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NAB Morning Call

Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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All Episodes

17:06

RBNZ ready to cut. US tech stocks step back.

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/08/19

Wednesday 20th August July 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABNAB’s Ray Attrill says the RBNZ is expected to cut rates today, even as an upswing inflation is expected in their revised forecasts. One central bank that might not cut at all for the remainder of the year is the Bank of England, with fresh CPI data out later expected to support that case. US equities took a hit, driven by tech stocks. NVIIDA lost ground, in part because their

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14:45

Trump tries for a trilateral

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/08/18

Tuesday 19th August July 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABHaving met with Zelensky and Putin separately, President Trump is now aiming for a three-way meeting to try and reach peace in Eastern Europe. The odds are still quite low, though, because it is unlikely Ukraine and Europe will want to surrender territory as part of the process. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says market moves have been somewhat constrained, as we wait for the start of

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15:13

US spends, China stumbles. Consumers worry

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/08/17

Monday18th August July 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABUS retail sales remain resilient, but the same can’t be said for China. But the worry from Friday in the US is that inflation expectations are ticking higher.Meanwhile Japan’s GDP was firmer than anticipated, supporting the case for a BoJ hike, but when? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril is back with Phil to talk through the end of the week data, the repercussion s of the Trump Putin meeting and

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26:05

Weekend Edition: Japan works through its unwritten...

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/08/15

Friday 15th August 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The Japanese economy woke from years of stagnation to an inflationary environment that gave businesses the opportunity to raise prices and for workers to demand more money. It provided a growth opportunity that had been missing from the economy, now reflected in the growth in the value of equities and a rising number of M&As.You’d be

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18:59

Tariff effects? US producer prices, UK trade and...

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/08/14

Friday 15th August July 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABNAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil on this morning’s podcast. Phil suggests there are three signs that tariffs are having an impact. First, producer prices were up more sharply than expected in the US. Second, the UK trade deficit fell sharply. And European industrial production fell too.They also look ahead to Japan’s GDP, retail sales for the US and China, pricing data from New

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17:13

Equities rise, bond yields falling. Bessent calls for...

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/08/13

Thuersday 14th August July 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABEquities are rising, and not just in the US. In fact, the MSCI World Equities Index hit a record high overnight. Butbonds are the story today, says NAB’ s Gavin Friend, with 10year Treasury yields down 5 basis points. Markets have got a cut from the Fed fully priced in for September, but Scott Bessent said in an interview he’d like to see a 50bp cut at the next meeting. His boss,

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14:35

Swallowing the cost of tariffs

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/08/12

Wednesday 13th August July 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABMarkets have looked at the latest inflation data from the US, assumed companies are largely swallowing the cost of import tariffs, which removes the excuse for the Fed to hold off cutting rates in September. NAB’s Ken Crompton says markets are close to fully pricing a cut. The US dollar is weaker from the news but continued to fall as resident Trump once again criticised Jerome

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16:52

Tariffing in, taxing out

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/08/11

Tuesday 12th August July 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABThere’s been very little market movement despite some surprising news. First, President Trump announced a 15% tariff on exports from NVIDIA and AMD for AI chips headed to China. NAB’s Sally Auld says it’s a surprising move that a restriction supposedly on national security grounds has been foregone in exchange for a government revenue stream. Secondly, the 90-day truce on China’s

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16:04

Trump’s man for the Fed

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/08/10

Monday 11th August July 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABThis will be a very significant week and NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through it. For a start, we’ll be getting US inflation data tomorrow, to help answer the question around the impact of tariffs. One man who doesn’t believe it’s an issue is Stephen Miran, President Trump’s new man for the FOMC, but will he be in place to exert his influence at the next meeting? There’s also

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24:02

Weekend Edition: A Bold Take On Big Business

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/08/08

Friday 8th August 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Cath Carver is NAB’s Head of Corporate and Institutional Banking. She’s been in the role for a year but is close to clocking up ten years with the bank, with a long track record in finance and banking before that. Towards the end of this podcast Phil asks her if there’s anything she would have done differently if, years back she knew what she

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16:48

Tariffs kick in & BoE’s Close Call

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/08/07

Friday8th August July 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABAs of yesterday, US imports were hit with an average 15% tariff. Time will tell who is feeling the hurt the most, but on today’s podcast we hear about the impact on the auto industry, and German industrial production. China meanwhile saw exports rise again. On today’s podcast, as well as talking tariffs, NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to discuss the very close call on cuts from the

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17:46

Equites up as Apple brings it home

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/08/06

Thursday 7th August July 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABUS equities are up at the close. Helped by an announcement that Apple will invest heavily domestic production. It seems investors have forgotten weaker ISM and jobs data over the last week.India has been hit with another 25bp in tariffs for purchasing oil from India, although President Trump is now hoping to resolve the Ukraine crisis, possibly meeting with Putin next week. NAB’s

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17:36

More tariffs and more stagflation fears

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/08/05

Wweednesday 6th August July 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABThe S-word has been used a bit overnight as the US ISM Services number showed falls in employment, new orders and rising prices. But, as NAB’s Skye Masters points out, the counter to that is the PMI number for the same month, which rose substantially. So, pick your number, or wait for the dust to settle. Meanwhile President Trump threatened more tariffs during a CNBC interview

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16:36

Oil down as Trump threatens India and OPEC+ pushes...

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/08/04

Tuesday 5th August July 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABHas Friday’s jobs data been forgotten about? Phil puts the question to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, pointing out that there’s very little movement in bond yields. But there’s been no retracement either and auctions this week will test the mettle of investors as to whether any long-term damage has been done by the BLS sacking and Trump’s moves on the Fed board. There’s been a further move

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18:25

Revising history

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/08/03

Monday 4th August July 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABThere were sharp market moves on Friday after all the shenanigans in the US.NAB’s Ray Attrill tells us how markets responded to a far weaker than expected non-farm payrolls report, that included two substantial reductions in the numbers for the prior two months.Market repriced expectations for a cut next month. That would seem to give the President what he wanted, but nonetheless he

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26:56

Weekend Edition: NZ Super Fund – time on their side

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/08/01

Friday 2nd August 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.NZSuperFund is New Zealand’s sovereign wealth fund (SWF), that has earned a reputation for delivering the strongest returns of any SWF globally. So what’s their secret and how do they perform against private funds?Brad Dunstan, their Chief Investment Officer, says the advantage of time on their side. They don’t have to meet demands for

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18:23

Tariff delays already, ahead of today's deadline.

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/07/31

Friday 1st August July 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABYesterday the US President warned there will be no delays on tariffs ahead of the August 1 deadline. Hours later he announced a 90-day delay for Mexico but warned that Canada’s support for Palestine would make a deal difficult. NABs Ken Crompton talks about how non—trade criteria are creeping into the US tariff regime, and it remains uncertain who will get hit with what today. The

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17:51

‘No preset course’ says Powell, as Fed waits longer

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/07/30

Thursday31st July 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABIf anything, the Fed was sounding slightly hawkish at today’s meeting, says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, erven though two dissenters voted for a rate cut. The fear and uncertainty around the inflationary impacts of tariffs is part of the problem, and markets are now seeing a September cut as more or less each way bet. A cut in the range of copper products that will be tariffed from tomorrow

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16:33

Oil worries, job slowdown and mega MAGA borrowing...

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/07/29

Wednesday 30th July 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABOil is the big mover overnight as President Trump confirms Russia has just 10 days to end the war before he imposes secondary tariffs. US equities have fallen. Meanwhile, it seems likely that China will have longer to reach an agreement. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence is rising, although, as NAB’s Sally Auld points out, the Conference Board report also highlighted growing concerns

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12:23

EU a little less excited one day on

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/07/28

Tuesday 29th July 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABThe euphoria over a US—EU trade deal didn’t last long. It has helped catapult the US dollar higher, but at the expense of a big fall in the Euro, with European equities also well down.NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through the about turn, with the realisation that 15% tariffs will slow the European economy.As a result, copper and iron ore prices are well down. Oil, though, is much

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