we had a late start to the season, roughly a month behind the typical schedule, some areas aren't harvest-ready yet. Still, there is a need for sunshine for crops to mature. The frequent

14:01

Remain focused on domestic matters that are key to...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/04/22

In political economy, there is something called "flooding the zone". Roughly explained, this is when a deluge of information takes people's attention away from what should be a priority. In South Africa's agriculture, we are fortunately not under such an attack through the flood of information. Still, we must continuously be vigilant and reflect thoughtfully on risks affecting the sector. In recent weeks, the focus has primarily been on trade matters and the U.S. tariffs, understandably so,

13:59

Four ways South Africa can use to lift the global...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/04/12

South Africa, the only African country that is a member of the G20, holds thepresidency of the grouping until the end of November 2025. During this time, it could help drive the African continent’s food security agenda. For agriculture, South Africa has set four G20 priorities: * the promotion of policies and investments that can lead to improved food and nutrition security * empowering youth and women to participate in agrifood systems * fostering innovation and the transfer of useful

12:26

SA must work to diversify its agricultural export...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/04/07

South Africa was not spared of the "Liberation Day" tariffs announced by US President Trump against various countries. South Africa will face tariffs between 10% and 31% in the US for all products. The specificity of by-products is not yet clear. We know now that a baseline tariff of 10% will apply to imports from all countries. It remains unclear if there are differences in the remaining 21% (that makes up the rest of the 31%) duties levied against South Africa. Under this environment, it is

12:23

SA summer crop harvest set to recover robustly in...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/03/29

South Africa's agriculture is recovering after a challenging mid-summer drought that led to significant crop losses in the 2023-24 season. The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) 's data released at the end of March 2025 paints an encouraging picture of this new season's summer crop production prospects. For example, the 2024-25 summer grain and oilseeds production is forecast at 18,0 million tonnes, up 5% from the previous month's estimate and 16% of the prior season's crop. This comprises maize,

11:52

There is rising optimism in South Africa’s agriculture

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/03/24

We have a challenging year like this one where there remains discomfort about the Expropriation Act in some sections of South Africa and rising geopolitical tensions; we were pleasantly surprised to see rising optimism in South Africa’s agriculture. The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) – a sentiment indicator in South Africa’s agriculture -- increased 11 points from Q4 2024 to 70 in Q1 2025. This is the third consecutive improvement, placing the ACI at its highest level since Q4 2021,

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