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PODCAST

Broken Pie Chart

The Broken Pie Chart Podcast offers fresh looks at investment portfolio management, economics, markets, retirement planning, and more by simplifying and explaining important aspects of financial markets and the economy in easy to understand ways.

business investing

All Episodes

24:28

Fallacy of Dollar Losing 90% of Value | Buy at...

Broken Pie Chart ·

2025/07/07

Derek Moore looks at some data showing that buying markets at all-time highs isn’t so bad. Plus, after years of listening to how the dollar has lost 90% of its value or more, let’s set the record straight about whether this is a fallacy or truth. You might be surprised by the data. Then, examine the volatility and drawdowns of gold prices. Yeah, they drawdown more than you’d have thought. Oh, and going long the F1 Movie! Comparing drawdowns in Gold, S&P 500 index, and 5-Year Treasuries over the

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55:36

Hated All-Time Highs | Semis Gone Wild | Does Apple...

Broken Pie Chart ·

2025/06/29

Derek Moore is joined again by Spencer Wright from Halbert Wealth to talk about the market breaking out to another all-time high and how hated a rally this is. Then they discuss semiconductors finally catching up to their only July 2024 highs. Then they talk about Chamath Palihapitiya’s criticism of Apple and a Bloomberg report that Apple had talks about buying AI company Perplexity. Finally, some odds and ends like whether oil prices on an inflation adjusted basis are lower than in the 1970s and

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37:22

60/40 Portfolio vs Hedged Equity | CNBC Markets in...

Broken Pie Chart ·

2025/06/23

Derek Moore looks to answer the question on whether Hedged Equity or the 60/40 stock bond portfolio is a better fit given where we are and why. How bonds had a 40-year bull market but is it likely that is possible again given where we are? Later, looking at market returns after CNBC does their ‘markets in turmoil’ specials when markets are selling off. Plus, why debate about should or shouldn’t the Fed lower rates is getting tired and does it even matter outside of housing? Debate around Fed

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41:42

Geopolitical Risk | Most Volatile Decade? |Housing Is...

Broken Pie Chart ·

2025/06/16

Derek Moore examines markets around historical geopolitical events. Plus, the 2020s are trending to be the most volatile decade and by the way we are up over 80% so far. Then, looking at the pop in gold and crude oil this week and perspective on where those markets are. Plus, a contrarian take that housing is actually cheap. Later talking semiconductor stocks, the US dollar index, inflation, and useless sentiment surveys. 1-year forward inflation expectations U-Michigan survey Sentiment gets

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24:47

6000 Baby! | Market Breadth Narrows| Rolling 10 Year...

Broken Pie Chart ·

2025/06/09

Derek Moore looks at how companies in the S&P 500 are not correlated while the equal weighted S&P 500 is correlated closely with the weighted S&P 500 Index. Later, looking at historical rolling 10-year returns in the market and why it’s rare to have periods that are negative over longer time frames. Plus, touching on single stock risk a la Elon Musk, Tesla, and Trump public news hurts Tesla shares. Oh, and we are only 2.4% below the old all-time high. S&P 500 Index now only 2.4% from a new

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28:46

Wrong on Inflation | NVDA Earnings | PCE Inflation vs...

Broken Pie Chart ·

2025/06/02

Derek Moore explains how what sometimes seems obvious isn’t what happens as we can see with inflation numbers that continue to move lower despite consumer sentiment surveys expecting 6.6% inflation in the next year. Plus, NVDA had its earnings and the stock’ forward PE is lower due to the next 12-month analyst estimates being near all-time highs. Plus, sell in May would have been a mistake as markets recovered and are now back to within several percent of all-time highs. PCE Inflation vs CPI

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38:15

Bond Yield Problem? | NVidia Options Implied...

Broken Pie Chart ·

2025/05/25

Derek Moore talks about seeing stories of exploding 30-year yields but what if they are low compared to historical relationships between the fed funds rate? Then, looking at how correlated the 60/40 portfolio has been over the last 5 years begging the question, did it do anything for investors? Later, looking at NVidia implied volatility ahead of its big earnings release this week to see what the options market is pricing in for a potential one standard deviation move? All this and more this week.

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40:43

Moodys Downgrades US Debt | Intra Year Drawdowns Are...

Broken Pie Chart ·

2025/05/19

Derek Moore reflects on market reaction to the 2011 US debt downgrade and explains what S&P, Fitch, and Moody’s have for ratings. Plus, are markets poised for more positive returns based on several indicators? The bear case against the markets would be a reduction in profit margins. Later, Derek reviews some data of future 12-month returns when consumer confidence is low as a contrarian indicator. Finally, looking at several current indicators and random musing in markets for clues about the future

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30:34

MicroStrategy (MSTR) Joining S&P 500 Index? | S&P 500...

Broken Pie Chart ·

2025/05/12

Derek Moore discusses whether MSTR MicroStrategy will wind up in the S&P 500 Index and do we want that given it just holds bitcoin with some ratio between its intrinsic value and the MSTR market cap. Plus, where to look for upcoming prospects for the S&P 500 Index and why the index is actively not passively managed and changes can drive earnings growth. Later, Derek talks through what the Fed did (nothing) and whether they are wrong or not to keep rates steady. MSTR MicroStrategy potential to

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34:55

Barons Contrarian Cover | Negative GDP Details | Fed...

Broken Pie Chart ·

2025/05/04

Derek Moore talks through what caused the negative GDP number and compares it to 2022 Q1’s more negative print. Hint, it’s those darn imports and exports. Should you sell in May and go away? Plus, whether the Fed may do anything at the May meeting. Unemployment was ok while inflation hasn’t gone back up so why won’t they cut? What happens 1-year later after an almost bear market (less than -20% drawdown)? All that plus some volatility talk. Components of GDP Net exports calculation When markets

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33:23

Is The Bottom In? | Now They Change Their S&P 500...

Broken Pie Chart ·

2025/04/27

Derek Moore goes through how markets have bottomed (maybe?) and are now up 10% since then. All the while investment banks have now started moving their 2025 year end targets down. The bear case on corporate net profit margins (and bull case). Plus, how max bearishness against US equities at market lows may have been a contrarian signal. With more earnings this week, Apple’s implied volatility is forecasting what as an expected 1 standard deviation move. Keeping perspective on the markets as the

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28:47

Economic Forecast Crowding | Gold ATH | High Yield...

Broken Pie Chart ·

2025/04/21

Derek Moore talks about airport business as a sign or lack thereof of recessions. Gold makes another all-time high while the safety trade like treasuries and the US dollar aren’t working lately. Plus, looking at typical widening of high yield spreads during recessions compared to today. Later, the VIX Index is still not appropriately pricing in historical volatility given the moves again this week in equity markets. Also, surveys of economists are up to 45% probability of recession in the next 12

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32:35

Market Bottom? | VIX Should Be 100 | Bond Market...

Broken Pie Chart ·

2025/04/13

Derek Moore reviews the surge in bond yields, and why the VIX Index should have been 100-125 this week as there is a mismatch between expected volatility and realized volatility. Earnings season begins but will analysts start downgrading their S&P 500 Index forecast? Why does the market often bottom out ahead of whatever reason its scared happens. Plus, believe it or not over the past 10 days Bitcoin’s historical volatility is the same as SPY. All this and more this week. Bitcoin volatility vs SPY

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59:53

Sell Sell Sell | Tariffs | Nasdaq in Bear Market...

Broken Pie Chart ·

2025/04/05

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Puck to compare this selloff to others like 2020, 1998, 2015, 2000 and more. Then they talk about how the Trump administration is arriving at their tariff percentages. Later, they discus how the market didn’t price in the eventual announcement. How things like the VIX Index and the High Yield Bond spread Thursday weren’t high enough. Did the market miscalculate the tariff announcement? What is the sentiment among advisors and investors from what we are hearing and

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41:58

Back in Correction? | Recession? | Atlanta FED GDP...

Broken Pie Chart ·

2025/03/31

Derek Moore reviews two paths for market post -10% correction with and without a recession. Plus, talking through the difference between expectations miss vs the actual data through the lens of YoY PCE Core Inflation. Later, confidence in the stock market plummeted. Oh, and like clockwork, the first investment bank lowered its year end S&P 500 Index price target and 12-month forward earnings outlook. Are more coming? And what is going on with the Atlanta Fed GDP now model? Tune in for this and more

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38:18

Intra Year Drawdowns | LEI Leading Economic Indicator...

Broken Pie Chart ·

2025/03/24

Derek Moore is back to discuss markets, volatility, and the economy through the prism of intra year drawdowns, Spot VIX vs Vix Futures prices, and LEI or Leading Economic Indicator. Why are the Fed’s Dot Plots useless (still). Thoughts on the idea that Buffered strategies don’t beat the market. How different markets have performed since the first Fed rate cut in September and much more. Since September Rate Cut Mag 7 vs SPX vs Equal Weight Intra Year Drawdowns vs full year return Comments on AQR

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35:58

Max Bearishness at a Bottom? | VIX Curve Inversion |...

Broken Pie Chart ·

2025/03/16

Derek Moore is back to break down the wild week including Nvidia rallying when against the bearish tide. How the US Dollar index pulling back might be bullish for earnings. Plus, have we reached max panic and max bearishness setting up for a near term bottom in markets? Later, looking at the Fear and Greed Index, the VIX Inversion and what that means for markets, and why people are now bullish or bearish based on politics. All that and more! Fear and Greed Index Drawdowns vs full year market

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01:05:26

Market Correction Turmoil | Don’t Panic | VIX Spikes...

Broken Pie Chart ·

2025/03/10

Derek Moore is back together with Jay Pestrichelli this week to react to the market turmoil. What is going on and is this just a revaluation or something worse? Plus, now the Fed Funds’ futures indicate 3 rate cuts. Looking at the Mag 7 selloff compared to the rest of the market. Unemployment was fine so what’s the big deal? Later, looking at whether the options market via the implied volatility readings is pricing in more, less, or just right actual historical volatility. They even take a listener

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35:11

Investors Get Bearish |Nvidia Earnings | Implied...

Broken Pie Chart ·

2025/03/03

Derek Moore goes through last week’s pullback and Nvidia’s post earnings move. Then, looking at the AAII survey where investors got really bearish. Later, he looks at how the Mag 7 hasn’t made a new high since December but other things have. The yields are dropping at the same time forward PE ratios are lower after a slight increase in forward earnings expectations and the market dropping down. Nvidia kills earnings but sells off proving investing is hard Treasury yields ease Mag 7 vs the total

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47:48

Higher Jan & Feb Means Bull Continues? | Broadening...

Broken Pie Chart ·

2025/02/24

Derek Moore and Mike Puck talk about the resurgence of international stocks against the US. Plus, how the rest of the market has a similar performance to the Mag 7, indicating a broadening out of stocks in the S&P 500 Index. Later, they discuss what markets historically have done after being up in January and February. Profit margins are rising outside the Mag 7 names and looking at the expected Nvidia move around earnings based upon the implied volatility levels. S&P 500 Index 493 vs the Mag 7

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352 results

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