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PODCAST

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

Patrick McKenzie

We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.

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All Episodes

78:23

We should stop burning pharma trials’ lab notes, with...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2026/01/22

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ruxandra Teslo to discuss why drug development keeps getting more expensive despite revolutionary new treatment modalities from GLP-1 agonists to gene therapies. They discuss Eroom’s Law (Moore’s Law in reverse) and Ruxandra's Common Technical Document Project, which aims to build the "Stack Overflow of clinical development" by making regulatory submissions publicly accessible. This will fill a present hole in the education of researchers, lower

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54:15

Your support rep is also trapped in this call, with...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2026/01/15

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) sits down with Intercom co-founder Des Traynor to examine customer support through the lens of Conway's Law, Goodhart's Law, and several decades of accumulated organizational scar tissue. They discuss how AI agents are democratizing white-glove service, why modern LLMs have retrained user expectations around “chatbots” very quickly, and the surprisingly liberating effect of talking to something that will never judge you for missing a loan payment.–Full transcript

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38:51

The magic spell that makes banks give you your money...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2026/01/08

Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) reads his latest Bits about Money essay explaining why he “loves Regulation E more than any rational person does.” He explains how Reg E created a privately-administered legal system processing over 100 million complaints annually—dwarfing the formal U.S. court system—and why banks are now trying to avoid these obligations for Zelle's nine figure fraud problem.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-magic-spell-reg-e/– Sponsors: MongoDB

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50:25

2025 in review, with Sammy Cottrell

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2026/01/03

Our annual year-in-review episode covers some recurring themes from 2025 and some behind-the-curtains discussion of running a podcast. Patrick McKenzie (patio11) sits down with producer Sammy Cottrell to discuss the most popular episodes of the year, the impact of AI coding tools, the challenges of video podcasting, Sammy's role as a "fixer" finding guests, and much more.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/2025-in-review-with-sammy-cottrell/–Sponsor:Framer is a

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15:53

Gift cards and the fraud supply chain

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/12/26

For this week's holiday-inspired Complex Systems, Patrick reads his essay from Bits about Money on the gift card paradox: a legitimate payments rail, yet also a primary vector for fraud that leaves victims without recourse.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/gift-cards-and-the-fraud-supply-chain/–Sponsors: Givewell & Framer Support proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell. Go to

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26:11

Understanding perpetual futures

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/12/11

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) walks through how perpetual futures work, from funding rates to liquidations to the surprise of automatic deleveraging. Perps are the dominant trading mechanism in crypto (6-8X larger than spot volume) and exist primarily to let exchanges and market makers run casinos more capital-efficiently. He explains why this intellectually interesting innovation probably won't escape crypto, despite what crypto enthusiasts might expect.–Full transcript

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47:38

The economics of discovery, with Ben Reinhardt

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/12/04

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ben Reinhardt, founder of Speculative Technologies, to examine how science gets funded in the United States and why the current system leaves much to be desired. They dissect the outdated taxonomy of basic, applied, and development research, categories encoded into law that fail to capture how actual breakthrough science happens.–Full transcript available here:

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78:31

Understanding equity at tech companies, with Billy...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/11/20

Why do billions of dollars of stock trade hands based on napkin math and vibes? Billy Gallagher, CEO of Prospect and former Rippling employee, joins Patrick McKenzie (patio11) to walk through the information asymmetry that costs less-sophisticated employees massive amounts of money. From understanding when to early exercise options to navigating 83B elections and tender offers, they discuss the critical decisions that have a shot clock ticking the day you sign your offer letter.–Full

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28:31

The $4,000 insurance policy designed to never pay out

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/11/13

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his essay on title insurance, a service designed to never be performed with a "laughably low" 5% loss ratio compared to 50-80% for almost all types of insurance. The typical American moves every seven to eight years, paying a $500 annual tax for basically no good or service. This is due to a quirk about how America records real estate ownership: it mostly doesn’t. Confused? Welcome to the joyous anarchy that is American real estate.–Full transcript available

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33:11

How deposit insurance actually works

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/11/06

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his Bits about Money essay on deposit insurance, explaining this critical financial infrastructure, with some thoughts on its performance during 2023. He covers what deposit insurance actually covers (and critically, what it doesn't), how fintech users often misunderstand their exposure to counterparty risk, and the anatomy of bank failures. This is infrastructure you rely on as much as electricity: ubiquitous, critical, hopefully invisible, and worth

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28:48

Home improvement lending with fewer bankers and more...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/10/30

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie reads his essay about the financial infrastructure that makes buying windows painless. When a window installer can originate, underwrite, and fund a $25,000 loan in 15 minutes before leaving your house, it's because four parties—window companies, facilitating platforms, specialized banks, and capital providers—have built a system that actually works. Patrick explains how modern consumer lending learned from 2008 to create better underwriting, clearer

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91:37

Talking to the Bank of England about systemic risk...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/10/23

Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) shares his remarks to the Bank of England on critical vulnerabilities in financial infrastructure. Drawing from the July 2024 CrowdStrike outage which brought down teller systems at major US banks, Patrick discusses how regulatory guidance inadvertently created dangerous software monocultures. He also examines the stablecoin market, its impressive growth, and the elephant tethered to the room. He also delivers a message from Silicon Valley to other centers of

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91:19

Narrative, mastery, and character bleed in games,...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/10/16

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Ricki Heicklen to discuss Metagame 2025, a conference where 250 attendees were divided into Purple and Orange teams competing for territories across campus. Patrick built a complete roguelike RPG in 25 days using LLMs, discovering that providing minimal world-building context transformed generic fantasy outputs into emotionally resonant storytelling. They discuss the power and responsibility of game designers, how games create pedagogical

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74:44

Bits and bricks: Oliver Habryka on LessWrong,...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/10/09

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Oliver Habryka, who runs Lightcone Infrastructure—the organization behind both the LessWrong forum and the Lighthaven conference venue in Berkeley. They explore how LessWrong became one of the most intellectually consequential forums on the internet, the surprising challenges of running a hotel with fractal geometry, and why Berkeley's building regulations include an explicit permission to plug in a lamp. The conversation ranges from fire codes that

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72:10

Building institutions that bend towards truth, with...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/10/02

Patrick McKenzie is joined by Clara Collier, editor and publisher of Asterisk Magazine, to discuss how we create institutions that bend towards truth. Clara explains why she launched a quarterly print magazine in the Internet age. She traces how 19th century German universities invented the modern infrastructure for rewarding knowledge production and training researchers at scale, and where our public science communication falls short of that heritage. The conversation examines why

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46:50

How blogging went legit, with Substack CEO Chris Best

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/09/25

Patrick McKenzie is joined by Chris Best, CEO of Substack, to discuss how the platform created new economic infrastructure for independent media. They explore Substack's evolution from a simple newsletter tool to a full media network, the revenue guarantee program that attracted prominent writers, and the company's principled stance on press freedom during the "cancel culture" years. Chris explains how subscription-based business models create better incentive alignment than attention-based

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91:28

Prestige media, new media, and the US government,...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/09/19

Patrick McKenzie is joined again by Kelsey Piper, who has co-founded "The Argument" to revive principled liberal discourse after witnessing how coordinated social media campaigns replaced substantive disagreement in newsrooms. Their conversation traces this institutional breakdown from media to government, examining how DOGE's spreadsheet-driven governance nearly destroyed PEPFAR, America's most successful foreign aid program that had driven infant coffin manufacturers out of business

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87:28

AI alignment, with Emmett Shear

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/09/11

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Emmett Shear, co-founder of Twitch, former interim CEO of OpenAI, who now runs Softmax AI alignment. Emmett argues that current AI safety approaches focused on "systems of control" are fundamentally flawed and proposes "organic alignment" instead—where AI systems develop genuine care for their local communities rather than following rigid rules. –Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/ai-alignment-with-emmett-shear/–Sponsor:

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75:41

Building software that survives contact with reality,...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/09/04

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Will Wilson, CEO of Antithesis, to discuss the evolution of software testing from traditional approaches to cutting-edge deterministic simulation. Will explains how his team built technology that creates "time machines" for distributed systems, enabling developers to find and debug complex failures that would be nearly impossible to reproduce in traditional testing environments. They explore how this approach scales from finding novel bugs in Super

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62:47

Defense, drones, and military procurement, with Bean...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2025/08/28

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Bean, a pseudonymous defense industry expert, to explore the intellectual crossovers between military and civilian domains. The conversation reveals how the defense industry's fundamental constraint of having only one customer (a monopsony) creates entirely different incentives than tech, leading to conservatism and 30-50 year product lifecycles. Bean argues that drones are largely modern iterations of cruise missiles we've had since the 1950s, and

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77 results

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