AI Economics Research Podcast

00:09:02

Federal Reserve: How Survey Wording Changes What We...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/10/04

This episode unpacks a Federal Reserve working paper that reveals why economists get vastly different estimates of the Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) – how much people spend from an unexpected windfall – depending on how survey questions are phrased. Using a randomized survey experiment, researchers show that subtle differences between 'direct' and 'filtered' questions dramatically alter reported spending intentions, impacting our understanding of consumer behavior and policy effectiveness

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00:09:00

Bank of England: When Inflation Indexes Misguide...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/09/25

This episode explains a Bank of England research paper that challenges whether the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is always the best guide for monetary policy, arguing that expenditure weights and stabilization weights can diverge. It unpacks how differentiating between "discretionary" and "necessity" inflation components can lead to better welfare outcomes, especially for the euro area, by aligning policy actions with sectors most responsive to interest rates. We break down this crucial concept in

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00:10:50

Federal Reserve: Why Don't More Americans Get...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/09/19

This episode breaks down a recent Federal Reserve research paper exploring who earns economics PhDs in the U.S. and the structural factors shaping access and success in the field. We delve into why U.S.-born students, particularly those from underrepresented backgrounds, face barriers and what pipeline programs and mentorship models can do to expand opportunities in advanced economics research careers. Read the full paper at https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/working-papers/2026/2026-13 and

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00:07:42

Bank of England: Why Did UK Homeowners Choose Pricier...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/09/12

Dive into a new Bank of England research paper that unpacks how UK homeowners reacted to the September 2022 mini-budget's interest rate shock. This episode explains in plain English why many borrowers opted for shorter, pricier two-year fixed-rate mortgages, prioritizing flexibility and potential equity extraction over longer-term rate insurance. Join us to understand the complex decisions behind mortgage refinancing and the trade-off between rate protection and financial agility. You can find the

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00:11:12

Bank of England: Why Interest Rate Hikes Hurt...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/09/05

This episode delves into a Bank of England research paper exploring how monetary policy's effects on innovation and productivity can be surprisingly persistent. We break down findings showing that firms without access to cash flow-based borrowing—lending against earnings rather than physical collateral—cut R&D significantly more after interest rate hikes, leading to lasting impacts on economic output. Discover the crucial role of firm financing in the transmission of monetary policy and how

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00:10:12

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports:...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/08/28

This episode delves into a new Federal Reserve Bank of New York research paper introducing "ordinal complementarity," a robust way to understand how inputs interact in production processes. We'll explain why this definition offers stronger, more reliable policy implications, particularly for social planner problems and the empirical study of cognitive skill formation in children. Read the full paper at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1199 and share your thoughts at

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00:09:36

Bank of England: Does Higher Productivity Always Mean...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/08/21

This episode unpacks a recent Bank of England research paper, "Productivity and Inflation Dynamics," explaining in plain English why higher productivity doesn't always guarantee lower inflation. We delve into how the timing of demand and supply responses, alongside central bank policy, determines whether productivity growth fuels or dampens price pressures. Send your feedback or questions to feedback@econpod.org, and find the full paper at

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00:07:09

Bank of England: How Cloud Computing Reshapes...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/08/15

This episode dives into a new Bank of England staff working paper exploring how cloud outsourcing is impacting competition in the UK banking sector. We break down how banks' use of Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) affects their costs, deposit growth, and the competitive landscape, particularly for smaller institutions, and how this interacts with capital requirements. Learn how this technological shift could be reducing barriers to entry and reshaping financial stability. For questions or discussion,

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00:08:46

Bank of England: Why Interest Rate Hikes Hit House...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/08/08

This episode breaks down a new Bank of England research paper on how monetary policy impacts the housing sector. It explores why rising interest rates cause house prices to fall while rents remain stable for extended periods, and reveals the crucial role of individual landlords' behavior in this transmission. For more details, read the paper at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2025/monetary-transmission-through-the-housing-sector.pdf, and share your thoughts at

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00:07:20

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS: How Job Switching...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/08/01

This episode breaks down a recent paper from the FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS that reveals how job switching—known as employer-to-employer (EE) transitions—significantly influences inflation and impacts optimal monetary policy decisions. We explore why central banks need to consider job mobility alongside unemployment rates to accurately forecast price changes and set interest rates, with examples from the Great Recession and the Great Resignation. Dive deeper into the research at

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00:08:24

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports:...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/07/25

This episode explores a fascinating research paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, diving into the critical difference between programmable payments and programmable money. As central banks worldwide explore digital currencies, understanding this distinction is vital to ensure new monetary systems don't compromise the fundamental qualities of "good" money like uniformity and fungibility. Discover how a new framework clarifies this debate, and share your thoughts at feedback@econpod.org

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00:07:29

Bank of England: Why Imperfect Expectations Improve...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/07/18

This episode unpacks a Bank of England staff working paper by Jamie Lenney and Biagio Rosso, exploring how economic models can better reflect real-world human behavior. We dive into a new flexible approach that moves beyond traditional rational expectations, allowing for agents to overreact or underreact to economic conditions and news. Learn how incorporating these 'behavioural expectations' significantly improves the empirical fit of macroeconomic models, especially when forecasting inflation. We

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00:09:02

Bank of England: How Central Bank Communication...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/07/11

This episode dives into a Bank of England research paper by Eric Tong and Rennae Cherry, titled "Central bank communications that reach the public." We explore how central bank messages, as encountered through news media, actually shape households' inflation expectations, challenging the traditional view that central bank communication rarely reaches the public. Learn why measuring communication as the public experiences it is crucial for understanding its impact on financial stability and

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00:07:38

Bank of England: Digital Money, Private Issuers, and...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/07/04

This episode breaks down a new Bank of England research paper that explores how rapid innovation in digital payments and new private digital monies challenge the idea that all money should trade at par—a concept known as "monetary singleness." Discover when small deviations from par are efficient and why central bank reserves and cash are crucial for financial stability in an evolving digital landscape. Read the full paper at

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00:07:07

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports:...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/06/27

This episode dives into a Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report that uses big data from foot traffic to uncover hidden demand shocks affecting businesses in New York City. We explore how retail, service, and health establishments experience highly varied and unpredictable changes in customer demand, challenging traditional economic assumptions. Hear the plain English explanation of this cutting-edge research and share your thoughts at feedback@econpod.org.This episode explains a real

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00:09:06

Bank of England: Do AI Models Share Our Inflation...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/06/20

This episode dives into a new Bank of England research paper exploring whether Large Language Models like GPT-3.5 Turbo can form inflation perceptions and expectations similar to human households. Using a clever quasi-experimental design, the study compares LLM outputs to survey data, revealing how AI responds to economic signals and its surprising sensitivity to food inflation. Discover the implications for economic forecasting and social science research, and share your thoughts at

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00:08:42

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS: The Economics of...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/06/13

This episode breaks down a recent Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis research paper, offering a strategic economic analysis of narcoterrorism in plain English. We explore how terrorist groups extort drug farmers for funding, how developed nations use crop destruction as a counterterrorism tool, and the complex interplay of drug markets, terror financing, and international policy. For questions or discussion, email feedback@econpod.org.This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for

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00:06:24

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS: Does the Money...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/06/07

This episode breaks down a research paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, exploring whether different measures of the money supply are useful for forecasting US inflation. Using advanced non-linear techniques, the authors find limited support for monetary aggregates as reliable inflation predictors in the early to mid-2000s. Dive into the specifics of this intriguing macroeconomic study at https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/10440/original and share your thoughts at

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00:06:49

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS: Does Money Supply...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/06/06

This episode dives into a Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis research paper asking a crucial question: Do monetary aggregates actually help forecast inflation? We break down the paper's novel approach using neural networks and kernel regression to evaluate money's predictive power for US inflation in the early 2000s, explaining the findings in plain English. For more details, find the original paper at https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/10440/original, and we welcome your feedback and discussion at

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00:08:43

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS: How Combining...

AI Economics Research Podcast ·

2026/05/29

This episode dives into a Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis research paper that examines how to make economic forecasts more accurate, particularly in an environment of structural change. We break down how combining "recursive" (using all available data) and "rolling" (using only recent data) forecasting methods can significantly improve prediction quality. Learn about this innovative strategy and share your feedback at feedback@econpod.org, or read the full paper at

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