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PODCAST

RenMac

Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to

business investing

All Episodes

24:38

RenMac Off-Script: Pardon the Payrolls

RenMac ·

2024/12/06

RenMac discusses the latest payroll data, bubbling animal spirits and sentiment, an update to our market cycle clock and pardon implications and precedents.

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26:11

RenMac Off-Script: Overconfident?

RenMac ·

2024/11/29

RenMac discusses the mismatch between housing data and consumer confidence, the motivations behind Trump’s initial tariff salvo, how seasonality and sentiment are likely to play out in equities and the vulnerability created by the weak Russian Ruble.

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42:26

RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Scott Bessent -...

RenMac ·

2024/11/26

In early 2021, I had the opportunity to catch up with a good friend of mine through the years, Scott Bessent. Given Scott's new role as incoming Treasury Secretary under President elect Trump, I thought it might be helpful to understand how Scott thinks about and sees the world. Here's our conversation from 2021.

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19:11

RenMac Off-Script: The Treasury Apprentice

RenMac ·

2024/11/22

RenMac discusses:Latest developments with Trump appointmentsThe horserace for Treasury secretaryOngoing weakness in labor demandLow bulls in Treasuries are bullishImpact of political appointments on specific sectors

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31:04

RenMac Off-Script: Solid but Cooling

RenMac ·

2024/11/15

RenMac discusses latest inflation data and the impact on the Fed, what labor market’s are telling us about trajectory, Latest Trump nominations, Bitcoin Breakout, Bullish cyclical call stands in stark contrast to weak semiconductors.

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25:17

RenMac Off-Script: The Great Growth Re-Rate

RenMac ·

2024/11/08

Jeff, Neil, and Steve discuss:Expectations between now and electionAccuracy of betting markets in defense of price discoveryThe big losersPath of unified governmentInflation expectationsCyclical trade and market’s messageLabor market conditionsPowell’s futureImportance of personnel to discern direction forward

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31:01

RenMac Off-Script: October Surprise

RenMac ·

2024/11/01

RenMac talks about the payroll surprise, the importance of NC and PA to Trump and Harris, elevated equity volatility and quiescent credit spreads and the Fed’s path into year’s end

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25:44

RenMac Off-Script: Is Kamala Under-Valued?

RenMac ·

2024/10/25

RenMac discusses the process of price discovery in the political prediction markets, the current state of the horserace, the outlook for employment, why Kevin Warsh is off-base in his criticism of the Fed’s September decision, and market seasonality.

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25:42

RenMac Off-Script: Banker in Training

RenMac ·

2024/10/18

RenMac discusses this week’s data, the prospects of a shadow Fed Chair, the latest polls and candidates’ performance, China and how the overbought condition in yields tilts us toward cyclicality.

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27:30

RenMac Off-Script: Trump Bump

RenMac ·

2024/10/11

RenMac discusses:The latest shift in polls in the continued razor-thin election. The latest inflation data and how the sequence of jobs and inflation is impacting the Fed’s trajectory.The overbought condition in yields and the marginal benefit it should have for cyclicals vs defensive names.The bullish spread between equity volatility (VIX) and corporate creditBitcoin Commercial Hedger positioning.

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26:23

RenMac Off-Script: A Jobs Jolt

RenMac ·

2024/10/04

RenMac discusses the latest payroll surprise, the impact Helene is having on polling, China’s historic market strength, the improvement of cyclicals vs defensives, political October surprises and the upcoming inflation data.

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19:44

RenMac Off-Script: China Turns

RenMac ·

2024/09/27

Neil cameos from Oktoberfest while Steve and Jeff discuss the equity strength in China, Kamala’s border visit, the empty promises made by both camps prior to elections and the marginal improvement in bitcoin.

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22:53

RenMac Off-Script: Sticking the Landing

RenMac ·

2024/09/20

RenMac discusses the expected 50bps rate cut, implications for future cuts, the trajectory of the data going forward, the market impact and the latest polling around battleground states.

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18:38

RenMac Off-Script: Trump Takes De Bait

RenMac ·

2024/09/13

RenMac discusses why 50bps makes the most sense, the impact the debate is likely to have on the election, the changes in capital requirements at banks, and some bright spots in energy and silver.

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27:22

RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Pin 50

RenMac ·

2024/09/06

RenMac discusses the weak August employment report, why the next decision really is less about consensus and more about what Powell thinks, a preview of the Trump/Harris debate, and the defensive nature in the equity markets.

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17:04

RenMac Off-Script: Game Day Walk Thru

RenMac ·

2024/08/30

With Neil and Steve on the beach, Jeff and Kevin walk through the market’s message, where the strength and weakness are building and fading, and what it means for the remainder of the year. The team dives deeper into the historical reactions seen by sectors and industries after the Fed’s first rate-cut in a cycle. Happy Labor Day weekend.

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31:52

RenMac Off-Script: Revisionist History

RenMac ·

2024/08/23

The RenMac Team discusses the DNC and latest in the general election campaign, the folly of price controls, the sharp downward revision to payroll employment and what it means for the Fed ahead of Jackson Hole, the recent breakout in gold, balance sheet versus income recession, and how tight policy is based on the gap between two-year yields and the Federal Funds Rate.

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27:58

RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Markets vs Media: Which...

RenMac ·

2024/08/16

RenMac discusses the current sensitive state of markets and the possible impacts of the upcoming decision on rate cuts, Kamala’s potential economic policies, the DNC, and the influence of the presidential election on downballot races, and what next week’s data (as well as Jackson Hole) could mean for markets going forward.

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22:24

RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Claims, Cuts, and Complacency

RenMac ·

2024/08/09

RenMac discusses initial jobless claims, the baseline for rate cuts, and the growing risk of complacency from the Fed and market participants, Kamala’s VP pick (why wasn’t it Shapiro?) and the changing presidential odds, the Nikkei and the liquidity picture, as well as important data on deck for next week.

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22:14

RenMac Off-Script: The Fed's Folly

RenMac ·

2024/08/02

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277 results

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