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PODCAST

Excess Returns

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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All Episodes

00:58:48

The Regime Change No One Sees | Adam Parker on Why...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/21

Adam Parker, founder and CEO of Trivariate and Trivector Research, joins Excess Returns to discuss how fundamental, quantitative, and macro perspectives intersect to shape markets today. Parker shares his long-term bullish case for U.S. equities, why traditional valuation signals no longer work, the biggest risks he sees for investors, and how AI, inflation, and market structure are reshaping opportunities and risks in real time.Main topics covered:Why combining fundamental, quantitative, and macro

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01:02:25

The Bear Stearns Moment | Ben Hunt on How Private...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/19

Ben Hunt returns to Excess Returns to break down the hidden risks building inside private credit and the parallels between today’s “alternative asset managers” and the shadow banking system that triggered the 2008 financial crisis. Using the Godfather’s Tessio as a metaphor for betrayal and broken trust, Ben explains how opacity, leverage, and narrative collapse can turn small defaults into systemic crises. He and Matt Zeigler explore what’s really happening beneath the surface of private markets,

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00:55:16

The Case That We Are in the Early Stages of an AI...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/17

In this episode of Excess Returns, Gene Munster and Doug Clinton of Deepwater Asset Management join Justin and Jack to explore the technological, economic, and investing implications of AI. They discuss why they believe we’re still in the early stages of a multi-year bull market driven by AI, how the technology is reshaping jobs and productivity, and what it means for investors. The conversation also covers how companies like Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, and Meta fit into this AI cycle, the energy demands

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01:05:10

Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk Taking |...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/16

Buy Toby's Bookhttps://amzn.to/478SMBfIn this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Tobias Carlisle, founder and portfolio manager at the Acquirers Fund, and author of the new book “Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett’s Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk Taking.” Tobias joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explore how timeless strategic principles from The Art of War apply to investing and how Warren Buffett embodies many of those ideas—from invincibility and victory without

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00:59:02

Timeless Lessons from a Trend Following Legend |...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/15

In this episode of Excess Returns, Jerry Parker joins us for a deep dive into the philosophy and practice of trend following. As one of the original Turtle Traders, Jerry shares lessons from Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt, explores how trend following has evolved over the decades, and offers timeless wisdom on markets, psychology, and risk management. From his early days in the Turtle Trading program to running Chesapeake Capital today, Jerry explains what it takes to survive and thrive as a

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00:59:13

The 100 Year Thinkers | Chris Mayer and Robert...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/13

Subscribe on Spotifyhttps://open.spotify.com/show/5IsVVM27KWP6SUW6KN2ifeSubscribe on Apple Podcastshttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-100-year-thinkers-long-term-compounding-in-a-short-term-world/id1845466003Subscribe on YouTubehttps://youtube.com/@excessreturns

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01:02:25

Investing in a Debasement Regime | Warren Pies

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/11

Warren Pies joins Excess Returns to discuss why he believes we’ve entered a “Debasement Regime,” what that means for investors, and how it differs from the post-GFC deflationary era. He explains the psychology behind this shift, how it’s changing market behavior, and what it means for asset allocation, gold, bonds, small caps, and the Federal Reserve. This conversation covers macro strategy, portfolio construction, and how investors can adapt to a world focused on protecting purchasing power rather

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01:07:47

The Four Pillars of Macro - And What They Say About...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/09

Andy Constan returns to Excess Returns to break down today’s macro environment using his Four-Pillar Framework — growth, inflation, risk premia, and flows. Drawing on lessons from his time at Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, Andy explains how he blends systematic and discretionary approaches to form a clearer picture of markets. He discusses the AI-driven CapEx boom, the economic effects of tariffs, Fed independence under Trump, and why the current setup could produce extreme outcomes in either

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01:02:56

What a Global Regime Change Means for Investors |...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/09

In this episode of Excess Returns, macro strategist Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners joins the show to break down today’s volatile market landscape. Brigden discusses why he believes we’re in one of the most fertile environments for macro investors in decades, the forces driving dollar weakness, inflation, and capital rotation, and how investors can position amid shifting policies, labor constraints, and AI’s uncertain impact. He also explains the risks of U.S. exceptionalism, the fragility of equity

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00:52:06

Big Rally. First Sell Signal Since April | Katie...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/08

Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, joins us for her quarterly technical outlook on markets, sectors, and asset classes. In this episode, Katie breaks down what her indicators are showing for equities, discusses the implications of new DeMark signals on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and explores opportunities across sectors like healthcare, utilities, and energy. She also analyzes key macro charts including gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar, and explains how

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00:55:27

Electricity Is the New Oil | Rob Thummel on the...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/06

In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Rob Thummel of Tortoise Capital to discuss the critical intersection of energy and technology. Rob explains why “electricity is the new oil” as AI and data center demand reshape global power needs. We explore the future energy mix, investment opportunities across natural gas, nuclear, and renewables, and how investors can position for decades of transformation in the energy ecosystem.Topics covered:How AI is driving a new era of electricity

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01:08:35

The Expensive Truth About Cheap Investing | Bogumil...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/05

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with investor and author Bogumil Baranowski to discuss one of investing’s most important mindset shifts: moving beyond cheap stocks to paying up for quality and exceptional opportunities. Drawing on lessons from Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, and his own journey, Bogumil explains how value investing evolves across three key phases—buying cheap, buying good, and learning to pay up. The conversation explores patience, conviction, dead money

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00:58:34

Evidence Based Factor Investing | Matt Zenz

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/04

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Matt Zenz of Longview Research Partners to explore factor investing, evidence-based strategies, and the challenges and opportunities in today’s markets. Matt shares insights from his engineering background, his time at DFA, and his current work running the Longview Advantage ETF (EBI). We cover the nuances of value, momentum, size, implementation, and how investors can think more effectively about long-term returns.Topics covered:Matt’s journey

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01:01:39

A Volatility Masterclass | Timeless Lessons from 30...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/02

In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Noel Smith, co-founder and CIO of Convex Asset Management. Noel shares his unique journey from biochemistry and the military to market making, high-frequency trading, and running a volatility-focused hedge fund. We dig deep into volatility, regime models, income strategies, dispersion, tail hedging, and more, offering a rare look inside the world of professional options and volatility trading.Topics covered:Noel’s background: biochemistry, military,

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00:55:37

A Practical Guide to Market Valuation with Ben Carlson

Excess Returns ·

2025/09/29

In this episode, we sit down with Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management and A Wealth of Common Sense to talk about market valuations, the rise of AI, investor behavior, and what history can teach us about investing today. Ben shares his perspective on why valuations are harder to use than ever, how market structure has shifted, and the lessons he’s learned as both a writer and an investor navigating major market cycles.Topics covered in this episode:Why market valuations are harder to use today

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01:08:41

The New Valuation Regime | Jim Paulsen on Confidence,...

Excess Returns ·

2025/09/27

In this episode, we sit down with Jim Paulsen to analyze the latest economic and market data through his lens of decades of market experience. Jim shares insights from his Paulsen Perspectives research, covering the job market, the Fed, inflation, valuations, investor confidence, and what they all mean for the future of the economy and markets. We explore why confidence is so low despite a bull market, how Fed policy is shaping market dynamics, and where investors might want to focus as the cycle

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00:57:18

Finding the Next Great Tech Compounders | John Tinsman

Excess Returns ·

2025/09/25

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with John Tinsman, portfolio manager of the AOT Growth and Innovation ETF (AOTG). John shares how his investing journey began, the lessons he learned from both successes and failures, and how those experiences shaped his current investment philosophy. We dive deep into the concepts of low marginal cost, profitable growth, digital toll booths, and the transformative impact of AI. John also discusses his approach to valuation, position sizing, and why he

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01:22:05

Finding Decade-Long Compounders with Joseph Shaposhnik

Excess Returns ·

2025/09/22

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Joseph Shaposhnik, founder of Rainwater Equity and former star portfolio manager at TCW. Joseph shares the investment philosophy that drove his track record of outperformance, why he focuses on recurring revenue businesses, and how he evaluates management quality and capital allocation. We also explore lessons from great investors like Warren Buffett, Bill Miller, and Peter Lynch, along with insights on valuation, portfolio concentration, and the

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01:26:29

The Average Return That Never Comes | Sam Ro on 10...

Excess Returns ·

2025/09/20

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Sam Ro to revisit his widely read post “10 Stock Market Truths” and explore how each principle holds up in today’s market. From the long game of investing to short-term risks, valuations, AI, and earnings, Sam shares a timeless framework for navigating markets and separating noise from signal.Topics covered:• Why the long game is undefeated• Short-term volatility and how to prepare for it• The myth of average returns• Asymmetric upside in markets

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00:56:29

Exceptionalism Is Ending. New Winners Are Rising |...

Excess Returns ·

2025/09/17

In this episode, William Blair Global Strategist Olga Bitel joins us to unpack her “Perpetual Growth Machine” framework and what it means for investors navigating AI, tariffs, inflation volatility, market concentration, and a shifting global order. We dig into why growth often emerges from solving problems, how monopolies can stunt future innovation, where AI’s productivity dividends could accrue, and why she sees the next decade’s best opportunities outside the United States. Olga also walks

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416 results

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