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PODCAST

The Rate Guy

The Rate Guy Podcast is hosted by JP Conklin of Pensford. It"s an irreverent insight into interest rates and current markets and how they impact the Commercial Real Estate and Multifamily industries.

business business news

All Episodes

11:43

Friday Was One of The Most Volatile Weeks On Record

The Rate Guy ·

2026/03/23

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the extreme volatility of last week, what it means for rate caps, the 10T and what to be on the look out from the Fed in the upcoming weeks.

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12:42

No, The Fed Wont Hike Because of Oil

The Rate Guy ·

2026/03/15

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24:01

The Ickiest Jobs Report in Five Years

The Rate Guy ·

2026/03/08

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the economic impact of the war in Iran, a weak jobs report, and what it means for oil, inflation, and the timing of the next rate cut. The cushion the economy has relied on for the past few years may be gone, and the margin for error is getting much smaller.

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19:33

Tariffs, Medals, and Stoats

The Rate Guy ·

2026/02/23

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP draws some parallels between the winter olympics and happenings in the US Market. Gold, Silver, Bronze and Stoat are awarded. Big congrats to USA Men's and Women's Hockey Teams who took home Gold this Winter Olympics! Link to Newsletter to see graphs referenced.

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15:25

CNBC Talking Heads Fall For The Job Headlines...Again

The Rate Guy ·

2026/02/15

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the SaaSpocalypse, 3 key take aways from the Jobs Report, how (& why) we are in a disinflationary environment right now and how all of that will determine if the Fed cuts this year.

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28:08

3 Things to Know About Kevin Warsh

The Rate Guy ·

2026/02/02

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP breaks down the 3 things you absolutely need to know about Kevin Warsh being nominated as the new Fed Chair and can Thom Tillis block his nomination like he said he will.

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13:22

Fed Meeting Recap

The Rate Guy ·

2026/01/29

Miss the Fed meeting today? We've got you! We translate all the Fed-speak and highlight our favorite moments and key takeaways - like what advice J Powell has for the next Fed Chair.

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19:16

Fed Meeting Wednesday

The Rate Guy ·

2026/01/26

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what some of you may have forgotten...the Fed meeting is this week! We cover the Supreme Court's take on the Lisa Cook case, 10T behaviours, China "dumping" Treasurys and info about caps that our floating rate borrowers might be interested in. Here is the link for the Pensford Cap Pricer that we discussed. See you all Wednesday night for the FOMC recap!

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16:36

DOJ Plans to Indict Powell

The Rate Guy ·

2026/01/12

We know this is a little early to call, but this will be the most important episode of the year. So if you listen to nothing else, listen to this one. Shocking news came out late Sunday night. This has literally never happened since the existence of the Federal Reserve. The Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June. In this episode we discuss the

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12:12

J-Money's Last Rate Cut?

The Rate Guy ·

2025/12/10

On this special episode of The Rate Guy, we examine today's Fed meeting, the dissents, the jobs realization, J Powell's press conference and what it all means for current market conditions and in 2026.

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18:00

A Cut This Week But None Next Year?

The Rate Guy ·

2025/12/08

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP draws a parallel between the Penn State and Fed search for their next leader. Then we jump into what to expect at this week's meeting and a quick look ahead to next year's rate expectations. We'll be back Wednesday for a recap of the Fed meeting. For those that are curious...here's the calendar reminder screenshot. (if I could insert a facepalm emoji here I would)

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16:56

My Thanksgiving List - Markets Edition

The Rate Guy ·

2025/11/23

On this episdoe of The Rate Guy, in the spirit of Thanksgiving, JP runs through a variety of things he's thankful for with his mix of sincerity and sarcasm that we all know and love. Check out the fancy Private Social Club that we talk about and visited in Atlanta, The Perlant, here. If you want to see Philly Elementary kids go off on Dallas player themed heavy bags (yeah, you read that right) click here. Hope you all have a great Holiday this week!

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23:06

I Love the Smell of Capitalism in the Morning

The Rate Guy ·

2025/11/09

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about JP's love of all things Texas (well, maybe not the lobster mac & cheese), dig into the latest private-sector jobs data, and break down where we see interest rates heading in 2026 — plus why the impact on the 10T looks completely binary.

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23:29

The Fed Might Not Cut At All in 2026

The Rate Guy ·

2025/10/26

On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the NBA betting scandal because apparently, Chauncey Billups was the big draw. Really? Plus, why Terry Rozier became the most bet-on player in America and what the NBA’s “thorough investigation” didn’t find. Then we pivot to the Fed: a 25bp cut is coming, but what happens next? We walk through four possible rate paths for 2026, from holding steady to cutting below 3%, and what each means for borrowers. We also talk about the impact on fixed rates, swaps

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28:59

7 Fed Members Thought They Wouldn't Be Cutting This Week

The Rate Guy ·

2025/09/15

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP unpacks the 911k job revision, rising jobless claims, and what it means for the Fed’s credibility. We dive into why the FOMC may already be behind the curve, what cuts are (and aren’t) on the table, and why markets are focused on 2026. We also touch on cap strategies and why negotiating those floors is so important. As promised here is the Cap/Floor Pricer from our website. https://www.pensford.com/resources/cap-and-floor-pricer

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17:43

Special Jackson Hole Edition

The Rate Guy ·

2025/08/22

On this episode of The Rate Guy we unpack J Money's message from the podium at Jackson Hole. What surprised us, what didn't and what needs to happen (or not happen) in order to start cutting rates.

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17:09

Bond Buying Baby

The Rate Guy ·

2025/07/14

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss this week's inflation data, GDP, the effect of the Big Beautiful Bill on the 10T and could QE be an option to cutting rates.

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14:58

The Big Beautiful Job Market

The Rate Guy ·

2025/07/06

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about the Job data and why it's skewed - per usual. We also discuss when and why the next rate cut may come, plus where the 10T will be at the end of 2025. Thoughts and prayers to our friends in Texas and the victims of the devistating flood. Wishing you the strength as you navigate really tough territory.

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13:47

The Uncertainty Bends Continue

The Rate Guy ·

2025/06/22

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about how markets are responding to the Iran conflict, how it could affect inflation and the Fed's next move as we look at the last half of 2025.

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23:52

What The Fed Will Do This Week (and The Next 12 Months)

The Rate Guy ·

2025/06/15

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about who might replace Jay$ as Fed Chair and what that could mean for the future of monetary policy. Then JP dusts off his crystal ball to give his outlook on where the Fed and interest rates are headed over the next 12 months.

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49 results

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