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Excess Returns

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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All Episodes

00:57:43

The Case for a Broadening Bull Market | Jim Paulsen

Excess Returns ·

2025/07/25

Subscribe on Apple Podcsastshttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jim-paulsen-show/id1828054999Subscribe on Spotifyhttps://open.spotify.com/show/3QaBDVGuBZ3cZfFZ4mqPFcSubscribe on YouTubehttps://www.youtube.com/excessreturnsIn the premiere episode of our new monthly series, The JimPaulsen Show we dig into Jim's latest research and the charts that definetoday's economic and market landscape. Jim lays out a compelling case for whythe private sector is more resilient than many believe, why

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00:56:55

You’re Misreading the Rally | Liz Ann Sonders on What...

Excess Returns ·

2025/07/23

📉 What the Market Is Getting Wrong | Liz Ann Sonders on Debt, Tariffs, and the FedIn this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, for an in-depth conversation about what's really driving markets right now. Drawing on her latest research and commentary, we dig into retail trading dynamics, the implications of rising tariffs, the debt burden, inflation pressures, market concentration, and why the Fed might be holding the line. Liz Ann

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00:49:49

This Isn’t Priced In | PIMCO’s Libby Cantrill on the...

Excess Returns ·

2025/07/20

Policy uncertainty is rising—but markets seem unfazed. In this episode, we sit down with Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, to explore the critical policy risks that investors may be underestimating or ignoring altogether.From the real-world implications of the tariffs to questions around Fed independence, fiscal stimulus, and housing market interventions, Libby provides an insider’s perspective on what’s happening in Washington—and why it matters more than the market suggests.She also

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00:57:11

False Recession Alarms. Real Risks. | Aahan Menon on...

Excess Returns ·

2025/07/16

Why didn’t the long-predicted recession arrive? In this episode, we talk with Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, about why traditional macro models are breaking down and what investors are missing in today’s economy. Aahan explains why recession indicators have failed, how monetary policy transmission has changed, and what really matters in understanding economic risk right now.We also explore how Prometheus uses a systematic approach to macro investing, why focusing on the present is more

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00:50:30

How Option Dealer Flows Impact the Stock Market

Excess Returns ·

2025/07/11

Billions are moving through the stock market every day—but not for the reasons most investors think.In this episode, Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma breaks down the hidden world of options dealer flows and explains how concepts like gamma, vanna, and charm are silently shaping market behavior. Whether you’re a trader or long-term investor, understanding these behind-the-scenes forces is essential to making sense of today’s volatility.We discuss:What dealer hedging flows are—and why they matterHow options

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00:58:10

The Great Moderation is Over. The Great Convergence...

Excess Returns ·

2025/07/08

In this episode, we speak with Luca Paolini, Chief Strategist at Pictet Asset Management, about the firm’s 2025 Secular Outlook and the unfolding shift in global markets. Paolini argues that the era of U.S. exceptionalism is fading—and investors may be mispricing what comes next. We discuss why the “Great Convergence” could redefine asset allocation, what it means for U.S. equities and the dollar, and why now might be the time to lean into bonds and income-generating assets.Paolini also shares his

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01:29:43

Whipsaws, Drawdowns, and Disbelief | Eric Crittenden...

Excess Returns ·

2025/06/28

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler and Jason Buck sit down with Eric Crittenden, CIO of Standpoint Funds, for a wide-ranging and candid discussion about trend following, risk transfer markets, and what it takes to build a resilient investment strategy for uncertain futures. Eric shares decades of hard-won insights on investor behavior, portfolio construction, performance pain points, and why blending passive equities with systematic macro might just be the future of asset allocation.🔍

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00:59:19

Broken Models. Misleading Yields | Ryan Krueger on...

Excess Returns ·

2025/06/25

Most investors chase yield. But what if the very models they rely on — from dividend screens to the 4% rule — are fundamentally broken?In this episode, we’re joined by Ryan Krueger, co-founder of Freedom Day Solutions and manager of the MBOX ETF, to explore the overlooked truths of dividend investing. Ryan breaks down the importance of dividend growth over yield, why most dividend strategies ignore free cash flow, and how a disciplined sell process separates long-term success from failure. He also

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00:50:32

500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers. First Time in a...

Excess Returns ·

2025/06/23

In this episode, we’re joined by Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin and author of Hate the Game, to explore the most dramatic shift in the U.S. housing market in over a decade. With sellers now outnumbering buyers by more than 500,000 for the first time since 2013, Daryl breaks down what’s really happening beneath the surface—and why so many homeowners and policymakers are reluctant to face it.We dive into the behavioral and structural forces shaping the market today, from price stickiness

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01:16:45

Buffett Does It. Most Value Investors Don’t | Robert...

Excess Returns ·

2025/06/21

Robert Hagstrom returns to discuss the investing principle he believes most value investors still misunderstand—despite decades of evidence from Warren Buffett. In this conversation, we explore why focus investing works, what traditional value investors got wrong about the Magnificent Seven, and how the industry's obsession with low P/E ratios and short-term tracking error leads to missed opportunities. Hagstrom also reflects on lessons from working with Bill Miller and explains why evolving your

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00:55:26

Recession Indicators Are Breaking. Inflation Isn’t |...

Excess Returns ·

2025/06/19

Megan Horneman: Fragile Optimism, Hidden Inflation Risks, and What Investors Are MissingIn this episode, we’re joined by Megan Horneman, Chief Investment Officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, to discuss her firm’s 2025 outlook and what she sees as the key macro risks and opportunities for investors right now.We explore the themes behind her “Year of Fragile Optimism” thesis, including consumer stress, inflation persistence, the impact of tariffs, debt sustainability, and why many investors are

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00:57:09

Broken Data. Hidden Opportunity | GMO's Warren Chiang...

Excess Returns ·

2025/06/15

GMO’s Warren Chiang joins us for a deep dive into the art and science of systematic value investing. In this episode, Warren shares how his team has refined traditional value investing to adapt to an intangible-heavy world, the structural reasons deep value is historically cheap today, and how top-down insights from GMO’s asset allocation group are implemented in practice. We also explore how ESG, momentum, macro, and geopolitical shifts—including the China decoupling—are integrated into portfolio

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00:59:23

Blind to Power: The Hidden Investing Risk of Rising...

Excess Returns ·

2025/06/12

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Peter Atwater—President of Financial Insyghts, author of The Confidence Map, and expert on decision-making under uncertainty. Peter lays out a bold and timely framework: in a world led by dominant nationalist figures, global corporations—and their investors—must now navigate a high-stakes game of being labeled either beneficiaries or victims. This conversation digs deep into how these dynamics shape capital flows, investor sentiment,

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01:01:01

Finding Great GARP Stocks with David Giroux

Excess Returns ·

2025/06/09

David Giroux, CIO and Head of Investment Strategy at T. Rowe Price Investment Management, has achieved something rare in investing—beating his Morningstar peer group for 17 consecutive years. In this conversation, Giroux shares his investment philosophy, including how he identifies GARP (growth at a reasonable price) opportunities, adapts to market inefficiencies, and constructs a resilient portfolio. He also discusses his outlook on AI, interest rates, market cycles, and why long-term thinking

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00:53:33

The $9 Trillion Risk | Rupert Mitchell on the Unwind...

Excess Returns ·

2025/06/07

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Rupert Mitchell—founder of Blind Squirrel Macro—for an insightful, opinionated, and often humorous discussion on global market dynamics, the Mag 7, structural portfolio shifts, and what it takes to be a successful generalist investor. From the “Chart of Truth” to the hidden value in tire stocks, Rupert brings decades of experience and a distinctive lens to markets, risk, and opportunity.🔍 Topics Covered:Why European pension funds are

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01:07:40

Inside a Top Quant's Playbook | Joe Gubler on the...

Excess Returns ·

2025/06/05

🎙️ Inside Causeway’s Quant Playbook | Joe Gubler on Factor Innovation, Risk, and Portfolio DesignIn this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Joe Gubler, Director of Quantitative Research at Causeway Capital. Joe shares a deep dive into Causeway’s distinctive approach to factor investing, blending traditional quant signals with fundamental insights, and building models that adapt to market context. From constructing proprietary sustainability alpha signals to using machine learning to refine

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00:54:58

Big Decline. Big Rally. What the Charts Tell Us About...

Excess Returns ·

2025/06/02

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, for a deep dive into the current state of the market through the lens of technical analysis. Katie walks us through her outlook on U.S. and international equities, key sector rotations, and the signals her indicators are sending about what’s next. We also explore the strategy behind her tactical ETF (TACK) and how investors can use chart-based insights to manage risk and identify

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00:55:40

The Stimulus Deception | Rob Arnott Explains What...

Excess Returns ·

2025/05/31

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott to explore his provocative research challenging mainstream economic assumptions. Rob walks us through why government stimulus often fails to deliver real growth, how decades of rising spending have shaped today’s economic environment, and what the implications are for debt, deficits, and future returns. We also dive into trade policy, tariffs, and where Rob sees the best opportunities in today’s markets using

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00:29:25

The Hidden Logic of Options | Put-Call Parity...

Excess Returns ·

2025/05/28

In this episode of Teach Me Like I'm 5, options expert Kris Abdelmessih breaks down one of the most foundational—and misunderstood—concepts in options trading: put-call parity. Using Lego analogies, homemade spreadsheets, and Fast & Furious references, Kris shows how options are like building blocks you can combine to create any payoff you want—including replicating a stock itself.Whether you're a beginner trying to understand options basics or a seasoned investor looking for deeper

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00:56:53

The Hidden Trap in Concentrated Wealth | Wes Gray &...

Excess Returns ·

2025/05/24

In this episode of Excess Returns, we dive deep into one of the most complex and pressing issues facing successful investors today: what to do with concentrated stock positions. Whether from employee stock compensation or a major investment win, holding too much of a single stock presents serious tax and diversification challenges. Our guests—Wes Gray of Alpha Architect, Sri Narayan of Cache Financial, and guest host Dave Nadig—break down the innovative solutions that are changing the game. From

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416 results

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