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PODCAST

The Rate Guy

The Rate Guy Podcast is hosted by JP Conklin of Pensford. It"s an irreverent insight into interest rates and current markets and how they impact the Commercial Real Estate and Multifamily industries.

business business news

All Episodes

23:29

The Fed Might Not Cut At All in 2026

The Rate Guy ·

2025/10/26

On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the NBA betting scandal because apparently, Chauncey Billups was the big draw. Really? Plus, why Terry Rozier became the most bet-on player in America and what the NBA’s “thorough investigation” didn’t find. Then we pivot to the Fed: a 25bp cut is coming, but what happens next? We walk through four possible rate paths for 2026, from holding steady to cutting below 3%, and what each means for borrowers. We also talk about the impact on fixed rates, swaps

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28:59

7 Fed Members Thought They Wouldn't Be Cutting This Week

The Rate Guy ·

2025/09/15

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP unpacks the 911k job revision, rising jobless claims, and what it means for the Fed’s credibility. We dive into why the FOMC may already be behind the curve, what cuts are (and aren’t) on the table, and why markets are focused on 2026. We also touch on cap strategies and why negotiating those floors is so important. As promised here is the Cap/Floor Pricer from our website. https://www.pensford.com/resources/cap-and-floor-pricer

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17:43

Special Jackson Hole Edition

The Rate Guy ·

2025/08/22

On this episode of The Rate Guy we unpack J Money's message from the podium at Jackson Hole. What surprised us, what didn't and what needs to happen (or not happen) in order to start cutting rates.

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17:09

Bond Buying Baby

The Rate Guy ·

2025/07/14

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss this week's inflation data, GDP, the effect of the Big Beautiful Bill on the 10T and could QE be an option to cutting rates.

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14:58

The Big Beautiful Job Market

The Rate Guy ·

2025/07/06

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about the Job data and why it's skewed - per usual. We also discuss when and why the next rate cut may come, plus where the 10T will be at the end of 2025. Thoughts and prayers to our friends in Texas and the victims of the devistating flood. Wishing you the strength as you navigate really tough territory.

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13:47

The Uncertainty Bends Continue

The Rate Guy ·

2025/06/22

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about how markets are responding to the Iran conflict, how it could affect inflation and the Fed's next move as we look at the last half of 2025.

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23:52

What The Fed Will Do This Week (and The Next 12 Months)

The Rate Guy ·

2025/06/15

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about who might replace Jay$ as Fed Chair and what that could mean for the future of monetary policy. Then JP dusts off his crystal ball to give his outlook on where the Fed and interest rates are headed over the next 12 months.

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23:25

Jobs, Schmobs

The Rate Guy ·

2025/06/08

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the latest jobs report. We unpack what the numbers really signal, what that means for inflation, and why the Fed isn’t reaching for the rate cut lever just yet. Plus, you know we have to talk about what went down this past week; a Twitter showdown for the ages. Buckle up.

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20:04

The Lingering Effects of Trust Issues

The Rate Guy ·

2025/05/19

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about consumer sentiment of the top 10%, inflation's current status and how tarrifs are affecting the economy as a whole.

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20:44

Fed Meeting Primer

The Rate Guy ·

2025/05/05

On this episode of The Rate Guy we unpack all of the data from last week; Inflation, GPD, Jobs. And cautiously break down what to expect at this week's Fed meeting. The uncertainty bends are proving to be true as the market has a 50/50 chance of a cut at June's meeting....flip a coin? We also talk tariffs since we've never seen a tariff shock like this before, making it even more unpredictable. Mohammed El-Erian said it in the nicest way possible, "Markets are underestimating the depth and duration

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01:14:39

Trump Blink Counter : 2 and Special Guest Interview...

The Rate Guy ·

2025/04/27

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the back and forth around Jerome Powell's fate and the impact that has had on the Market. After that we have a special interview with the great friend and even better sport, Jon Morris aka JMo. We hear his thoughts on career, current markets and where our industry is headed.

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26:30

Other Than That, How Was the Play Mrs. Lincoln?

The Rate Guy ·

2025/04/07

This week's episode of The Rate Guy is dedicated to tariffs, tariffs and more tariffs. Trying to make sense of what they'll do to interest rates, what is keeping us up about them and the 2 things that will make the Fed start cutting rates in June.

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22:05

The Uncertainty Bends

The Rate Guy ·

2025/03/24

This week’s episode explores The Uncertainty Bends™—a not-so-scientific condition where markets, like vacationers, decompress too fast and suffer the consequences. With consumer confidence plunging, discretionary spending slowing, and the Fed stuck between inflation and recession fears, signs point to growing instability. We unpack: The latest on interest rates and consumer behavior Why sentiment may be flashing recession signals What’s driving economic uncertainty—and how long it could last

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15:56

No, the Fed is Not Hiking This Year

The Rate Guy ·

2025/01/21

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss inflation data and an interest rate outlook for 2025.

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23:24

Rate Cuts Aren't Causing a Surge

The Rate Guy ·

2025/01/13

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk the latest jobs report, challenging the narrative that the economy is overheating. We also break down this week’s inflation data and what it could mean moving forward. We also explore a possible rebuilding strategy for LA. Southern California is like a second home to us, and we’re holding LA, its residents, our friends and customers close in our thoughts and prayers during this horrific time.

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18:23

DAYzed And Confused

The Rate Guy ·

2024/12/02

On this episode of The Rate Guy it's all about inflation, jobs and how the data this week may impact the Fed's decision to cut or not at this month's meeting.

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26:50

I Can Give You the Rate or the Timeline, But Not Both...

The Rate Guy ·

2024/11/25

On this episode of The Rate Guy we draw a parallel between our family’s driving mishaps and the Fed’s approach to monetary policy. With inflation cooling and jobs slowing, the Fed is cautiously navigating an economic intersection, but are they pressing the brakes too hard—or not enough? Tune in to hear what’s ahead for rates.

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24:05

Will Deficits Push the T10 to 7%?

The Rate Guy ·

2024/11/17

This week on The Rate Guy, we explore whether deficits could push the 10-Year Treasury to 7% and why Fed policy, not just debt, drives long-term yields

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26:19

Just How Inflationary Could Tariffs Be?

The Rate Guy ·

2024/11/10

Not much happened last week...just an Election and a Fed meeting. On this episode of The Rate Guy we cover both of those and talk tariffs, their potential inflation impact, projected cuts in 2025 and whether McConnell might be Trump’s biggest obstacle.

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19:18

Gaslighting Doesn't Exist. You just Made It Up...

The Rate Guy ·

2024/11/03

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the frustration of Penn State football and draw parallels to the economy. Just like Penn State’s repeated mistakes, the labor market shows signs of weakness despite misleading headlines. We dive into the latest disappointing jobs report, rising unemployment, and the increasing likelihood of Fed rate cuts. Plus, we look ahead to a potentially volatile week with the election and Fed meeting on the horizon.

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36 results

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