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PODCAST

The Macro Trading Floor

Alfonso Peccatiello & Brent Donnelly

The Macro Trading Floor is a fun and actionable macro and markets podcast hosted by Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly. If you are looking for banter, financial education, and actionable trade ideas this is the podcast for you!

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All Episodes

37:49

Option Markets Are Eating The World

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/06/21

In this episode, Alf invites Cem Karsan to discuss what's going on in option markets. Cem does a great job at explaining what's the dispersion trade, how big it has become, and how it might unwind wreaking havoc across asset classes. Alf and Cem also discuss macro and how to use options to structure good risk/reward trade ideas.Visit Cem's website: https://www.kaivolatility.com/

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39:32

What Powell Really Meant

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/06/14

A big macro week is behind us: the combination of CPI and PPI releases provide us with solid information on where the disinflation trend stands. Alf and Brent also discuss Powell’s press conference + change in dots and the European political risks.Want to get in touch with Alf or Brent? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg Ping Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg

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38:25

Risk Management Principles

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/06/07

Alf and Brent discuss the ECB and Bank of Canada cuts, and reflect on the big bond market moves seen recently coupled with carry trade implosions. The discussion focuses around risk management principles to prevent bad left tail outcomes when running carry trades, and how to identify positive expected value trades in macro.Alf is offering a 2-weeks free trial to his institutional research: ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg to get in. Brent just launched Spectra

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28:31

Don't Make This Mistake

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/05/31

Free Trial to Alf's Institutional Research?Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg for more info! In this podcast, Alf invites Peter Farac (aka @countdraghula on Twitter) to the show. Peter brings a wealth of experience running money and has specific skills in rates and vol markets. Alf and Peter discuss where the US business cycle actually is, how markets are positioned, and talk shop: how do we actually trade these markets? Follow Peter @countdraghula on X, Free

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37:08

How Macro Traders Navigate Uncertainties

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/05/24

Want to meet Alf and Brent in person?! Fill in this 30-second survey so we can make this happen:https://www.eSurveysPro.com/Survey.aspx?id=ad4fe049-95b7-40ef-a46b-f1bdc509b256 In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how markets are becoming quickly complacent with realized and implied volatility collapsing across asset classes. The only surprises are still coming from bond markets, while something interesting is brewing in China which could have a meaningful impact for macro going forward. Plus,

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35:42

How To Trade Macro Now?

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/05/17

(Links mentioned in the podcast are in the show notes below: check them out!) Alf and Brent discuss the soft patch the US seems to be going through and the CPI number released this week. If markets are going to continue with this low-vol grind higher, how do you trade macro now? Also, China seems to be cooking something big this time. - Contact me (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg to check out the Crowded Trades Indicator - Link to Bill Bishop piece on

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37:46

Early Signs of Weakness

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/05/10

The Bank of England pre-announced a rate cut in June, the Swedish Riksbank cut interest rates, and there are a few early signs of weakness emerging in the US as well. Is the market ready for a regime switch? Alf and Brent also discuss how they approach trading into volatile events, breaking long-term correlation, and the structural USD strength. Links mentioned in the show: https://www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/cad-v-wti-divortium/ https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#Tab3

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37:24

A New Fed Put?

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/05/03

Descrizione: Nominal growth is showing some early signs of fatigue, while economists' expectations remain elevated and market pricing still quite hawkish. Alf and Brent discuss potential opportunities arising from this setup, and spend time arguing whether Powell just announced a new Fed Put this week. Link to Brent's favorite podcast this week: https://pod.link/1594407589/episode/48072fb61a2a4cd1bf4fbbf9dff7e555

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37:59

A Contrarian Macro Thesis

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/04/26

US Q1 Real GDP printed below expectations but still at a respectable 1.6%, and core inflation was hotter than analysts forecast: more fuel on the fire of the reflation theme? Alf and Brent present a contrarian macro thesis instead, and also discuss the odds of a Chinese devaluation and more. Finally, they talk about the pros/cons of using stop losses in tactical macro trading. Enjoy the show!

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36:36

What if Hikes are Stimulative?!

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/04/19

The Fed is all of a sudden opening up to the possibility of hikes: what now? But most importantly: have you ever thought about the possibility of Fed hikes being stimulative? And finally: do you have any idea why every Central Bank in the world is targeting exactly 2% for inflation?Alf and Brent discuss this and much more in today's episode - have fun! And also take a look at Brent's piece on safe havens through different macroeconomic

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37:47

Yes, But What Will Break Markets?

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/04/12

This week Alf and Brent discuss how markets seem to be on the lookout for a release valve for the combination of a Fed talking about cuts while nominal growth doesn't call for them: commodiites, bond markets, and the US Dollar seem to be all brewing under the surface. But what will actually break markets?

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36:00

The Next Big Trade?

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/04/05

Interested in Alf's Macro Fund?Send an email to fund@themacrocompass.com Markets are in reflation mode with commodities getting bid all over the place: not only gold and crude oil, but also silver, copper, zinc, you name it. Also, the US Dollar is showing signs of topping and it all starts to closely remind one of the most volatile macro periods ever. So: what's the next big trade? Find out in the show!

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36:59

Macro Traders Reflections

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/03/29

Alf welcomes back Brent to the show, and the co-host duo discusses macro data, Fed's Waller speech, Japan and China. But most importantly they share thoughts and observations about the current low volatility market regime, how to approach it trying to avoid the most common macro traders' mistakes, and how to think of risk/reward when looking at insurance trades.Here are some non-trading and investing reads that are useful for traders and

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36:46

Dario Perkins: These Central Banks Better Pivot Fast

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/03/22

This week Alf welcomes Dario Perkins to the show. Dario discusses how we got here with much more benign inflationary dynamics without a big damage to labor markets - hint: Central Bankers were lucky more than skilled. Dario and Alf discuss the path ahead for economies and monetary policy, and a trade idea. Alf opens and closes the show with his thoughts on the big Central Bank events of the week. Go and follow Dario on Twitter (@darioperkins). And share the word about TMTF with a friend!

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35:38

Volatility is Coming

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/03/15

The bond market is waking up to the idea that inflation might be a bit stickier and the Fed's hands are tied. Alf and Brent discuss what this implies for global macro asset classes, and highlight a few trade ideas. Sign up for the free waiting list for Brent's upcoming Spectra School course: https://www.spectramarkets.com/school/

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39:02

Animal Spirits Running Loose

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/03/08

Alf and Brent discuss how animal spirits seem to be running loose in several asset classes. Signs are evident not only in stocks but also in gold, Bitcoin and option markets. They also focus on Japan and the potential tectonic shifts in the Bank of Japan monetary policy stance.

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36:31

Macro Opportunities Around The World

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/02/29

Alf and Brent discuss the outlook for the US economy, and how bond markets have adjusted their pricing to reflect the odds of a soft landing. Is there a trade maybe? They then move their focus to Canada, Europe, New Zealand, China: a tour around the world searching for macro opportunities. Two trade ideas and the most useful/stupidest thing they heard this week to top up the comeback episode of The Macro Trading Floor!Link to the Kelly Criterion

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0:58

It's Back!

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2024/02/25

The Macro Trading Floor is back! And there are quite some surprises...

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31:27

This Is It

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2023/06/25

A last, fascinating tour across global macro asset classes before Alf and Andreas switch the lights off for a while. Want to keep up with Andreas and Alf’s macro views? You can keep up with Andreas through the brand new macro podcast called ‘Macro Sunday’ as well as through his research platform at www.stenoresearch.com, where you can currently get a 30% discount with the code ‘macro30’. Also remember to follow Andreas at @andreassteno on Twitter. Going to miss Alf’s views on TMTF? No worries!

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38:21

The ECB Hikes As The Fed Pauses - Is This 2008 Again?

The Macro Trading Floor ·

2023/06/18

In this episode, Alf and Andreas discuss the decisions from the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan. In a few episodes, The Macro Trading Floor is about to stop for a while: want to keep up with Andreas and Alf’s macro views? You can keep up with Andreas through the brand new macro podcast called ‘Macro Sunday’ as well as through his research platform at www.stenoresearch.com, where you can currently get a 30% discount with the code ‘macro30’. Also remember to follow Andreas at @andreassteno on Twitter.

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121 results

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