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Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

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14:01

Remain focused on domestic matters that are key to...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/04/22

In political economy, there is something called "flooding the zone". Roughly explained, this is when a deluge of information takes people's attention away from what should be a priority. In South Africa's agriculture, we are fortunately not under such an attack through the flood of information. Still, we must continuously be vigilant and reflect thoughtfully on risks affecting the sector. In recent weeks, the focus has primarily been on trade matters and the U.S. tariffs, understandably so,

13:59

Four ways South Africa can use to lift the global...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/04/12

South Africa, the only African country that is a member of the G20, holds thepresidency of the grouping until the end of November 2025. During this time, it could help drive the African continent’s food security agenda. For agriculture, South Africa has set four G20 priorities: * the promotion of policies and investments that can lead to improved food and nutrition security * empowering youth and women to participate in agrifood systems * fostering innovation and the transfer of useful

12:26

SA must work to diversify its agricultural export...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/04/07

South Africa was not spared of the "Liberation Day" tariffs announced by US President Trump against various countries. South Africa will face tariffs between 10% and 31% in the US for all products. The specificity of by-products is not yet clear. We know now that a baseline tariff of 10% will apply to imports from all countries. It remains unclear if there are differences in the remaining 21% (that makes up the rest of the 31%) duties levied against South Africa. Under this environment, it is

12:23

SA summer crop harvest set to recover robustly in...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/03/29

South Africa's agriculture is recovering after a challenging mid-summer drought that led to significant crop losses in the 2023-24 season. The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) 's data released at the end of March 2025 paints an encouraging picture of this new season's summer crop production prospects. For example, the 2024-25 summer grain and oilseeds production is forecast at 18,0 million tonnes, up 5% from the previous month's estimate and 16% of the prior season's crop. This comprises maize,

11:52

There is rising optimism in South Africa’s agriculture

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/03/24

We have a challenging year like this one where there remains discomfort about the Expropriation Act in some sections of South Africa and rising geopolitical tensions; we were pleasantly surprised to see rising optimism in South Africa’s agriculture. The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) – a sentiment indicator in South Africa’s agriculture -- increased 11 points from Q4 2024 to 70 in Q1 2025. This is the third consecutive improvement, placing the ACI at its highest level since Q4 2021,

12:30

The conundrum of rising agricultural output and...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/03/15

South Africa has the contradiction of being the leading agricultural exporter in Africa, while swelling number of households that is food insecure. Without proper policy engagement of this challenge, the sector face the risk of more waves of misconceptions about its export-driven growth drive while many South Africans are impoverished. We believe that an accurate diagnosis of the problem and its underlying causes is critical to formulating a suitable policy response. In February 2025, Statistics

13:22

South Africa’s agricultural exports reached a record...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/03/07

South Africa's agriculture exports reached a new record of US$13,7 billion in 2024, up 3% from the previous year. This reflects both an increase in the volume of agricultural exports and higher prices of some products. The top exported products by value include citrus, grapes, maize, apples and pears, wine, nuts, fruit juices, sugar, berries, dates, pineapples, avocados, wool, apricots and peaches, ciders, and beef, amongst other products. Listen to the podcast for more insights. Richard

13:07

Encouraging crop production prospects for SA in the...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/03/01

We have been saying for some time that this will likely be a recovery year for South Africa’s agriculture following a harsh mid-summer drought in the 2023-24 season that weighed on grains and oilseeds harvest. The first production estimates for 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds point to the possibility of a better harvest. The Crop Estimates Committee forecasts the 2024-25 overall summer grains and oilseeds harvest at 17,2 million tonnes, up 11% from the previous season. This comprises maize,

12:47

There are positive prospects for farm jobs in SA

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/02/23

South Africa's agriculture is on its recovery path, supported by favourable rainfall and progress in controlling the spread of animal diseases, amongst other contributing factors. The previous 2023-24 production season was challenging, characterised by the mid-summer drought and animal diseases that added immense pressure to the sector. The jobs data for the fourth quarter of 2024 illustrate the difficulty the sector experienced, although much milder than we anticipated. For example, primary

12:20

What to make of the recent major decline in South...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/02/14

Since I have been writing about the higher maize prices and possible upside risks to consumer food price inflation, I thought it is important to highlight that we have been observing a price retreat since last week.When the market closed today, February 14, 2025, South Africa's white maize spot price was R5 559 per tonne, well below the R6 700 per tonne mark we saw at the start of January 2025. However, it is still up 30% from a year ago. The yellow maize price is R4 940 per tonne, down from R5

13:11

South Africa’s agriculture is thriving

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/02/09

There has been an emerging narrative that South Africa's agriculture has not performed well recently. Inept municipalities, poor road infrastructure, stock theft, and port inefficiencies all contribute to this narrative of failure and despair. Stories of the failings of land reform farms also add to this sentiment of regression in agricultural progress. The government's failings over the past decade and the lack of implementation of many development policies also catalysed this

13:25

South African farmers likely planted a bigger area in...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/01/31

While the start of South Africa's 2024-25 crop season was tricky, there remains optimism that farmers likely planted more area than the previous season. The preliminary plantings data released by the Crop Estimates Committee this afternoon shows that South African farmers likely planted 4,45 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds in the 2024-25 season, up mildly by 0,3% from the previous season. Some of these plantings likely happen outside the typical optimal window because of some

12:00

Can South Africa deepen agricultural exports to China?

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/01/26

A friend recently sent me a Bloomberg article about China's efforts to diversify agricultural imports. The idea is to lessen the reliance on the US in anticipation of trade friction under the Trump administration. Central and South Americans seem to be on the way to becoming the major winners. They have a surplus of agricultural products that China imports, such as grains, oilseeds, red meat, wine, and nuts. The African continent has not benefitted much. I have recently discussed President

12:30

Helping a neighbor – SA continues to supply maize to...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/01/16

Whenever I see challenges within South Africa's agriculture, Zimbabwe is the other country I think of as their challenges are often worse. Notably, South Africa typically has to shoulder Zimbabwe when there are challenges, specifically in staple grain production.Consider the 2023-24 production year, when Zimbabwe had a challenging season due to the mid-summer drought that affected Southern Africa. Zimbabwe's maize harvest fell nearly 60% to around 635 000 tonnes, the lowest since the 2015-16

12:54

The troubling decline of the South African sorghum...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/01/12

Whenever one posts on social media about the challenges in the maize industry, I often see responses from people arguing that South Africans should consume more sorghum. They correctly highlight the nutritious value of the crop and its resilience in challenging climatic conditions. But with all these benefits, the sorghum industry has not taken off. The challenge is not that farmers refuse to plant it. It is due to weak demand for it – consumers are just not buying sorghum products in a way they

12:27

South Africa's agriculture in 2024 and outlook for 2025

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/01/06

We can view 2024 in South Africa's agriculture as a "mixed" year. Indeed, the GDP figures will show a sharp contraction in South Africa's agricultural fortunes in 2024. But a deep dive will illuminate a more nuanced picture of mixed performance. For example, the field crops and livestock subsectors had their fair share of challenges, while the horticulture subsector had a relatively better year. First, the mid-summer drought led to a 23% decline in South Africa's 2023-24 summer grains and oilseeds

13:09

SA sees robust agricultural exports

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/12/13

I am starting to believe that South Africa’s 2024 agricultural exports may reach a new record high and surpass the 2023 record level of US$13, 2 billion. The better prices and output in various fruits, red meat, wool, and wine will be the major driver of the improvement in exports this year. Already, South Africa's cumulative agricultural export value for the first three quarters of 2024 is up 4% from last year, at US$10,55 billion. The top exported products by value include citrus, nuts, maize,

15:33

There is rising optimism in South Africa’s farming...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/12/09

We continue to observe the rising optimism in South Africa’s farming and agribusiness sectors. For example, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI), a sentiment indicator in the sector, increased by 10 points from Q3 to 58 in Q4. This is the second consecutive improvement, placing the ACI at its highest since Q2 2022. This level of the ACI implies that South African agribusinesses remain generally optimistic about business conditions in the country. This optimism is a result of a

16:09

South Africa eases a path for possible maize imports...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/12/01

South Africa’s decision to ease possible maize imports from the U.S. is not necessarily bad. It is a “safety option” in recognition that our white maize supplies are tight. We also face strong demand from broader Southern Africa, whose maize production is down massively because of the drought earlier this year. Such imports will also depend on whether many American farmers planted white corn. Remember, the biggest white maize producers in the world are South Africa and Mexico. The U.S. and South

12:03

The easing agricultural trade friction in SACU is...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/11/24

The Southern African region has experienced agricultural trade friction in the past few years. Namibia and Botswana placed a ban on the imports of South African vegetables and citrus. Simply put, the rationale of both Namibia and Botswana was that the import ban ensures that their domestic producers are not exposed to the South African competition, thus having space to rebuild for self-sufficiency. With all these countries under the customs union, the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), such a

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