PODCAST

Economy Watch

Interest.co.nz / Podcasts NZ, David Chaston, Gareth Vaughan, interest.co.nz

We follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.

business investing

All Episodes

00:04:30

Banking stress rises in China and the EU

Economy Watch ·

2024/11/20

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news both China and the EU seem to be facing banking & debt pressures, different of course, but each challenging in its own way.But first in the US, mortgage applications edged slightly higher last week from the week before to be -30% lower that at the end of September and about the

00:05:30

Dairy prices rise as China's milk production falls

Economy Watch ·

2024/11/19

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news dairy prices are still rising.We got an increase in dairy prices at the overnight GlobalDairyTrade auction from the prior event, but it was a small pullback from prices at last week's Pulse event. Overall prices were up +1.9% in USD terms, up +3.6% in NZD terms, so a good

00:03:58

Gold, oil, benchmark bond interest rates and bitcoin...

Economy Watch ·

2024/11/18

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news that long term benchmark bond interest rates are still rising, even if the rising trend is variable.It is a quiet economic data day in the US, with a housing building confidence index the only release of note. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose in November to it

00:07:11

Rate cut prospects fading?

Economy Watch ·

2024/11/17

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the focus is turning to Q1-2025 now and the twists & turns the world's largest economy will deliver. It is probably no coincidence that post-election, Warren Buffett is selling.But first, in the week ahead we will get data on our producer price inflation, and an update on our

00:04:21

Oil demand falls, supply rising

Economy Watch ·

2024/11/14

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the slowing Chinese economy is keeping the oil price low, and it might stay that way because supply is rising, and quite quickly.But first, although there were no surprises in US initial jobless claim levels, they did rise last week to 229,000 on seasonal factors so there are now

00:04:18

US inflation progress stalls in October

Economy Watch ·

2024/11/13

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news markets are starting to price in the return of US inflation in 2025, and perhaps the end of US Fed rate cuts (although there could still be a last hurrah in December).In the US, their CPI inflation rate rose to 2.6% in October from 2.4% in September. This is the expected rise but

00:05:37

Markets hesitate with US inflation return feared

Economy Watch ·

2024/11/12

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news that while we were all distracted by the 'culture-war' US election, in fact the world's economy was expanding well, except perhaps in China (but even they are still expanding, just not like the they need).In the US Redbook retail index rose +4.8% last week from the same week a

00:03:38

China stimulus fizzes

Economy Watch ·

2024/11/11

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news that there was little economic data released overnight, so this report will be quite thin - and short.First up today we should note that China's October vehicle sales surged by +7% from a year ago to just over 3 million units in in the month. This contrasted with the -1.7% drop on

00:06:24

China's turnaround not in evidence yet

Economy Watch ·

2024/11/10

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news China's battle with deflationary pressures shows no sign of being won.But first, in the week ahead locally, we will get the REINZ result for October some time this week. And September migration data on Wednesday. Internationally, all eyes will be on American consumer and producer

00:05:24

Trump's win may have killed off more rate cuts

Economy Watch ·

2024/11/07

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news with a special eye on unpredictable American policy instability. The Trump win unhinges many things, including the path for central bank rate cuts. The ones announced today may be the last until after the direction of US fiscal policy is revealed for certain.In the shadow of the

00:04:36

The Red Center delivers a morally bankrupt America

Economy Watch ·

2024/11/06

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news it was a night of celebration in the US, especially for billionaires, and those pushing extreme social and religious views. The decisive second coming of a Trump Administration will free up new divisive narratives that will spill over globally. It is a great time to be a crony

00:04:38

Investors turn 'risk-on' as good data flows everywhere

Economy Watch ·

2024/11/05

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news that is surprisingly positive today.Even though there are likely large influences on New Zealand from events halfway around the world, there are some locally too. Later this morning the Q3-2024 labour market report will be released. And we will have full coverage. But before

00:04:42

Factories globally subdued for a fourth straight month

Economy Watch ·

2024/11/04

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news financial market traders are bracing for volatility over the US election-counting period.But elsewhere, global manufacturing remains subdued as new order intakes contract for a fourth successive month. The global factory PMI is dominated by large countries, especially the US and

00:06:16

The news other than the US election

Economy Watch ·

2024/11/03

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news that, while it may be a pivotal week regarding the US election, we are staying away from that event. There are plenty of other places to get whatever slant suits you.In the coming week, the highlight will be Friday morning's US Fed rate decision. Analysts have pencilled in a -25

00:05:23

The US expansion pushes on, carrying the world's...

Economy Watch ·

2024/10/31

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the American economy continues its remarkable run, although corporate earnings guidance is showing some hesitation.US jobless claims last week came in at +200,000, a decrease and more than expected. Interestingly, this is the same level it was a year ago for the same week. There

00:04:13

US economy powers ahead led by consumer confidence

Economy Watch ·

2024/10/30

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news consumers may be anxious about their political future, but they are spending like they are in healthy financial shape.In the US, their economy expanded an annualised +2.8% in Q3-2024, below the 3% in the previous quarter and forecasts of 3%. Holding it back was essentially no

00:04:59

China lines up massive fiscal bazooka

Economy Watch ·

2024/10/29

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the fiscal bazooka is reportedly in place in China. And it is bigger than expected.But first, US retail sales remain strong. The Redbook index rose +5.6% last week, its biggest gain since early September, and better than the +5.3% in the same week last year.The number of job

00:06:41

Soft economic data everywhere but company results...

Economy Watch ·

2024/10/28

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news China is having trouble getting its economic mojo back. In fact most signals are suggesting they are slipping further behind.But first, this coming week is a very busy one in the US. Not only will they release key labour market data (JOLTS, non-farm payrolls) and PMI data (ISM),

00:05:52

Game lost, prepare to adapt

Economy Watch ·

2024/10/24

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news we need to get ready for a +3o future and start adapting for it.But first, initial jobless claims in the US came in at just 203,000 last week, much lower than expected. There are now 1.635 mln on these benefits. We are about a week away from getting the US non-farm payrolls report

00:04:29

Central bank rates fall, but financial market rates rise

Economy Watch ·

2024/10/23

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news that while officials cut policy interest rates, markets are bidding up benchmark bond rates.But first, there was another aggressive fall in the level of American mortgage applications last week, down almost -7% from the prior week, and extending the -17% plunge from that earlier

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Economy Watch

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