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PODCAST

More or Less

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life

science mathematics

All Episodes

8:58

Kenya’s Election Rounding Error

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2022/08/27

When the official figures were announced in Kenya’s presidential election, it looked like the total percentage share of the vote for each candidate came to more than 100%. As this should not be possible, many wondered if up to 142,000 votes might be miscounted. We explore what turns out to be a simple mathematical misunderstanding of the numbers.

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9:41

The numbers behind “natural” birth control

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2022/08/20

Videos on TikTok have been claiming that so-called “natural” birth control methods can be 99% effective. We examine what we really know, and how we know it.

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8:58

Is opinion polling broken?

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2022/08/13

The opinion polling industry’s reputation has taken a battering in recent years, as high profile slip-ups in the US presidential election exposed frailties. So should we write them off? Not according to Economist data journalist G Elliot Morris, who’s written a book called Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them.Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Jon Bithrey Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: Rod Farquhar

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8:58

Debunking the Liverpool FC Conspiracy Theory

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2022/08/06

Ahead of the opening of the new season of the English Premier League, baseless rumours and dodgy statistics circulating online have implied that Liverpool FC use asthma medication to enhance their players’ performance. Ben Carter speaks to sports scientist Professor John Dickinson to examine the science that disproves these rumour, and tracks down its original source with the help of Mike Wendling from the World Service's Trending programme.Presenter: Ben Carter Producer: Richard Vadon

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8:58

How our world measures up

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2022/07/30

Why do we measure the world around us in the way we do? There is a rich history to be explored - from measuring the depth of the Nile in Ancient Egypt to the central role the French played in developing the metric system and the ultra-precise measurement systems we use today. Presenter Tim Harford is joined by journalist and author James Vincent to discuss the political, social and technological factors that have influenced how we size up our world.

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10:06

Does the World Athletics Championships have a false...

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2022/07/23

US athlete Devon Allen has made global headlines this week after being disqualified from the 110m hurdles final at the World Athletics Championship in Eugene, Oregon. He was judged to have left the starting blocks a thousandth of a second too early. On More or Less we crunch the numbers behind false starts in athletics, asking how quick is too quick when it comes to reacting to a starting gun and whether something else might have gone wrong with the measurement system.

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10:01

Is Uganda about to become a middle income country?

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2022/07/16

In his State of the Nation address in early June 2022, Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni said that Uganda was on the cusp of becoming a middle income country. That’s been contradicted by World Bank figures. In response to a question from a More or Less fan in Uganda, Tim Harford looks at how a country’s income status is calculated and what relevance it has. Featuring Rachel Sebudde, Senior Economist at the World Bank.

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10:10

Does it take 10,000 litres of water to make a pair of...

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2022/07/09

Various claims have been made about how much water is used in the production of a pair of jeans, that cornerstone of casual clothing. With growing worries over the environmental impact of denim production, More or Less decided to investigate - with the help of journalist and researcher Elizabeth L. Cline who has written extensively on sustainability and the fashion industry.

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9:37

How many American women will have an abortion in...

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2022/07/02

Earlier this month, the US Supreme Court overturned its 1973 ruling on Roe vs Wade - the case which guaranteed a constitutional right to a legal abortion across the US, sparking heated protests and debates across the country.But how many American women will have an abortion in their lifetime? One statistic circulating online puts it at as high as one in three. Reporter Charlotte McDonald has been looking into the figures and has uncovered some surprising statistics.

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29:16

Covid climb, childcare costs and why can’t the French...

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2022/06/29

Covid cases are rising once again – how accurately are official figures picking up the new wave and how worried we should be? We discuss inflationary spirals and how much wage and pension increases contribute to inflation. Also how many parents actually struggle with childcare costs? Can long waits at A&E be put down to the pandemic and why the French count differently to the British.

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11:00

Ed Sheeran and the mathematics of musical coincidences

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2022/06/25

After beating a plagiarism claim in court, musician Ed Sheeran said that musical coincidences were inevitable with only 12 notes to choose from… but what do the numbers say? Mathematician and concert pianist Eugenia Cheng takes us through the mathematics of music and explains how the power of exponentials mean that just a handful of notes can open up a seemingly endless world of musical variety. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Programme Coordinator: Janet Staples Sound Engineer:

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28:37

Rail strikes, tyre pollution and sex statistics

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2022/06/22

Do rail workers really earn £13,000 a year more than nurses? As rail strikes severely hit services we look at some of the claims being made around pay – and explain how you can measure average pay in different ways.Plus we investigate claims that Chancellor Rishi Sunak wasted £11bn by paying too much interest on Britain’s national debt.Is pollution from tyres really 2000 times worse than pollution from exhausts?And we look at sex and statistics in America.Produced in partnership with the Open

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8:58

How often do people have sex?

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2022/06/18

Magazine articles and advice columns are commonly littered with spurious statistics about how much sex we’re having. So how much do we really know – and what are the difficulties of collecting information about such an intimate part of our lives? Doctor Marina Adshade from the Vancouver School of Economics, who specialises in the economics of sex and love, answers questions posed by a curious More or Less listener in Japan.

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28:38

Maternity litigation, stars, bees and windowless planes

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2022/06/15

The former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt says that the cost of maternity litigation claims in England is now more than the cost of salaries for maternity nurses and doctors. We crunch the numbers and ask how worried parents and taxpayers should be. Also are there more bees in the world than stars in the galaxy? And would planes be much lighter if they didn’t bother with windows? Maths Professor Hannah Fry talks to us about her experience of cancer and the choices she and others have faced after a

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10:16

Hannah Fry: Understanding the numbers of cancer

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2022/06/11

British mathematics professor and broadcaster Hannah Fry has spent many years trying to explain the world through numbers. But when she was diagnosed with cervical cancer she embarked on a new mission – to discover whether the medical world, and we as individuals, make the right choices around treatment. Are patients always given the facts – and the time - they need to make rational decisions? And could we be at risk of unnecessary overtreatment?

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28:51

Employment puzzle, pyramids and triplets

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2022/06/08

The UK has a low unemployment rate, and a large number of people who are not working right now – we look at how both of these are true with the help of Chris Giles from the FT and Louise Murphy from the Resolution Foundation.Have pyramids really moved 4km south since they were built?For years, the media has been claiming that the odds of having identical triplets are one in 200 million – we are very suspicious. And we look at apparently concerning reports about women's life expectancy in the poorest

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8:53

Are girls starting puberty earlier?

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2022/06/04

In the 1980s, Dr Marcia Herman-Giddens was one of the first people to notice that girls were starting puberty earlier than expected. We talk to Dr Marcia Herman-Giddens and Dr Louise Greenspan about what we know now about whether the age of girls’ puberty is falling. (Mother and daughter in the supermarket choosing sanitary items. Getty Images)

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28:59

Jubilee costs, fuel poverty and imperial measures

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2022/06/01

Is the government really spending a billion pounds on the Jubilee, as some have claimed? We investigate some of the facts and figures around this week’s commemorations. We also ask why energy bills are becoming so high in the UK when we actually have plenty of gas, and we unpack the mystery of measuring fuel poverty. Plus after the Texas school shooting we investigate the statistics around gun deaths in the US.And finally we hear about the joys and perplexities of imperial measures with Hannah Fry

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8:58

Noisy Decisions

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2022/05/28

Nobel memorial prize winner Daniel Kahneman is one of the world’s most famous psychologists, known particularly for his work identifying the role of cognitive bias in everyday decision making. In this edition of More or Less he talks to Tim Harford about his latest book, Noise - A Flaw in Human Judgement, in which he outlines how a multitude of often irrelevant factors influence important decisions, whether in job interviews, the courtroom or workplaces generally - and what we can do about it.

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29:14

Germany’s excess deaths, Eurovision and teacher...

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2022/05/25

Some recent, and surprising, estimates from the World Health Organisation suggested that the UK fared better than Germany in the pandemic. But did they get it right?At Eurovision this year an algorithm was apparently used to replace whole countries’ votes - was it responsible for the UK’s second-place finish?The global economy has been putting the squeeze on many of us this year. Various factors have caused food, fuel and energy prices to rocket and many households are starting to feel the pinch. We

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