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Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

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12:27

SA's agricultural employment improves

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/11/19

While the 2023-24 mid-summer drought has been the central theme of the downbeat performance of South Africa's agriculture this year, we see a welcome positive change in the jobs data. Statistics South Africa data show that primary agriculture employment improved by 4% from the previous quarter to 935k jobs in the third quarter. However, from an annual perspective, the performance is weak, down 2% year-on-year. Still, the primary agricultural employment of 935k people is well above the long-term jobs

12:35

South African farmers intend to plant slightly bigger...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/11/10

After a challenging 2023-24 summer crop season, which saw South Africa's grains and oilseeds production falling by 24% year-on-year to 15,39 million tonnes, the recovery period may be in sight. The data released by the Crop Estimates Committee on October 29 shows that South African farmers intend to plant 4,47 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds in the 2024-25 season. This is up mildly by 1% from the previous season. The planting intentions for white maize are at 1,58 million hectares

15:04

Government and industry's efforts to control animal...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/11/03

The past three years have been challenging for South Africa's livestock and poultry industry because of the spread of animal diseases. Throughout this period, we have had various cases of foot-and-mouth disease in cattle, African swine fever in pigs, and avian influenza in poultry. While animal disease outbreaks are not unique to South Africa and indeed common across the world, South Africa's challenges have intensified in the recent past.The cost of diseases in the livestock industry is felt

10:29

There is reason to be optimistic about SA’s 2024-25...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/10/29

I've been one of the people who have been vocal about the positive prospects for the 2024-25 agricultural season in South Africa, leaning of expected La Nina rains. I continue to remain optimistic about the upcoming season. But the reality is that we may have a late season. The good rains of the past few weeks have been scattered, and planting hasn't gained momentum in any meaningful way across the country. This has raised fears in the grains markets about another tough season, partly contributing

15:16

SA’s immense responsibility of stabilizing Southern...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/10/27

South Africa’s agriculture and agribusiness sectors have a broader responsibility for food security beyond our borders. The Southern Africa region leans heavily on South Africa for food supplies. This is clear from the observation of South Africa’s agricultural exports. The country exported about US$13,2 billion of agricultural and processed food products in 2023. Nearly 40% of these exports were for the African continent. Notably, roughly 90 cents in every dollar of South Africa’s agricultural

13:17

South Africa must push agricultural exports within BRICS

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/10/19

South Africa has an export-led agricultural sector, with exports having been a major catalyst in the sector’s growth over the past three decades. But rising geopolitical tensions have introduced new risks, leading to an increased need for the country to diversify its export agricultural markets. In this podcast, we argue that South Africa should expand market access to some key BRICS countries, such as China, India, Egypt, and Saudia Arabia. Other strategic export markets for South Africa's

13:08

In search for optimism in South Africa's agriculture

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/10/14

South Africa's agriculture is showing signs of improving optimism since the start of the Government of the National Unity (GNU), which has fueled confidence levels about the path forward. The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI), a sentiment indicator about business conditions in the sector, has risen from its low levels in the second quarter of 2024. The ACI increased by 10 points to 48 in the third quarter. While the index remains below the neutral 50-point mark, the jump by 10 points

11:55

There is reason to be optimistic about SA's 2024-25...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/10/07

It is perhaps a reasonable choice to remain optimistic about the upcoming 2024-25 summer season in South Africa's agriculture. The global weather forecasters paint encouraging prospects of weather conditions. For example, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University continue to forecast La Niña occurrence. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology states, "The ENSO Outlook is at La Niña Watch, meaning there are some

15:21

The 2024 mid-summer drought continues to weigh on the...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/09/30

South Africa is on its eighth summer grain and oilseeds production forecast for the 2023-24 season. There are two more monthly reports to follow. Given that we are at the tail end of the season and will soon be in the optimal planting window for the 2024-25 production season from mid-October, we thought there would be no major revisions of the production figures at this late stage.But this has not been a typical season, and the lower producer deliveries we have been observing over the past few

12:27

What message should SA agriculture take to Kazan for...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/09/23

South Africa's agricultural growth in the first thirty years of the democratic era has been supported, among other things, by two pivotal interventions. The first was a deliberate and concerted strategy to invest in genetics for crops, horticulture, and livestock. The second intervention was a strong push to expand export markets. As production continues to increase, and there remains capacity for expanding production, these two levers must be accelerated. The trade issues are not purely economic

12:13

Will the 2024-25 season be a recovery period for SA...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/09/16

By this time next month, the fields across the eastern regions of South Africa will likely be busy. Farmers will be tilling the land for the 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed production season in mid-October. It will be another month before the country's western regions start till the land, from mid-November. The variation in the optimal planting windows is mainly due to the differences in rainfall patterns. From now on through the season, the weather outlook will remain a primary focus for the

12:56

South Africa must deepen agricultural trade with China

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/09/09

It is hard to discuss global agriculture without mentioning China. The country is a dominant player in exports and imports of agricultural products. In 2023, China was a leading agricultural importer, accounting for 11% of global agricultural imports. Trailing China was the US, Germany, Netherlands, the UK, France and Japan. Similarly, China played a notable role in exports, and it was the fifth-largest agricultural exporter in the world in 2023. The leading countries ahead of China were the US,

12:22

South Africa's agricultural export growth cooled off...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/09/02

After the sharp increase in the first quarter of 2024, South Africa's agricultural exports fell slightly on a year-on-year (y/y) basis in the second quarter. According to data from Trade Map, the country's agricultural exports were at US$3.37bn in the second quarter, a 0,1% decline relative to the same period last year. This comes after growth of 6% y/y in the first quarter of the year. The slight decrease in the second quarter reflects the moderation in the prices of some agricultural products

14:52

Reflections on women's participation in South...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/08/26

On various occasions, I have highlighted South Africa's agricultural sector's gains in the first three decades of democracy. The sector has more than doubled in value and volume terms. Better seed varieties in crops, vegetables, and fruits, as well as improved genetics in livestock and poultry, have, among other interventions, been the catalyst for output growth. The opening up of export markets over the years has also created a solid demand that today, we export roughly half of what we produce in

11:23

SA farm jobs remain well above the long term averages

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/08/19

The effects of the recent El Niño-induced mid-summer drought are starting to show in South Africa's agricultural jobs data. For example, the Quarterly Labour Force Survey data shows that employment in primary agriculture was down 5% quarter-on-quarter to 896k in the second quarter of 2024. From an annual basis perspective, the performance is also weak, although up 0,2% from the second quart of 2023. Still, the primary agricultural employment of 896k people remains well above the long-term jobs of

12:03

South Africa's wheat crop looks promising from a...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/08/13

On August 10, we drove across the Swartland region of the Western Cape from the Karoo side of the Northern Cape. As we entered the Western Cape, I couldn't miss the excellent sight of the wheat fields from a distance. And yes, I appreciate that the Western Cape has received excessive rain recently; the picture certainly is not all rosy. Some fields have puddles of water, which may undermine the crop's growth potential. Our members in the area tell me that the southern regions of Swartland may be

10:54

The better global agricultural conditions paint a...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/08/05

South Africa's agriculture is part of the global agricultural market. Therefore, we must consistently pay attention to the production conditions of agricultural commodities globally as they impact our domestic prices and consumers. The world endured elevated food prices in the past few years for various reasons, ranging from drought in the major agricultural-producing regions of South America to the Black Sea wars. But in recent months, global agricultural prices and consumer food prices have

12:52

The mid-summer drought was harsh, but SA will still...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/07/29

South Africa's agricultural sector has various institutions, organizations and committees that all play specific roles in supporting the sector's growth and sustainability. One of the vital committees housed at the Department of Agriculture is the Crop Estimates Committee. This Committee benefits on skills, among others, from government, academia, and the private sector. Its main task is to provide production forecasts for winter and summer grains and oilseed. These data are crucial to

11:44

These are three major challenges facing SA...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/07/22

The start of July presented three challenges whose impact will become clearer in the weeks ahead. Firstly, in the northern regions of South Africa, particularly in Limpopo, the potato crop has suffered losses because of frost after an unusually cold spell in the region. The most affected crops are the ones planted from May onwards. The scale and impact of the damage at the national level are yet to be clear. However, rough estimates and anecdotes from various industry players suggest that we are

11:50

La Niña prospects in the upcoming 2024/25 season are...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/07/15

After a challenging El Niño induced drought season in 2023/24 summer, South Africa’s agriculture may get a relief in the upcoming 2024/25 summer season.Early indications of weather prospects are encouraging, showing a firm likelihood of a La Niña occurrence. The International Research Institute for Climate Change and Society at Columbia University places the probability of a La Niña occurrence at over 50% between now and April 2025. Such weather events typically bring above-average rainfall across

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