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PODCAST

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

Patrick McKenzie

We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.

business investing

All Episodes

75:41

Building software that survives contact with reality,...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/09/04

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Will Wilson, CEO of Antithesis, to discuss the evolution of software testing from traditional approaches to cutting-edge deterministic simulation. Will explains how his team built technology that creates "time machines" for distributed systems, enabling developers to find and debug complex failures that would be nearly impossible to reproduce in traditional testing environments. They explore how this approach scales from finding novel bugs in Super

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62:47

Defense, drones, and military procurement, with Bean...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/08/28

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Bean, a pseudonymous defense industry expert, to explore the intellectual crossovers between military and civilian domains. The conversation reveals how the defense industry's fundamental constraint of having only one customer (a monopsony) creates entirely different incentives than tech, leading to conservatism and 30-50 year product lifecycles. Bean argues that drones are largely modern iterations of cruise missiles we've had since the 1950s, and

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64:04

AI and the great developer speed-up, with Joel Becker...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/08/21

This week on Complex Systems, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Joel Becker from METR. They discuss groundbreaking research on AI coding assistants.Joel et al’s randomized controlled trial of 16 expert developers working on major open source projects revealed a counterintuitive finding: despite predictions of 24-40% speed improvements, developers actually took 19% longer to complete tasks when using AI tools, even though they retrospectively believed they were 20% faster. The

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34:59

How Banks Actually Work (And Don't Work)

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/08/14

In this solo episode, Patrick McKenzie reads his classic essay "Seeing Like a Bank," exploring why financial institutions often appear to have no memory of previous customer interactions despite being excellent at tracking money itself. He breaks down the complex web of legacy systems, tiered support structures, and regulatory constraints that create Kafka-esque experiences for bank customers. Using the lens of institutional legibility borrowed from "Seeing Like a State," Patrick explains

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77:12

Building software in Japan, with Jim Weisser

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/08/07

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Jim Weisser, a serial entrepreneur and founder of SignTime, for an in-depth exploration of Japan's software market and startup ecosystem. They discuss the unique challenges of building software in a culture that prizes stability over rapid iteration, the dominance of systems integrators, and how Japan's economic stagnation shaped its relationship with technology. The conversation covers everything from Excel-driven development processes to the recent

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64:10

Startup investing in Tokyo, with Coral Capital’s...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/07/31

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by James Riney, partner at Coral Capital, to explore Japan's transformation from a $700 million startup ecosystem to today's $5-10 billion market. They discuss the cultural and structural factors that initially limited venture activity in Japan. The conversation covers unique aspects of building startups in Japan, from the quirks of being a foreign professional to why Japanese engineers love Twitter but ignore LinkedIn, plus insights into Japan's "time

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45:41

How AI reshapes the craft of software engineering,...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/07/24

Patrick McKenzie is joined by AI researcher Yoav Tzfati to discuss “vibe coding” - using LLMs to delegate software engineering work to AI models. Yoav runs a bootcamp teaching programming novices to build full-stack web applications using AI, without them ever looking at code. Patrick and Yoav discuss the fundamental shift in software engineering, where humans increasingly act as product managers directing AI "junior engineers," and explore the implications for the future of programming

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46:39

Stacking the odds: Cate Hall on agency and outlier...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/07/17

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Cate Hall, CEO of Astera Institute and author of a forthcoming book on agency, to explore how individuals can systematically develop higher agency in their lives. They discuss the selection effects that draw agentic people to fields like poker and startups, the importance of being comfortable with ignorance and feedback, and practical strategies like asking "Is there a better way to do this?" ten times daily. Cate shares insights from her journey from

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115:18

Think like a trader, with Ricki Heicklen

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/07/10

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Ricki Heicklen to discuss the evolution of her trading education business, Arbor, one year after their first conversation. They dive deep into the pedagogy of trading, exploring how simulated markets teach concepts like adverse selection, team dynamics, and risk management through hands-on experience. Ricki shares war stories from the bootcamp trenches—infinite loop bugs that mirror Knight Capital's disaster, WiFi outages that create unexpected

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69:10

Achieving results in the physical world, with Adam...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/07/03

Patrick McKenzie is joined by Adam Jarvis, author of the Public Service substack and a New Zealand civil engineer and public sector veteran. They discuss how political capital constraints, funding misalignment across government levels, and accumulated regulatory "scar tissue" make infrastructure projects extraordinarily difficult. The conversation reveals why replacing a water pipe now costs more in planning than the entire project did a decade ago, and how talent sorting has drained

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45:50

The AI infrastructure stack with Jennifer Li, a16z

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/06/26

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Jennifer Li, a general partner at a16z investing in enterprise, infrastructure and AI. Jennifer breaks down how AI workloads are creating new demands on everything from inference pipelines to observability systems, explaining why we're seeing a bifurcation between language models and diffusion models at the infrastructure level. They explore emerging categories like reinforcement learning environments that help train agents, the

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51:50

Getting better at LLMs, with Zvi Mowshowitz

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/06/12

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) recorded with Zvi Mowshowitz (TheZvi) live at the LessOnline conference. They explore practical strategies for getting better results from large language models. Zvi explains how to customize AI behavior through thoughtful system prompts, while Patrick shares techniques for using LLMs as writing partners and research assistants. They discuss the evolving relationship between content creators and AI training data, touching on the emerging field of

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81:16

Machine learning meets malware, with Caleb Fenton

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/06/05

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) discusses software reversing and AI's transformative impact on cybersecurity with Caleb Fenton, co-founder of Delphos Labs. They explore how LLMs are revolutionizing the traditionally tedious work of analyzing compiled binaries, the nation-state cyber warfare landscape, and how AI is shifting security from reactive to proactive defense. They cover the technical details of malware analysis, the economics of vulnerability detection, and the broader implications as

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45:21

How to negotiate your salary package

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/05/29

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) revisits his widely-shared negotiation essay, which he notes may be the most impactful thing he's done in his career aside from VaccinateCA. The essay covers the psychology and tactics of salary negotiation, emphasizing that engineers have turned being bad at negotiation into a "perverse badge of virtue" and that the financial stakes are enormous—a small salary increase compounds over decades to six-figure differences. Patrick walks through

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63:27

Capitalist's guide to podcasting, with Ross...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/05/22

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and returning guest Ross Rheingans-Yoo discuss the strategic advantages of starting a podcast, particularly for professionals seeking to build trust, expand their networks, and support fundraising efforts. They explore the nuts and bolts of podcast production models, recording logistics, transcript creation, and how to make the experience frictionless for high-value guests. Ross shares his thought process around his newly-launched show Development

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61:43

Killing viruses with light, with Jacob Swett

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/05/15

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Jacob Swett of Blueprint Biosecurity to discuss far UVC technology - a specialized wavelength of UV light that kills airborne pathogens while remaining safe for humans. Jacob explains how widespread deployment of this technology in schools, hospitals, and public spaces could dramatically reduce respiratory diseases and prevent future pandemics, comparing our approach to air quality with the water sanitation revolution that eliminated

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80:53

Life insurance and your money, with Zac Townsend

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/05/08

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Zac Townsend, a serial founder and CEO of Meanwhile, a fully regulated life insurance company operating in Bitcoin. They explore the differences between life and property insurance, explain why term life is essential financial protection everyone should consider, and dive into the tax benefits that shape the industry. Zac shares insights on how private equity firms are acquiring insurers for their stable capital base, and explains

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53:39

Fixing government technology, with Mikey Dickerson

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/05/01

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Mikey Dickerson to discuss the complex realities behind government software projects. Mikey shares insights from leading the healthcare.gov rescue effort and founding the United States Digital Service, explaining how procurement processes create requirements through committee decision-making without market-based feedback loops. They explore how government systems handle software development differently than industry, with Mikey

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59:35

Understanding and wielding power in local government,...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/04/24

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Daniel Golliher, founder of Maximum New York, to discuss the opaque mechanics of political power and how everyday people can effectively engage with government systems. They explore the stark gap between formal political science degrees and how politics actually works, practical tactics for influencing policy (like optimizing the printability of a blog post to placing well-timed calls to legislators), and Daniel’s concept of ‘blue

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66:05

The AI energy bottleneck, with Tim Fist

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/04/17

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Tim Fist, Director of Emerging Technologies at the Institute for Progress, to discuss how energy constraints could bottleneck AI development. They explore how AI training clusters will soon require gigawatts of power—equivalent to multiple nuclear plants—with projections showing a single cluster needing 5 gigawatts by 2030. Tim explains why behind-the-meter generation and geothermal energy offer promising solutions while regulatory

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79 results

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