PODCAST

Economy Watch

Interest.co.nz / Podcasts NZ, David Chaston, Gareth Vaughan, interest.co.nz

We follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.

business investing

All Episodes

00:05:14

American instability takes another turn

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/19

foreign investors, both friends an foes, are quitting their exposure to the new Russified US.But first up, the Redbook tracking of American retail sales shows they were up +6.3% last week from the same week a year go. This is a heady gain outside the seasonal shopping windows. Buyers may be trying to insulate themselves ahead of the inflation that will flow from impending tariffs. Last week's gain was twice what it was a year ago, and also higher than the same week two years ago. Some of this

00:37:58

David Mahon: China, a country 'full of DeepSeeks,'...

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/19

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon visiting India before China could be seen as an insult in China, Beijing-based New Zealander David Mahon says. But he says China's recently announced strategic partnership with the Cook Islands, through which NZ was kept in the dark, shouldn't be viewed as insult to, or provocation of, NZ.Mahon, who is Managing Director of Mahon China Investment Management and has lived in China since 1984, spoke to interest.co.nz in a new episode of the Of Interest podcast.Luxon,

00:04:34

Back on inflation alert

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/18

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news inflation is still not beat and the new tariff wars are messing with when that might happen.First up today, there was another dairy auction, and this one came in weaker than the derivatives markets had anticipated. Prices slipped overall by -0.6% in USD terms and by -1.5% in

00:04:07

What will the RBA do?

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/17

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news today will be dominated by the RBA rate review, especially as US financial markets are on holiday (Presidents Day).Meanwhile, Canadian housing starts rose in January from December and came in +3.7% higher than year ago levels. Montreal and Vancouver demand drove the

00:05:18

China borrows like there's no tomorrow

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/16

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the messy international outlook continues but so far the changes are more in prospect than real.First however, this will be a big week of data and policy releases. Not only will Australia review its policy rate tomorrow (a -25 bps cut is anticipated taking their cash rate

00:04:38

Waiting for US tariffs

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/13

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news it is expected that the US will announce reciprocal tariffs today, although the phase-in time might be months. To be revealed. This will be seen as the formal start of a global trade war. New Zealand won't be any focus but it won't be immune. The tariffs will be on goods. But

00:05:48

The US gets its expected inflation twist

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/12

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the instability feared over the new US tariff approach is hitting their economy.First up today, we need to note that US headline CPI inflation rose in January to 3.0% when no change from the December 2.9% was anticipated. Core inflation was expected to fall to 3.1% from

00:05:34

Powell in no hurry to cut rates, defying Trump

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/11

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the USD is wavering (down -1.7%) as policy missteps especially on the impact of the trade war hostilities. Benchmark interest rates are rising as risk premiums rise. Estimates for US growth are getting downgraded, while estimates for US inflation are being raised. These

00:04:34

It is clearer that tariffs will drive a new global...

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/10

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of more signaled tariffs on imports into the US, specifically on metals. A new inflation surge seems inevitable, as does less trade and low growth - in other words we need to prepare for a new bout of stagflation.But first, American consumer inflation expectations for the year

00:10:00

US chaos, global data softness, not helping

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/09

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news it doesn't look like our trading partners are going to be that helpful getting us out of recession.This week we will be watching for the Selected Prices inflation indications on Friday. And financial markets will be doing their final jostling for the following week's set of

00:05:24

Economic shine dulls

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/06

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the American rich get insulated from legal scrutiny, while the US economic data loses its shine.First in the US, their services sector expanded slower in January than expected, according to the widely-watch ISM survey. It is still a good expansion, just with lower new order

00:05:54

Retaliatory counterpunches come in many forms

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/04

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news it remains unclear what happens next after the chaotic round of US tariffs on their closest trade partners, and then their unexpected suspension.But first up this morning, we can report a strong dairy auction result, with prices up +3.7% in USD terms and up +4.0% in NZD

00:06:02

No-one likes Trump's awful tariff deal, even in the...

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/03

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Trump's tariffs are bringing the same level of global uncertainty back as we had from China's pandemic. This time however, officials in charge lack the credibility or the instinct to change policy for the common good, or the courage to withstand the nutters. In fact, the

00:07:18

Sharp policy changes without thinking things through

Economy Watch ·

2025/02/02

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news about the start of a tariff trade war, a reprise of a 1930s effort, also started by the US, and one that ended badly for everyone.The week ahead was supposed to be basically about jobs, both here and in the US with our HLFS data for December out on Thursday, and the US non-farm

00:04:55

Consumer resilience powers the 2024 US growth

Economy Watch ·

2025/01/30

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of some all-time high benchmarks that are impressive.The first estimate of Q4-2024 GDP was out earlier today and it came in at a +2.3% growth rate, less than the +3.1% in Q3. It was also lower than most market analysts had anticipated. Consumption came in at the 3% level, the

00:05:31

Fed set to end rate cutting cycle

Economy Watch ·

2025/01/29

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets are all quiet ahead of the US Fed monetary policy review and results will be announced at 8am NZT. Markets do not expect any rate change, but given the aggressive start to the Trump Administration, markets will be watching for any Fed reaction. It seems unlikely to

00:06:05

Markets start to reassess risk in the face of policy...

Economy Watch ·

2025/01/28

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US equity markets have made a comeback from yesterday's tech rout. But it isn't a full comeback yet in the tech space. In addition, general economic sentiment is more sober about the 2025 prospects.But first, last week's US retail sales were up +4.9% from the same week a

00:04:18

China loses steam ahead of holidays; Wall Street...

Economy Watch ·

2025/01/27

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Wall Street is reassessing its valuation basics, and there is a general pullback across the board. It started with questions about an AI valuation bubble, but is extending to others now. "Risk-off" is the mood today.But first, yesterday's reporting of China's official PMIs for

00:06:54

China holiday & US Fed decision dominate global...

Economy Watch ·

2025/01/26

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that we will be watching for China holiday demand signals, and watching how the US Fed handles new sharp political interference.Also, this week will bring a slew of big economic announcements in many places, but not China which is starting its Lunar New Year week-long holiday

00:05:20

Forced distortions a new economic threat

Economy Watch ·

2025/01/23

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are living in a new world of imposed distortions. Ethical politics or business dealing is out the window. Trust is being replaced by force. It is hard to see how this will end well. After all, business relies on trust, honesty and integrity. Without it, why would you make a

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