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PODCAST

Global Data Pod

J.P. Morgan Global Research

Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.

business

All Episodes

33:23

Global Data Pod Weekender: You can’t handle the truth!

Global Data Pod ·

2025/11/07

Testing views, with continued uncertainties around the US labor market exacerbated by the government shutdown offset by better business surveys and improving activity data from Asia and Europe. Whether IEEPA tariffs are reversed may not change Trump’s mission (with numerous tools still at his disposal) but it could indicate that this Supreme Court has some limits—with a possible read-through to the Fed Governor Lisa Cook court case in January.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast

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29:45

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor:...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/11/04

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the latest global CPI reports and the implications for central banks. We also delve deeper into the topic of tariff-induced inflation in the US. The global top-down message remains one of continued sticky inflation around 3%. Along with the trimming of downside growth risks, this has unsurprisingly prompted central banks to turn less dovish. While US core inflation has risen less than expected at the outset of the trade war, it is running well above target

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44:44

Global Data Pod Edge: Africa is building back better

Global Data Pod ·

2025/11/03

Gbolahan Taiwo and Katie Marney discuss the improving outlook for African economies. Fiscal, monetary and FX reforms, rebuilt external reserves, improving terms of trade, declining inflation, and monetary easing are putting African economies on a more solid footing. Gbolahan and Katie go through takeaways for Nigeria, Angola, Ghana, Egypt, Senegal and Uganda.Speakers Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research Gbolahan Taiwo, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research This

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33:32

Global Data Pod Weekender: Views from the Upside Down

Global Data Pod ·

2025/10/31

After two weeks off, the Weekender returns with an exploration of the upside and downside risks to the growth outlook and the implications of each for inflation and central bank behavior. We also discuss the outcome of the Trump Asia tour.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 31 October 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan

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35:10

Global Data Pod Weekender: You can’t get there from here

Global Data Pod ·

2025/10/17

Debate over the growth picture continues with global expenditure data through September showing resilience but the labor market a key area of weakness. Whether wealth effects will cushion the coming purchasing power squeeze in the US is unclear. But we maintain that there is a tension in risk markets pricing both resilience and a Fed that returns rates to neutral, with inflation looking sticky absent a more material soft patch in growth. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication

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43:02

Global Data Pod Weekender: Just how symmetric are...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/10/10

A case is made that the US floor is low but the ceiling is high, while the range for the rest of the world is narrower. A counter argument is that the bullish view of risk assets poses more of an asymmetric risk distribution for the US. Fiscal policies have tilted easier this year, a theme we stressed in our year-ahead outlook, but the latest developments (France, Japan, China, US) do not move the global needle much. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 10 October

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38:06

Global Data Pod Weekender: If data falls in the woods…

Global Data Pod ·

2025/10/03

The US shutdown leaves us with limited visibility at an important juncture in the global outlook. There are reasons to believe that the factors of lift are set to fade and that the factors of drag are intensifying. These are just narratives for now, but keep the risks for a bend-but-not break global outlook skewed to the downside and the Fed in insurance easing mode.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 3 October 2025. This communication is provided for information

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32:44

Global Data Pod Weekender: Strong but shaky growth

Global Data Pod ·

2025/09/26

The global expansion is now tracking a strong 3Q outturn, led by a robust increase in the US. The contrast of this strength with a near-stall in global employment is striking. Strong wealth gains and a falling saving rate are supporting consumer spending for now. But labor income growth is softening broadly, and is set to take a sharp leg down next quarter in the US. Absent a bounce back in hiring, the expansion will be on shaky ground.This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025. This

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26:00

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Food...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/09/26

Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the latest CPI reports, the key drivers shaping the outlook, and implications for monetary policy. This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5085949-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5083938-0 for more information; please visit

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27:20

Global Data Pod Research Rap: The growth effects of...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/09/23

Abiel Reinhart joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent surge in tech-related business investment, its impact on US growth, and what it might mean for productivity gains. Tech investment accounted for about a third of US GDP growth––and much of the expansion in domestic final sales––in 1H25. While hyperscaler capex levels are expected to stay high in coming years, current growth rates are unlikely to be sustained, implying a smaller GDP contribution in 2026. We also discuss potential

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37:56

Global Data Pod Weekender: A riddle wrapped in a mystery

Global Data Pod ·

2025/09/19

Despite resilience through 3Q, we maintain that drags are building and still see recession odds at 40%. Heightened labor market risk was enough to get the Fed to cut this week and signal two more by year-end, even if not the start of a more aggressive easing cycle. Beneath the surface, 4-6 quarters of weak job growth with trend-like GDP growth raises questions about the structure of the economy while also adding to near-term vulnerabilities.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was

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47:13

Global Data Pod Weekender: And if not now, when?

Global Data Pod ·

2025/09/12

The debate builds over the resilience of the expansion, the health of the labor market, and the durability of the consumers. At the same time, questions arise over growth without jobs and the Fed’s responsibility to it.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 12 September 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All

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37:19

Global Data Pod Weekender: Weak payrolls, more Fed

Global Data Pod ·

2025/09/05

Although this week’s business surveys sent an upbeat growth signal, the message from labor market reports in the US and elsewhere dominates risk assessments and the direction central banks will travel.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 5 September 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved

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38:27

Global Data Pod Weekender: Resilience and discontent

Global Data Pod ·

2025/08/29

Despite a softening US labor market and a downshift in global industry and trade, the global economy looks resilient with the US tracking above-trend growth this quarter. With tariff and immigration drags still building, do we just delay the expected pothole or fill it over? The Fed is set to cut, but strong growth, high-and-rising inflation, and threats to independence complicate the path beyond.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 29 August 2025. This

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30:03

Global Data Pod Weekender: Additional renovations on...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/08/08

Global industry is stalling at midyear and we look for the soft patch to continue as the trade war bites and global capex growth softens. The Fed looks likely to restart its easing cycle in September. The addition of Stephen Miran to the Fed opens the door to significant reforms, some of which could threaten independence.This podcast was recorded on August 8, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures

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31:55

Global Data Pod Research Rap: The shifting nature of...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/08/08

Nora Szentivanyi and Tingting Ge discuss their latest research on China’s evolving role in global goods disinflation, the impact of higher US tariffs on China’s trade with the rest of the world, its export price competitiveness and the implications of currency movements for the inflation outlook. We also expand on the root-causes of China’s excess capacity and whether the government’s latest anti-involution measures are gaining traction. This podcast was recorded on 08 August 2025. This

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30:51

Global Data Pod Weekender: Downside risks re-emerge

Global Data Pod ·

2025/08/01

First-half resilience and robust risk markets have challenged our forecast for a sharp deceleration in 2H25 and tempered risks of recession. This week’s news on global industry and the US labor market affirms our call.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 1 August 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All

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48:41

Global Data Pod: EM capital flows discontented we remain

Global Data Pod ·

2025/07/29

Jahangir Aziz and Katie Marney discuss sluggish EM capital flows against a backdrop of trade uncertainty, risks to global growth, elevated treasury yields, and a weaker dollar. EM capital flows have been languishing and shifting in composition since about 2015. Hopes that a weaker US dollar would break EM capital flows out its malaise have not been fulfilled. We explore our finding that dollar’s influence as a push factor for EM investment flows has been waning, while US Treasury yields matter more

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40:23

Global Data Pod Weekender: Fake it till you make it

Global Data Pod ·

2025/07/25

As trade (hand-shake) deals get made, it is looking increasingly likely that the effective tariff rate is going to settle very close to the 22% rate initially announced on April 2. And yet, the global expansion looks resilient through 1H25. Is the shock just not that big? Is there more fundamental support for growth? Are businesses willing to smooth the shock over time? Are easy financial conditions short-circuiting the shock? Or is it just too soon, with the past flattered by front-loading and a

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34:48

Global Data Pod Weekender: Inflation, politics, and...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/07/18

The latest data keep the inflation and growth backdrop challenging for central banks. Politics are an added wrinkle for the Fed.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 18 July 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed

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237 results

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