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PODCAST

The Macro Trading Floor

Alfonso Peccatiello & Brent Donnelly

The Macro Trading Floor is a fun and actionable macro and markets podcast hosted by Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly. If you are looking for banter, financial education, and actionable trade ideas this is the podcast for you!

business investing

All Episodes

33:39

How To Trade Tariff Day

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2025/01/17

In this episode, Alf and Brent reflect on the upcoming ''Tariff Day'' and how to trade it. The duo shares their scenario-based approach covering multiple asset classes including bonds, FX and equities.Alf can be reached via X (@MacroAlf) and on Bloomberg (Alfonso Peccatiello) Brent can be reached via X (@@donnelly_brent) and on Bloomberg (Brent Donnelly) Show notes: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-6-options-or-cash Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-17jan25/

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35:57

The UK Bond Market Is Imploding

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2025/01/10

Alf and Brent discuss the big moves in UK bond markets and the drop in the UK Sterling: bond vigilantes are in action, but what next? They also focus on the upcoming tariff announcement and the impact on US bond markets, the US Dollar and equity markets.Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-10jan25/

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38:53

The Most Hawkish Fed In Years - What Now?

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/12/20

Powell delivered a super hawkish message: inflation remains sticky, and the Fed won’t cut rates as much as the market expected in 2025. The “Fed Put” is not there anymore - should investors go and buy their own puts?Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20dec24/

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36:50

The US Dilemma in 2025

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/12/13

Alf and Brent discuss the US dilemma in 2025: should Trump be aggressive out of the gate with tariffs sacrificing growth for foreign policy victories, or should he focus on other priorities allowing Powell to cut rates and facilitate the refinancing of $7 trillion of maturing Treasuries? The duo also discussed the perils and benefits of leverage in trading and investing.Do you want to ask questions to Brent and Alf? Reach out to Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg. Transcript:

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33:34

Trading Trump 2.0

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/12/06

Alf and Brent resume the show by assessing how to approach Trump 2.0 from a macro trading perspective in 2025. They also discuss the ''Death of Europe'': is it happening, or is it an overcrowded narrative?Trial for Alf's Institutional Research: https://forms.gle/25heFudTB4ouuJ1H6 Brent's Daily Newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-06dec24/

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34:05

Trump's Secret Agenda

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/11/08

In this week's episode, Brent and Alf discuss the implications of a Republican sweep. Markets reacted in a textbook way, but today they are busy unwinding most ''Trump trades''. Should we take Trump's agenda at face value and assume it's negative for bonds and positive for the USD? Or should we instead dig deeper and figure out what Trump really wants?FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86 Check out Brent's research: https://www.spectramarkets.com/ Transcript:

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36:15

The Bond Market Is On Fire

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/10/25

Heading into US elections, US bond markets are on fire: yields are selling off, the term premium is back in positive territory, and investors are worried the sell-off can extend further.Alf and Brent discuss a framework to assess bond yields, the role of tariffs, how to look at the US Dollar and they also zoom in on Canada where the Central Bank has been forced to aggressively cut interest rates. FREE trial to Alf's research: https://forms.gle/jF2nnD2VoNuQjem86 Check out Brent's

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38:06

Financial Repression Is Here To Stay

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/10/18

Alf and Brent discuss the recent sharp moves in US election polls and betting markets: Trump's odds are moving up, and so are the odds of a Red Sweep. Is the market fully incorporating these odds? Also, the duo discusses the possibility of persistent financial repression regardless of who prevails in US elections. Finally, they engage in a discussion about the importance of correlations for macro portfolios.Want to be in touch with Alf? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg or enroll in the

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39:27

What If The Fed Made a Mistake?

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/10/11

Alf and Brent discuss the most recent US macro data releases: the hurricane impacted jobless claims, and core inflation has surprised to the upside. Trump now seems to decidedly lead the polls, and his policies could be inflationary. Did the Fed make a mistake by cutting 50 bps? The duo also discusses the Saturday Chinese fiscal press conference, and how to handle seasonality in your trading framework.Alf's Macro Research Trial (Free): https://forms.gle/6azecq2XhMW2ZFXa8 Brent's

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34:33

Macro Risks On The Horizon

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/10/04

EXCLUSIVE DISCOUNT TO ALF & BRENT CONFERENCEhttps://www.spectramarkets.com/macro-roadmap-2025/ Use the coupon TMTF to get $200 OFF. Only for the first 100 users - first come, first serve! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Alf and Brent discuss the many risks on the horizon: the Middle-East escalation, China following up (or not) with real economic stimulus, elections and more. Today’s episode:

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36:35

Unpacking The Chinese Stimulus Bazooka

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/09/27

The Chinese stimulus bazooka has been fired.Chinese authorities have announced aggressive interest rate cuts, a 1 trillion yuan capital injection for Chinese banks, and they are also mentioning the magic words: fiscal stimulus. As a result, stocks are soaring and commodities are rallying. But - is it really going to work? And can China really afford such a stimulus? Alf and Brent unpack this in today's show. Alf's Macro Hedge Fund (Palinuro Capital) is live: https://palinurocapital.com/ Elm's

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35:50

How To Trade The Fed Cutting Cycle

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/09/20

Alf and Brent discuss the jumbo 50 bps Fed cut and the nuances Powell shared during the press conference. They look at historical parallels to derive how to best approach different asset classes with a specific focus on the USD. They also cover the Chinese economy which seems to be slowly imploding from within.We are now also on Youtube, where you can see supporting charts and our bald heads. https://youtu.be/o1iDoADS0c4 Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20sep2024/

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41:14

The World is Different Now

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/09/13

Alf and Brent discuss similarities and differences between the world and the macro cycle today versus the pre-pandemic period. While the cycle might look similar, should we not pay attention to the structural differences too? The duo moves on to discuss the aggressive bond market pricing and how to trade around that. Finally, they focus on the US Dollar: will it perform nicely or poorly if we get a recession?Free trial to Alf's institutional macro

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36:45

Will The Fed Cut by 25 or 50 bps?

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/09/06

Alf and Brent discuss recent developments in macro and labor market data, and debate whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 bps in September. Is the bond market overestimating the amount of upcoming cuts, or economic weakness will require the Fed to cut rates even more aggressively? They then move to investigate how long-term investing bias can negatively affect short-term oriented trading decisions, and how to measure consensus.Free trial to Alf's Institutional

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40:10

How & When The Best Macro Investors Use Options

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/08/23

In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how cross-asset pricing in bonds, FX and equity markets has rapidly changed in August and compare it with the hard economic reality: are there opportunities to be exploited? They then make a deep dive on the US Dollar, and finally cover a crucial trading framework topic: when and how to use options instead of linear structures to put up macro trades?FREE TRIAL to Alf's Institutional Macro Research: https://www.tinyurl.com/FreeTrialResearch Sign up to Brent's

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36:22

A Tale of Crowded Macro Trades

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/08/10

Alf and Brent reflect on the immense volatility hitting markets recently, and specifically on the unwind of carry trades: are we done here or is there more to come? Most importantly, they describe how to design and apply a risk management and position sizing framework so that when everybody panics you don't need to.Want to reach out to Alf? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg Brent Donnelly can also be reached on Bloomberg, or via spectramarkets.com Transcript link here:

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39:38

Macro Mayhem!

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/08/02

Alf and Brent reflect on the massive bond market rally and the explosive move in the Japanese Yen - what’s next for macro?To contact Alf: send him an email at info@palinurocapital.com or contact him on Bloomberg (Alfonso Peccatiello) To contact Brent: ping him on Bloomberg (Brent Donnelly) or go on http://www.spectramarkets.com/ Brent’s piece on positioning: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-11-sentiment-and-positioning Transcript:

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37:13

Explaining This Brutal Stocks Sell-Off

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/07/26

Want to have a chat with Alf about his upcoming macro hedge fund?Click on the link below: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdxVgZcQ4XF2fRVPymGwc6ISxo0XwzdeVliBA_Os9sY6JIv6Q/viewform This week, Alf and Brent discuss the brutal equity market sell-off: is it due to macro tectonic shifts, a reassessment of political risks or an unwind of crowded trades? The duo digs deep trying to connect the dots, and they also discuss a trading framework around this large volatility events.

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39:15

Where To Find Cheap Macro Optionality

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/07/19

Alf and Brent look into various ''Trump trades'' now that the odds of a Trump election and Republican sweep have increased: is there still juice left? And where? Specifically, they also reflect on the use of options as macro traders.Want to see Alf's Cheap Optionality Monitor? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg And take advantage of Brent's course offer! Think Like a Market Professional: www.spectramarkets.com/school - use code JULY24 for $500 off Stuff mentioned during the

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39:25

It's Macro ShowTime!

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/07/12

Alf and Brent discuss the interesting market reaction to the weak US CPI report, and they dig deep into the '''Trump trade'': how would you trade a Trump victory and why? They also talk about the US Dollar and bond markets.Want to chat with Alf on Bloomberg? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) You can find Brent's work on Spectra Markets or ping him on BBG (Brent Donnelly) Transcript of the episode: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-12-july-2024/ Elm Toin Coss

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121 results

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