PODCAST

Economy Watch

Interest.co.nz / Podcasts NZ, David Chaston, Gareth Vaughan, interest.co.nz

We follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.

business investing

All Episodes

00:05:23

Commodity prices sag and takes the NZD with it

Economy Watch ·

2024/07/22

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news it’s been a toughish night for commodity currencies as markets mark down these prospects. That has been true for both hard and soft commodities, although it is more of a sag than a significant fall.In the US, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index rose again, although this time

00:06:02

Moderate global prosperity unaffected by war,...

Economy Watch ·

2024/07/21

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the economies of most major powers are in good shape and their companies are prospering.But for those who follow such things, we should note that President Biden has decided not to run in the Presidential election in November, stepping aside. The race for the Democratic nomination

00:04:25

Last-mile gains in inflation war hard to achieve

Economy Watch ·

2024/07/18

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news policymakers are still struggling with the last-mile gains in their war on inflation.But first, the number of Americans making initial jobless claims rose last week and by slightly more than expected. That takes them back to early June levels and while not high, it does arrest the

00:41:14

Will Carnachan of Aotea Asset Management unpacks the...

Economy Watch ·

2024/07/18

New Zealand's nascent private credit industry could account for up to 5% of business lending to operating companies over time, suggests Aotea Asset Management (AAM) executive director Will Carnachan.AAM, which launched three years ago, is a corporate debt fund manager organising wholesale investorsto contribute to direct secured loans to businesses. Private credit, a form of shadow banking, has made headlines in the US, Europe and Australia over the past couple of years. The International Monetary

00:04:20

The US 'stars' align for the Fed

Economy Watch ·

2024/07/17

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news American data is improving in a steady way without deficit or labour market stresses, so conditions seem right for monetary policy 'normalisation' to be completed.First, American mortgage applications rose an unusual +3.9% last week from a week ago to be -14% lower than the same

00:05:01

The global economy in a "sticky spot"

Economy Watch ·

2024/07/16

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the IMF seems the global economy in a "sticky spot".But first up today we can report that the overnight dairy auction defied recent trends and the futures market. Instead of another retreat, in fact it held, virtually unchanged (+0.4). But the two key powders did decline, just

00:04:59

China stumbles again

Economy Watch ·

2024/07/15

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news of the unavoidable reporting of a Chinese economic stumble.But first up today, we should note that Fed boss Powell was speaking and said the three American inflation readings in the June quarter do "add somewhat to confidence" that the pace of price increases is returning to the Fed's

00:06:49

Looking at the data

Economy Watch ·

2024/07/14

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news other than the crazy American political campaign which just seems to feed conspiracy narratives. We will ignore that and just concentrate on the data.This coming week, all eyes will be on the New Zealand CPI rate for Q2-2024 which will be released on Wednesday. Preview here. Japan,

00:29:42

Nick Tuffley: Why did ASB and RBNZ change their mind...

Economy Watch ·

2024/07/13

The Reserve Bank surprised the market on Wednesday by dropping hints it was open to cutting rates sooner than planned, due to signs the economy was getting too weak.While the tone shift was unexpected, the central bank was reacting to the same data which had caused ASB’s economics team to change their own interest rate forecast the week prior.Nick Tuffley, the retail bank’s chief economist, said economic data was sending very different signals in July than it had been prior to the RBNZ’s meeting in

00:35:03

Stephen Jacobi: The US is a riskier trade partner...

Economy Watch ·

2024/07/12

New Zealand exporters to the United States might be at greater risk of being disrupted than those exporting to China, according to one trade expert.Despite talk about the need to diversify away from China due to geopolitical differences, it may be the United States that hits Kiwi businesses with tariffs intended to shut them out.Stephen Jacobi, the executive director of the NZ International Business Forum, said a second Trump presidency was a “sword of Damocles hanging over the global

00:05:37

Inflation's pressure eases globally

Economy Watch ·

2024/07/11

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news inflation's pressures seem to be cooling in all the world's major economies.But first, in seasonally-adjusted terms, the number of people claiming American unemployment benefits fell last week by -17,000 from the prior week and a 5-week low, and below market expectations of

00:04:36

New trade distortions spread

Economy Watch ·

2024/07/10

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news global trade distortions seem to be growing.But first, after three weeks of gains (some quite minor though), last week US mortgage application levels fell again, and are now down -13% lower than the same weak week a year ago. The push back up of benchmark mortgage rates - above

00:06:19

US economy no longer overheated says Fed

Economy Watch ·

2024/07/09

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the US Fed is setting the scene for rate cuts down the track. When remains uncertain but financial markets have priced one in fully by November. The next big piece of relevant US data is Friday's CPI release.But first up today, even though futures markets indicated WMP would

00:03:56

A broad easing of some key commodity prices

Economy Watch ·

2024/07/08

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news of little global fallout from the weekend election results.First up today, we should note that American consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead slipped for a second consecutive month to now be +3%. That is 'progress' from 3.2% in May. The decline was broad-based over

00:07:25

Three elections, three rejections of the hard-line,...

Economy Watch ·

2024/07/07

that in the three elections held over the weekend, 'democracy' seems to be signaling a rejection of the hard-line and hard-right.But first in the week ahead the main event will be Wednesday's RBNZ OCR review. But there will be other important global data released as well, including the American CPI and PPI results for June. China will release its versions of inflation monitoring as well, and the data on new yuan loans. India will release its June CPI data too, plus industrial production data for

00:04:39

The hits to global trade keep coming

Economy Watch ·

2024/07/04

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news global container freight rates are rising to ridiculous levels now, just another element that is stifling world trade.But first up, we should note that it is a public holiday in the US; Independence Day. And it is likely that many will take tomorrow off as well to make a four-day

00:05:31

World's major economies holding up well

Economy Watch ·

2024/07/03

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news that while the world's politics is getting messier and more partisan, the world's big economies are basically doing ok.First up today, the US Fed released the minutes of its June 13 (NZT) meeting and those show it is in no hurry to cut its policy rate. But they do seem to be on

00:04:43

Dairy prices drop most in almost a year

Economy Watch ·

2024/07/02

Dairy prices nosedive. US data quite positive. China housing woes deepen. Inflation low in South Korea & EU. RBA minutes leave rate hike on table.

00:04:24

More tax cuts flow to Australian workers

Economy Watch ·

2024/07/01

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the final round of Australian tax cuts have come into effect.But first, the updated factory PMIs for the giant US economy have brought another diverging set. The S&P Global/Markit one, the internationally-benchmarked version, reported a rise based on a new order expansion to

00:06:18

Economic prospects hesitate, suggest a shift lower

Economy Watch ·

2024/06/30

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news July starts on shaky ground everywhere although the ground is firmer in the US than China.As this is the first week of July, it will be heavy with PMI survey results everywhere (except New Zealand). But the most important release this week will be the American labour market report

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Economy Watch

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