AI Economics Research Podcast

00:08:14

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/05/23

This episode delves into an OECD research paper that challenges conventional wisdom on forecasting recessions. We explore how a "wisdom of crowds" approach, averaging predictions from multiple simple models, can be as effective as advanced machine learning techniques like Random Forests for predicting economic downturns in OECD countries. Do you have thoughts on the best forecasting methods? Share them with us at feedback@econpod.org.This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for

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00:08:28

Bank of England: Uncovering 'Non-Standard Errors' –...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/05/16

This episode explains a Bank of England Staff Working Paper, "Non-standard errors," by Albert J Menkveld et al., exploring how variations in researcher choices introduce significant "non-standard errors" into scientific findings. We break down their study of 164 teams testing hypotheses on the same data, revealing these errors are substantial, decrease with peer feedback, and are often underestimated by participants. Have thoughts or questions on how researcher bias impacts economic insights? Send

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00:08:49

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports:...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/05/08

This episode dives into a Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report that explores a critical challenge in information disclosure: how to ensure a sender, like a bank regulator, can truly commit to a disclosure rule without manipulating signals after the fact. We'll break down how the paper introduces 'Receiver-Private Certified Bayesian Persuasion,' revealing why cryptography, specifically secure two-party computation, is not just a tool but a necessary condition to prevent ex-post information

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00:06:40

Bank of England: How UK Recessions Make Negative...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/05/04

This episode breaks down a new Bank of England research paper that explores how economic cycles, like recessions, impact the stability of earnings for UK households. It reveals that during downturns, negative income shocks become more frequent, even if the overall spread of income changes remains similar, and introduces a new model to track these crucial dynamics for policymakers. Tune in to understand why this matters for financial stability and macroeconomic policy, and share your thoughts with us

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00:07:36

Bank of England: Picking the Right Tools for...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/05/03

This episode breaks down a recent Bank of England working paper, exploring the best econometric methods for accurately estimating structural parameters in complex economic models. We demystify Local Projections (LP) versus Vector Autoregressions (VAR), and compare Impulse Response Function (IRF) matching with Indirect Inference. Discover why Indirect Inference is often the more robust and reliable approach for central banks and researchers.This episode explains a real academic paper in plain

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00:06:54

Bank for International Settlements: Unlocking...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/05/02

This episode delves into a groundbreaking research paper from the Bank for International Settlements, exploring how artificial intelligence is being harnessed to monitor and predict financial market stress. We break down a novel approach that combines recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to forecast market dysfunction with large language models (LLMs) to explain the underlying drivers. Discover how this dual AI system can identify "canaries in the coal mine" like deviations in currency arbitrage,

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00:07:18

Bank of England: Understanding Machine Learning in...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/04/25

This episode delves into a Bank of England research paper exploring how machine learning is being applied in central banking and policy analysis. We break down complex AI concepts into plain English, showing how tools like neural networks are used for economic forecasting, financial regulation, and understanding market trends. Discover the future of data-driven decision-making at institutions vital to financial stability.This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general

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00:06:46

Bank for International Settlements: AI Adoption in...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/04/18

This episode dives into a new Bank for International Settlements (BIS) research paper investigating Artificial Intelligence (AI) adoption across European firms. Learn how AI boosts labor productivity by 4% without displacing jobs in the short term, primarily through 'capital deepening.' We explore the uneven distribution of these gains, the role of complementary investments, and the critical implications for economic policy.This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general

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00:07:36

Bank for International Settlements: High-Frequency...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/04/15

This episode delves into a new research paper from the Bank for International Settlements, exploring how the lightning speed of high-frequency trading (HFT) influences the cost of capital for companies. We uncover how HFT can paradoxically raise capital costs for some stocks by amplifying systematic risk, while simultaneously reducing it for others through improved liquidity. Discover the crucial implications of these complex findings for financial market regulation and real economic outcomes. This

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00:06:09

Bank of England: Boosting Economic Forecast Accuracy...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/04/14

This episode breaks down a Bank of England research paper that significantly improves economic forecasting methods. It explains how economists use advanced statistical models, factor augmentation, and account for asymmetric loss and volatility to create more accurate predictions. Tune in to understand how these sophisticated adjustments enhance forecast performance across a range of economic variables. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source

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00:05:45

Bank of England: How Bayesian VARs Forecast the...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/04/14

This episode breaks down a Bank of England Staff Working Paper, explaining how economists use advanced statistical models called Bayesian Vector Autoregressions (VARs). Discover how these powerful tools help central bankers and researchers forecast key economic and financial variables and understand the impact of policies like interest rate changes. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source

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00:06:50

Bank of England: How Machine Learning Uses Surveys &...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/04/05

This episode dives into a Bank of England Staff Working Paper exploring how machine learning techniques can enhance macroeconomic forecasting. We break down the paper's findings on using diverse data sources, from traditional surveys to text-based indicators from news articles, to predict economic activity. Discover which models and data combinations yield the most accurate predictions and why the biggest gains are often seen in the short term.This episode explains a real academic paper in plain

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00:09:49

Bank of England: Can We Trust AI's Reasons? Exploring...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/04/03

This episode unpacks a recent Bank of England research paper on the often-overlooked 'fragility' of deep learning models in finance. We explore how subtle changes can cause AI to give vastly different *explanations* for its decisions, even when predictions are identical. Discover the significant implications this has for financial stability, risk management, and regulatory practices.This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Deep learning

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00:08:04

Bank of England: Interpretable AI for Smarter...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/03/28

This episode breaks down a Bank of England research paper on using interpretable machine learning for economic forecasting. Discover how advanced AI models can outperform traditional methods by uncovering complex, time-varying relationships in data, specifically demonstrated through forecasting US unemployment. We explain how a new workflow makes these powerful predictions transparent and actionable for decision-makers.This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general

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00:07:09

Bank of England: Who Really Profited from British...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/03/28

This podcast episode explains groundbreaking Bank of England research uncovering the financial mechanics behind Britain's 1833 slavery abolition compensation. Delve into newly analyzed archival data to understand who truly benefited from the £20 million payout to slave-owners, revealing the crucial role of London's financial institutions and intermediaries in quickly monetizing these government assets. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source

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00:08:46

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports:...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/03/24

This episode explores a Federal Reserve Bank of New York research paper on the economic effects of legalizing mobile sports betting. We unpack how betting and consumer credit distress can spill across state borders, impacting credit scores and delinquency rates, especially for younger individuals. Understand the fiscal asymmetry created for states that haven't legalized, bearing costs without the tax benefits, all explained in plain English.This episode explains a real academic paper in plain

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