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PODCAST

The Rate Guy

The Rate Guy Podcast is hosted by JP Conklin of Pensford. It"s an irreverent insight into interest rates and current markets and how they impact the Commercial Real Estate and Multifamily industries.

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All Episodes

19:19

JMo Unmasked

The Rate Guy ·

2024/09/30

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the latest economic data, including inflation, jobs reports, GDP. GPI, and why the Fed might be boxed in on rate cuts. Tune in for all the insights and our take on what’s next. Plus, JMo finally conceded defeat on our inflation bet, and we unveil his identity!

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21:44

The Fed Should Cut 50bps This Week, but They Won't

The Rate Guy ·

2024/09/15

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we’re keeping it short and sweet. We’re prepping for Wednesday’s rate cut decision and breaking down 7 reasons why the Fed won’t go for a 50bps cut, despite market hopes. We’ll also touch on what you might want to do with caps ahead of the meeting. Here is the link to register for the Q3 Interest Rate Webinar that you won't want to miss! Topics of Discussion Register to attend Pensford's quarterly markets and interest rate update on September 19th, 2024 at 1:00pm

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20:34

The Fed Should Cut to 3.25%

The Rate Guy ·

2024/09/09

In this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss why cutting rates to 3.25% might be the right move for the Fed. Fed Chair Powell recently stated at Jackson Hole, “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” which has huge implications for future rate cuts. With job gains averaging just 116k per month, we break down why the benchmark for job growth is 100k—not zero—and how that ties into the Fed’s decision-making. We also dive into research, like Indeed's Nick Bunker’s analysis

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20:06

I'm Getting to Jackson Hole One Way or Another!

The Rate Guy ·

2024/08/19

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss this week's Jackson Hole meeting where the theme is “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.” We talk about some of the things they might touch on and how the market may react. We also discuss the consumer spending situation; why it's not as rosy as the number suggests and why these red flags have not yet caused a more significant slowdown in consumer spending. Here is the link to the quarterly report that the NY Fed puts out

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31:10

The Interest Rate Olympics

The Rate Guy ·

2024/08/12

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we get a little creative and compare Olympic athletes to players in the Interest Rate game. On the heels of a couple data heavy weeks, we hope this is a breathe of fresh air for you all. And you may be asking, there's a connection between the Australian "break dancer" and interest rates!? Yep, there sure is!

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32:53

On A Long Enough Timeline, JP Is Always Right

The Rate Guy ·

2024/08/05

In this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast, we dive into the concept of the "JP Rule"—the idea that, given enough time, JP is always right—and compare it to the established Sahm and Taylor economic rules. We also cover one of the most significant economic weeks in recent memory, possibly since the Fed began hiking rates. There’s a lot to discuss this week, including the potential number of rate cuts this year and the factors that could influence them. We'll explore the chaos that erupted after the

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22:50

Fed Meeting Primer and JMo Update

The Rate Guy ·

2024/07/28

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what to expect at this week's upcoming Fed meeting, jobs report and what impact those may have on rates and cap pricing. JP also gives an update on the JMo wager!

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15:34

Cap Pricing As The Fed Cuts

The Rate Guy ·

2024/07/14

On this episode of The Rate Guy we dive into last week's CPI report, how it may impact rate trajectory, how cap prices may behave in a falling rate environment and what strategies you should be considering for your upcoming caps.

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20:01

Jobs Market Hotter Than Orlando Pavement in July

The Rate Guy ·

2024/07/07

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the "HOT" jobs data, the upcoming inflation data, Powell's testimony and the liklihood of Fed cuts this year. As always you can read the Pensford Newsletter here.

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27:42

The Data Can Stay Irrational Longer Than You Can Stay...

The Rate Guy ·

2024/06/10

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we dig a little deeper into the recent Jobs Report and discuss the underlying data that should be getting attention, CPI, the ECB cutting and how all of that may affect this week's Fed meeting.

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21:40

The Fed's Seesaw Dilemma

The Rate Guy ·

2024/06/03

On this episode of The Rate Guy we’re breaking down the Core PCE numbers and JMo's wager tracker—are we heading to the Caribbean or not? Plus, we explore why the Fed might be shifting its focus from inflation to jobs, the implications of recent job reports, and what Friday's labor data could mean for future rate cuts. Join us as we take a closer look at the economic balancing act the Fed is faced with and how that could shape the rest of the year. In case you want to check out the interesting piece

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28:59

Disinflation Back on Track?

The Rate Guy ·

2024/05/27

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss all things inflation, the cracks that Jay$ (Jerome Powell) may be paying closing attention to and the probability of rate cuts and why JP thinks that could be wrong. If you haven't already, subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter to see visuals that we reference in the podcast, as well as any breaking news we tackle mid-week.

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01:11:14

15 Years Flies When You're Having Fun

The Rate Guy ·

2024/04/29

Happy 15 years to Pensford! On this episode of The Rate Guy we take a walk down memory lane with JP. Hearing about the times he thought Pensford was going under, where the name comes from, our competitors and most importantly our team. If you want to skip the story and get straight to the FOMC meeting, inflation and jobs talk, fast forward to the 32 minute mark. Thanks to everyone for your support. Here's to the next 15!

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33:21

Premature Pivot 2.0

The Rate Guy ·

2024/04/22

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss why we should not be freaking out over inflation, why JP still things the Fed is cutting, how transportation costs have affected Supercore and which direction wage growth is trending. Check out the Pensford Newsletter for graphs/links referenced. And for those interested in checking out JP's Eagles Spite Site. Here you go! https://howiecantdraft.com/

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36:21

Labor Market Strength or Just Different?

The Rate Guy ·

2024/04/08

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we tackle the unexpected fallout from last week's April Fools' joke podcast/newsletter that sent rates soaring. IT WAS A JOKE, PEOPLE! We'll dissect recent labor market reports, if Bloomberg Chief U.S. Economist Anna Wong could be right about the high end of unemployment, the impact of fiscal stimulus, and what the Beveridge Curve tells us about job openings versus unemployment. We explore Fed Chair Powell's latest comments, the role of immigration and part-time

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29:46

Lies, Damned Lies and Jobs

The Rate Guy ·

2024/03/11

For this nerdy episode of The Rate Guy podcast you can thank Nathan from Dallas for inspiring JP to fall down a jobs rabbit hole! We'll talk BLS, BEA, birth/death adjustment and dissect the overstated strength of the current job market challenging the "red hot" labor market narrative. We will also touch on what you may be overlooking when it comes to inflation. (hint, it's something we haven't seen since the financial crisis) To read the newsletter in all it's graph laden glory click here

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36 results

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