PODCAST

Economy Watch

Interest.co.nz / Podcasts NZ, David Chaston, Gareth Vaughan, interest.co.nz

We follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.

business investing

All Episodes

00:06:00

Central banks stand back on looming trade chaos

Economy Watch ·

2025/03/19

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news it’s a big day of data locally with our Q4-2024 GDP result out later this morning, preceded by the Fonterra half year result. Either may have market-moving implications.But a few minutes ago, the US Fed released its latest monetary policy review and projections, the dot plot

00:05:32

Bigger bumps in the road

Economy Watch ·

2025/03/18

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there are plenty of bumps in the economic road to note today.But first up today, there was another full dairy auction overnight, one that analysts had been nervous about and the derivatives market saw downside risks (on the uncertainties of how dairy product distortions

00:06:44

Eyes on China & American economic policymakers

Economy Watch ·

2025/03/17

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US Federal Reserve is meeting to review its monetary policy settings and uncertainty levels are high and rising, both on the growth and inflation fronts.But first, as we noted yesterday, China's State Council has launched 'a special action plan' to boost domestic

00:05:25

US & China weaknesses self-inflicted

Economy Watch ·

2025/03/16

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news China's inability to get out of its rut, and the fast-fading of the American exuberance are the dominating global economic scene-setters.And this week it will be all about by the US Fed and its Thursday monetary policy review. They face the prospects of higher inflation in the

00:05:10

Equities drop on strong risk-aversion market moves

Economy Watch ·

2025/03/13

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the gold price is approaching US$3000/oz again after hitting a new record high earlier today. The equity markets are falling again. Benchmark bond yields are in risk-aversion mode but corporate debt yields are rising.But first, US initial jobless claims were little-changed last

00:05:27

Inflation holds but tariff costs yet to hit

Economy Watch ·

2025/03/12

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news retaliation on retaliation seems to be the order of the day in the US tariff policy - exactly has observers had expected. The whole thing is a no-win battle and a repeat of a history lesson that failed the first time - one it should be noted that resulted in the 1929

00:06:15

The Americans & Russians disrupt trade

Economy Watch ·

2025/03/11

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US is doubling its tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium to 50% in a tantrum over Canadians asserting their independence. Wall Street reacted badly, dropping another -1% and taking the losses to -10% over the past four week, a drop in the market capitalisation of the

00:05:11

Wall Street votes, and it isn't for Trump

Economy Watch ·

2025/03/10

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Wall Street has taken sudden fright on the growing realisation of what Trump has wrought for them. It's risk-off in a big way with equities falling sharply and bond yields retreating. Normally on a risk-off phase the USD rises, but this time it's actually softer. Putin's

00:08:01

The policy landscape is in ferment

Economy Watch ·

2025/03/09

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we start the week with current data that is almost certainly not indicative of what's to come. The policy landscape is in ferment.First in the week ahead however, locally it will be all about migration, retail sales, and a look a second look at 2025 inflation levels. In

00:06:01

The US goes into reverse

Economy Watch ·

2025/03/06

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US policy making has now become so chaotic, businesses are holding off making decisions. That can only have negative consequences.Firstly, US jobless claims rose modestly last week from the week before but this was less than seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now

00:04:49

Making a messy situation messier

Economy Watch ·

2025/03/04

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the tariff war mess is getting messier.First up, the overnight dairy auction came in a bit better than the futures market suggested it might. This event offered lower volumes at the back end of the current dairy season, and prices eased just -0.5% in USD terms from the last

00:06:58

Chaos has consequences

Economy Watch ·

2025/03/03

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news chaos has consequences, but they seem to be coming faster than many thought. The giant US economy is resilient, but not immune to the consequences of misguided policy decisions.Regular readers will know we regularly track the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow signals. Today that has

00:06:57

Gears crunched in downshift global direction

Economy Watch ·

2025/03/02

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the global economy seems to be settling back into a low growth phase on the back of the sharp rise in policy uncertainty in the US.But first, in the week ahead we will get our December trade balance update and data on building permits for January. And the first of the quarterly

00:05:16

US tariffs bring higher prices, slower growth

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/27

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news trade and tariffs are in the headlines, but their impact of higher inflation and slower economic activity are just starting to be seen.US initial jobless claims rose sharply last week in seasonally adjusted terms, the largest rise in five month. In actual terms they were

00:04:45

More debt to solve China's challenges

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/26

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of more data dragging in the US, and more debt plans in China.First up, American mortgage applications fell again last week, and this is despite their benchmark 30 year mortgage interest rate falling further below the 7% level. Lower home loan rates now are not motivating

00:05:47

Risk appetite in sharp reversal

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/25

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that is not good. Markets are suddenly gripped by extreme fears of where the world's largest economy is heading.But first up today we can report that the overnight dairy Pulse auction has seen milk powder prices fall. The big fall expected for WMP didn't happen but it was a

00:03:55

US fades both at home and abroad

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/24

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the fading of confidence in the US is spreading, but trailing the international reputation demise.First up today, the widely-watched Chicago Fed's National Activity Index for the US fell in January from an upwardly revised result for December, suggesting American economic

00:07:00

Risk aversion jumps on Trump missteps

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/23

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that 100 days of mayhem has not only killed the global leadership position of the US, Americans themselves (consumers and business) are reacting by turning sharply defensive.The US dollar is under pressure, Wall Street is down sharply, and benchmark bond yields are dropping

00:06:00

Hints of a stagflation future noticed by financial...

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/20

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that while Trump is playing Putin's puppet, his lieutenants are setting the stage for a new global bout of stagflation - higher tariff-induced costs for little or no economic expansion. Wall Street is starting to price in what is increasingly likely to lie ahead. The USD

00:05:14

American instability takes another turn

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/19

foreign investors, both friends an foes, are quitting their exposure to the new Russified US.But first up, the Redbook tracking of American retail sales shows they were up +6.3% last week from the same week a year go. This is a heady gain outside the seasonal shopping windows. Buyers may be trying to insulate themselves ahead of the inflation that will flow from impending tariffs. Last week's gain was twice what it was a year ago, and also higher than the same week two years ago. Some of this

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