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PODCAST

Global Data Pod

J.P. Morgan Global Research

Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.

business

All Episodes

30:03

Global Data Pod Weekender: Additional renovations on...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/08/08

Global industry is stalling at midyear and we look for the soft patch to continue as the trade war bites and global capex growth softens. The Fed looks likely to restart its easing cycle in September. The addition of Stephen Miran to the Fed opens the door to significant reforms, some of which could threaten independence.This podcast was recorded on August 8, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures

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31:55

Global Data Pod Research Rap: The shifting nature of...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/08/08

Nora Szentivanyi and Tingting Ge discuss their latest research on China’s evolving role in global goods disinflation, the impact of higher US tariffs on China’s trade with the rest of the world, its export price competitiveness and the implications of currency movements for the inflation outlook. We also expand on the root-causes of China’s excess capacity and whether the government’s latest anti-involution measures are gaining traction. This podcast was recorded on 08 August 2025. This

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30:51

Global Data Pod Weekender: Downside risks re-emerge

Global Data Pod ·

2025/08/01

First-half resilience and robust risk markets have challenged our forecast for a sharp deceleration in 2H25 and tempered risks of recession. This week’s news on global industry and the US labor market affirms our call.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 1 August 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All

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48:41

Global Data Pod: EM capital flows discontented we remain

Global Data Pod ·

2025/07/29

Jahangir Aziz and Katie Marney discuss sluggish EM capital flows against a backdrop of trade uncertainty, risks to global growth, elevated treasury yields, and a weaker dollar. EM capital flows have been languishing and shifting in composition since about 2015. Hopes that a weaker US dollar would break EM capital flows out its malaise have not been fulfilled. We explore our finding that dollar’s influence as a push factor for EM investment flows has been waning, while US Treasury yields matter more

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40:23

Global Data Pod Weekender: Fake it till you make it

Global Data Pod ·

2025/07/25

As trade (hand-shake) deals get made, it is looking increasingly likely that the effective tariff rate is going to settle very close to the 22% rate initially announced on April 2. And yet, the global expansion looks resilient through 1H25. Is the shock just not that big? Is there more fundamental support for growth? Are businesses willing to smooth the shock over time? Are easy financial conditions short-circuiting the shock? Or is it just too soon, with the past flattered by front-loading and a

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34:48

Global Data Pod Weekender: Inflation, politics, and...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/07/18

The latest data keep the inflation and growth backdrop challenging for central banks. Politics are an added wrinkle for the Fed.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 18 July 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed

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32:26

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: June...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/07/17

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson to discuss key takeaways from the June CPI reports and key drivers shaping the outlook. Global core inflation remains stuck close to a 3%ar following a broad-based––and somewhat unexpected––firming in services inflation (ex Asia) in June, and broad stability in core goods inflation. US inflation data show increasing evidence of tariff pass-through to core goods prices but overall core inflation has still come in softer than we expected in recent months

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31:59

Global Data Pod Weekender: Let me count the ways

Global Data Pod ·

2025/07/11

Our global forecast looks for a sharp slowing in growth in the coming months, concentrated in the US. Despite this contrasting with the more benign outlook apparent in risk markets, we see downside risks edging higher on US trade and immigration policies. Recent US fiscal policies should provide some offset but likely less than advertised.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 11 July 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional

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37:54

Global Data Pod Weekender: Taking stock at midyear

Global Data Pod ·

2025/06/27

We published our midyear outlook this week, highlighting expectations for a significant stagflationary shift in 2H25 and our limited confidence in forecasting the magnitude of this shift. We expect global GDP growth to fall well below potential, while the US tariff shock is expected to increase overall global inflation. Despite the uncertainty, we are observing a shift in market signals away from the narrative of weaker growth and rising inflation. One key message from the markets is a growing

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38:27

Global Data Pod Weekender: You can get there from here

Global Data Pod ·

2025/06/20

The first half is tracking roughly in line with our trend-like outlook just ahead of the US election last year. However, 2H25 should deliver a very different picture if our forecast is right. Assessing risks ahead of such an anticipated slowing is difficult but this does not stop us from debating. Central banks are leaning dovish in light of the downside growth risks, with the exception of the Fed facing upside tariff-related inflation risks. The Mideast war adds a new supply shock to complicate the

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35:22

Global Data Pod Weekender: Gauging the coming slowdown

Global Data Pod ·

2025/06/13

The drags on global growth related to the trade war are building but there remains considerable uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of the coming downshift in global growth. For its part we expect the FOMC will remain cautious this week and reduce the easing incorporated in its 2025 projections even in the face of benign inflation news.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 13 June 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only

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28:43

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor:...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/06/12

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss key takeaways from the May CPI reports and the outlook for the rest of the year. While May inflation surprised softer in both the US and Euro area, pass-through from tariffs is still expected to push US core inflation higher with core PCE rising to 3.4% on a 4q/4q basis. At the same time, the Euro area’s path to 2% core HICP looks more assured after the unwind of the April Easter effect. We still think US trade policy

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29:57

Global Data Pod Weekender: Identification in the time...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/06/06

The global economy looks to be posting trend-like growth in 1H25. How much of this is underlying resilience in a healthy expansion and how much is transitory front-loading set to reverse in 2H25 is central to the outlook. The data show resilience, notably in job growth, but cracks are growing in global industry. We maintain a baseline of no recession while also seeing risks elevated at 40%.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 6 June 2025. This communication is

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32:12

Global Data Pod Weekender: Not so fast on the off-ramp

Global Data Pod ·

2025/05/30

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss their view that hopes of a court-led off-ramp to the US war on trade are overstated. They maintain that the risks are skewed toward higher, not lower, tariffs. However, the trajectory of growth is complicated by prior front-loading and there is debate about how to track resilience. Weakness could presage recession, muddle-through, or rebound. The latter scenario risks Fed cuts only to be followed by hikes.This podcast was recorded on May 30, 2025

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37:04

Global Data Pod Weekender: A whole lotta shakin’...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/05/24

Our forecasts are in flux as a result of uncertainty around the transmission of the trade war shock and the potential for more policy surprises. That said, the data flow this week aligned with our forecast of continued resilience in April activity and May surveys, alongside a rebound in May sentiment readings from depressed levels. Our forecasts are in flux as a result of uncertainty around the transmission of the trade war shock and the potential for more policy surprises. That said, the data flow

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26:15

Global Data Pod Weekender: Short-term pain? No way

Global Data Pod ·

2025/05/16

The increased risks of recession and signs of significant disruptions in the goods market have likely played a role in getting the US to back off its draconian trade war policies, culminating this week in a substantial markdown in the tariff on China. We no longer see a US recession as likely but still see growth being weak over the rest of the year and also note downside risks if the trade war re-escalates.This podcast was recorded on May 16, 2025. This communication is provided for information

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21:09

Global Data Pod Weekender: Threat assessment

Global Data Pod ·

2025/05/09

The hard activity data continue to show resilient growth in the first four months of the year. We maintain our recession call owing to 1) front-loading that will impart a drag going forward, 2) material trade war drags that will further damp activity, and 3) sentiment that is falling sharply and risks becoming a drag on its own. Trade war news this week does not move the needle in our view. The Fed is equally balanced on rising risks to both sides of its dual mandate and unlikely to act absent a

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33:45

Global Data Pod Weekender: Transitioning

Global Data Pod ·

2025/05/02

Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the activity data continues to show resilience, an encouraging development that will help weather the coming US policy storm. Whether it is enough to support the transition to the trade war is the central question. Regardless, even absent recession, the risk of an extended period of soft growth should also be a concern. One factor underlying this risk is a lack of potential policy offsets, particularly in the US where the Fed is likely to remain on extended

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29:11

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor

Global Data Pod ·

2025/04/30

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation monitor and the impact of tariffs on inflation in the US and the rest of the world. After a broad-based upside surprise in January, core inflation has shown a similar widespread moderation. The US CPI data show limited impact from tariffs through March, but we look for core inflation to jump to a 6%ar this quarter and next. At the same time, inflationary impulses in the rest of the world appear tilted to the

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35:24

Global Data Pod Weekender: Short-term pain, long-term...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/04/25

The hard data continue to highlight strength but it increasingly looks like we are reaching peak front-loading. The survey data are falling faster and point to a material deceleration. Whether this turns to recession will depend on the degree to which the US backpedals its war on trade. Beyond any near-term outcome, the risk is that the dismantling of the global trading order will do permanent damage.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 25 April 2025. This

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243 results

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