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PODCAST

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through a real estate lens.

A shifting economic order. Rising geopolitical risk. Capital on edge. In The Real Estate Market Watch, Dr. Adam Gower, author, academic, and commercial real estate veteran with over 40 years of experience, examines the macroeconomic signals reshaping the real estate investment landscape. This isn"t a show about deal hype or trend-chasing. It"s about what happens when confidence meets correction - and how investors and sponsors can respond with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside

business investing

All Episodes

44:19

Hope Certificates and Hidden Distress

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through... ·

2025/08/05

Calm on the Surface, Distress Below: Joe Blackbourn on the State of Sunbelt Multifamily The Eye of the Storm? When my podcast guest this week, Joe Blackbourn, president and founder of Everest Holdings, stepped in front of a room of ULI members in late 2024, he titled his multifamily market forecast “An Underdressed Weatherman Gets Sent Into a Hurricane.” The image was evocative – and accurate. Multifamily investors, developers, and lenders had been navigating gale-force winds of rising

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46:19

The New Real Estate Cycle Begins

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through... ·

2025/07/22

A Mild Ending, A Fresh Start: Richard Barkham’s Post-CBRE View of the CRE Market The End of a Cycle - Without the Crash After 40 years in the field and a distinguished final act as Global Chief Economist at CBRE, Richard Barkham’s take on the state of commercial real estate is disarmingly calm. “This has been the mildest end of cycle that we've seen in 40 years – in fact, in my whole career,” he says. Unlike previous downturns - 1989, 2000, 2008 - which were accompanied by macroeconomic

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51:35

CRE’s Next Threat: Uninsurable Assets

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through... ·

2025/07/15

The Uninsurable Future: How Climate-Driven Insurance Risk is Reshaping Real Estate The Canary in the CRE Coal Mine If insurance is the canary in the coal mine for climate risk, then the bird has stopped singing. That’s the warning from Dave Jones, former California Insurance Commissioner and current Director of the Climate Risk Initiative at UC Berkeley. In a conversation that touches on reinsurance markets, mortgage delinquencies, lender behavior, and regulatory dysfunction, Jones laid out

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57:11

Supply, Stalemate, and Strategy

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through... ·

2025/07/02

Supply, Stalemate, and Strategy: A Data-Centric View on U.S. Housing with Chris Nebenzahl Locked-In America: The Housing Market’s Great Stall The U.S. housing market isn’t just tight, it’s inert. As Chris Nebenzahl, Housing Economist at John Burns Research and Consulting, puts it, America is experiencing a “lock-in effect” where millions of homeowners, beneficiaries of sub-3% mortgages from a prior era, have no incentive to move. Transactions, both in the for-sale and rental segments, are

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01:19:59

Navigating Risk, Noise, and Uncertainty

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through... ·

2025/06/25

Navigating Risk, Noise, and Uncertainty: Barry Ritholtz on Investing in a Volatile World In my conversation with Barry Ritholtz, chairman of Ritholtz Wealth Management and host of Bloomberg’s “Masters in Business” podcast, we explored market and real estate cycles, caution, and capital allocation in today’s increasingly unpredictable economic environment. Below are the most actionable and provocative takeaways for real estate investors, both passive and professional, drawn from Barry’s decades

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45:28

Bracing for the Real Estate Bang

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through... ·

2025/06/10

The Looming Crisis Few Want to Confront Paul Daneshrad, CEO of StarPoint Properties and author of Money and Morons, is sounding the alarm: the United States is barreling toward a sovereign debt reckoning – and real estate professionals are not nearly prepared. Citing economists Reinhart and Rogoff, along with voices as diverse as Jamie Dimon, Jerome Powell, and Ray Dalio, Daneshrad warns that the U.S. has not only crossed the 100% debt-to-GDP threshold, widely viewed as a critical danger zone,

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58:42

The Crash You Won’t See Coming — Because It’s Already...

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through... ·

2025/06/05

The Real Estate Cycle: A Warning for 2026 Insights from Phil Anderson on the Coming Real Estate Market Crash In my conversation with renowned economist Phil Anderson, you will gain unprecedented insight into the mechanics of real estate cycles and why we are right on the precipice of the next major real estate market crash. Anderson, author of "The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking," presents a compelling case that combines economic theory with historical precedent to paint a picture

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59:07

Real Estate's Margin for Error is Gone

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through... ·

2025/06/04

The Margin of Error Has Vanished: What CRE Investors Should Be Watching Now Commentary on a conversation with John Chang, Senior Vice President and National Director, Research and Advisory Services, Marcus & Millichap The New CRE Investment Mandate: Survive First, Then Thrive “The margin of error has narrowed to virtually zero.” This was John Chang’s stark assessment of today’s commercial real estate environment – an era marked by fragile capital markets, rising Treasury yields, policy

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39:02

Real Estate's #1 Rule: Don't Lose Money!

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through... ·

2025/06/02

Leyla Kunimoto brings a rare and unfiltered perspective to today’s commercial real estate conversation: that of a full-time individual LP who writes publicly about her investment decisions. She’s not a sponsor, a capital raiser, or a fund manager; she’s an investor allocating her own capital and speaking candidly about what she sees in the market. Through her newsletter Accredited Investor Insights, Leyla connects with hundreds of other LPs and GPs, giving her a uniquely well-informed view of

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01:14:53

How to Survive the Coming Real Estate Storm

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through... ·

2025/05/30

How to Survive the Coming Real Estate Storm – What Sean Kelly-Rand Learned at Lehman For the experienced real estate investor or sponsor, this is a masterclass in what really matters. When Lehman Brothers unraveled in 2008, it exposed a truth that many in the real estate world still prefer to ignore: even the most sophisticated capital structures can implode when the cost of capital and access to liquidity are misunderstood – or worse, taken for granted. My podcast/YouTube show guest today,

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44:19

Navigating Multifamily CRE in a Volatile Environment

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through... ·

2025/05/27

Navigating Multifamily CRE in a Volatile Environment Insights from Paul Fiorilla, Director of U.S. Research at Yardi Matrix Paul Fiorilla offers a data-driven view of today’s commercial real estate (CRE) landscape using the vast resources he has at his disposal at Yardi. While market sentiment may be growing more optimistic, Fiorilla acknowledges investors should separate short-term mood from long-term fundamentals. His perspective, rooted in close analysis of multifamily data and macro

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01:10:23

The Real Risk to Real Estate Today

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through... ·

2025/05/21

The Dollar Standard, Global Liquidity, and the Coming Economic Reckoning In my expansive and highly accessible conversation with renowned economist Richard Duncan, we discuss the logic behind his long-running critique of the international monetary system, a system Richard calls the Dollar Standard where he explains why current U.S. policy moves, the system could come crashing down. The Origins of the Dollar Standard and America’s “Exorbitant Privilege” The Dollar Standard, Duncan explains,

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58:36

Where Are We in the Real Estate Cycle?

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through... ·

2025/05/19

When it comes to understanding real estate cycles, few voices carry as much weight as Prof. Glenn Mueller, of Denver University. With over 40 years in the real estate industry and more than three decades of publishing the Market Cycle Monitor – used by institutional investors, developers, and academics alike – his data-driven framework is one of the most respected in commercial real estate. In my conversation with Prof. Mueller, he shared where each property type stands today, what signals

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52:13

The Illusion of Diversification

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through... ·

2025/05/16

Unlocking Private Market Potential: Key Insights from Jim Dowd of North Capital Jim Dowd, CEO of North Capital, brings four decades of experience across the sell-side and buy-side to my discussion with him on a topic top of mind for commercial real estate sponsors and investors: how to navigate a rapidly shifting capital landscape where regulation, liquidity, investor behavior, and macro volatility collide. Here are the key insights from our conversation – designed specifically to you make

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50:27

What the Debt Markets are Telling Us Now

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through... ·

2025/05/13

The Pulse of the Debt Markets — with Orest Mandzy, CRE Direct Capital market confidence is cautiously returning, but undercurrents of risk remain. In my wide-ranging conversation with Orest Mandzy, Managing Editor of Commercial Real Estate Direct, we discuss what recent CMBS issuance tells us about liquidity, why delinquency headlines may be misleading, and how sponsors can position themselves amid policy shocks and structural market shifts. Liquidity Is Back — But Driven by Giants CMBS

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01:01:47

Rates, Risk, and the Return of Discipline

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through... ·

2025/05/07

What the Debt Markets Are Telling Us — and Why Sponsors Should Listen Insights from Lisa Pendergast, Executive Director, CREFC In today’s capital markets, where debt is more expensive, less available, and slower to move, understanding how credit flows work has become just as important as understanding your deal. That’s why I sat down with Lisa Pendergast, Executive Director of the Commercial Real Estate Finance Council (CREFC) – a central figure in the $5 trillion CRE debt markets – to ask

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43:52

The Fed, the Fallout, and CRE

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through... ·

2025/04/23

Debt-Driven Reality: Understanding CRE’s Structural Fragility Cracks Beneath the Surface In this episode of The Real Estate Market Watch, I sit down with Jon Winick, CEO of Clark Street Capital, to explore the increasingly fragile foundation of the commercial real estate (CRE) market. Winick draws on decades of experience in loan portfolio sales, banking, CMBS investing, and student housing to deliver a sobering, detail-rich assessment of what’s coming next — and what’s already hiding in plain

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30:08

The Truth About Capital Raising

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through... ·

2025/04/22

When you listen in to this week's podcast/YouTube show guest, Elijah Iung, you’ll love hearing about his journey from farmhand to capital raiser. Before he was investing in multifamily deals, he was knee-deep in… well, let’s just say a much messier kind of asset management. But that dirty work paid off. Elijah built a multi-seven-figure business in cattle waste management, which set the stage for his transition into farmland investing and, eventually, multifamily syndication. His journey from

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50:22

Think You’re Diversified? Think Again!

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through... ·

2025/04/21

Please welcome my guest today, dentist Josh Cochran, who didn’t just build the largest general dental group in the Inland Northwest, he built a real estate empire while he was at it. After selling a stake in his thriving dental practice, he set his sights on commercial real estate, starting with medical retail development before getting involved in ground-up multifamily projects worth over $125 million. The Accidental Developer Josh has an interesting background in that he didn’t just lease

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52:21

Why Most Capital Raisers Fail (And How to Succeed)

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through... ·

2025/04/20

Meet capital allocator, Flint Jamison, Vestus Capital, who took an unconventional route into real estate transitioning from aerospace engineering to structuring multimillion-dollar investment funds. After spending years modifying aircraft, he turned his analytical mind toward real estate, quickly carving out a niche as a capital allocator and fund-of-funds manager. Through Vestus Capital, Flint has raised millions in investor capital, deploying it across diversified real estate assets,

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113 results

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