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The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

Capital Economics

Capital Economics, a world leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what"s happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed"s next decision to China"s slowdown to moves in equities, bonds and FX, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight the issues that investors should be paying more attention to.

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All Episodes

21:43

The World in 2025 – The macro themes that will shape...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2024/12/05

This is a special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics all about the themes that will shape the global economy in 2025. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown stepped out of our client event in London on 4th December to talk to David Wilder about the 2025 growth story. They discussed how Donald Trump’s policy pledges will – and won’t – affect US and global macro variables in the coming year, whether creaking public debt profiles will

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22:51

More tariff threats, China and 'Japanification',...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2024/11/29

It was déjà vu all over again this week after a social media post from Donald Trump rattled markets. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss how seriously we should treat the president-elect’s online threat to impose sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. He also talks about whether moves in the bond market suggest that China is turning Japanese and warns of a distorted November US payrolls report.Plus, a

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13:26

Special Episode: What to make of Trump's tariff warning

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2024/11/27

This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics is an exclusive extract from our online Drop-In briefing following Donald Trump’s threat to impose massive tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. Was this a negotiating ploy from the president-elect? Who’ll pay the cost of higher tariffs? How would targeted countries respond? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing, Vicky Redwood, our Senior Economic Adviser, and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham answered these questions

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25:55

Trying to avoid talking Trump and what an end to the...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2024/11/22

Discussion on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics attempts to avoid any mention of Donald Trump – and fails almost immediately. But Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing’s point is that there is a lot going on in the world besides regime change in Washington. He talks to David Wilder about why inflation is worrying markets, why China’s stimulus hopes were dashed, and what Nvidia’s earnings say about AI’s potential. Plus, despite signs of intensification in the war

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30:48

The economic fallout from tariffs and deportations...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2024/11/16

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hops off the plane from New York and hops onto the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to explain what Donald Trump’s cabinet nominations signal about the macro policy outlook, how Europe and China could respond to tariffs and the economic implications of removing millions of migrant workers from the US economy.Plus, as the initial, post-election euphoria in US financial markets – dubbed the 'Trump bump' – wears off, Deputy Chief

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24:23

Trump up-ends the macro narrative and the Chinese...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2024/11/08

As the dust settles on that momentous election, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss what is known and unknown about the coming Trump administration. He talks about potential guardrails on the president-elect’s pledges and about how central banks – not least the Fed – can navigate this trickier policy environment. Plus, after another widely anticipated Chinese stimulus announcement disappoints, Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams

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13:56

Special Episode: The US election aftermath and...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2024/11/06

In the wake of Donald Trump’s stunning election victory, our senior economists briefed clients ahead of the New York open on its macro and market implications. In this exclusive clip, you’ll hear Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talking to Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth and Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, on the key issues around the aftermath of Election Day, including:What Trump’s policies could mean for US growth, inflation and Fed policy;How

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26:36

What this election means for macro and markets and...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2024/11/01

Ahead of the year’s big political event, The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics includes an exclusive clip from our client briefing all about what to expect from the US election. Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and the team tackle everything from Kamala Harris’ fiscal plans to how the euro could react to which candidate the Chinese Communist Party would prefer to deal with. (Watch the full briefing here.)Plus, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory discusses why Chancellor Rachel

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13:39

Special Episode: UK Budget – Macro impact, market...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2024/10/30

After weeks of leaking and background briefings, Rachel Reeves finally revealed her debut UK Budget. Paul Dales, Diana Iovanel and Andrew Kenningham held an online client briefing about the Chancellor’s tax, borrowing and spending plans and what they mean for the UK economy and markets. This exclusive extract focuses on:What this Budget means for growth and Bank of England policy;How financial markets received the Budget news and where gilt yields are heading;What this Budget could mean for

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29:44

Bond market jitters, UK Budget preview, Trudeau’s...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2024/10/25

Perhaps the most frequently asked question of the Capital Economics team is around fiscal risks and their implications for financial markets. There were more incoming this past week as Donald Trump looked to be doing better in the polls and more details about the UK Budget trickled out, all against a backdrop of rising bond yields. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what’s behind the rise in yields and how bond investors perceive government commitments to getting a grip on public

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30:38

What Trump gets wrong on tariffs, a super-sized ECB...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2024/10/18

Donald Trump says ‘tariff’ is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary”. That’s up for debate – but what’s less arguable is that raising taxes on imports as much as the Republican presidential candidate is threatening would be bad trade policy, according to Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing. He’s on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss why tariffs would hurt the US economy and the economies of its key trading partners, all while failing to achieve

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23:54

Another China stimulus let-down, the Fed and ECB’s...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2024/10/13

It’s a rare thing for a press conference from China’s Minister of Finance to excite quite so much, but there were widespread hopes in markets that Saturday’s briefing from Lan Fo’an would finally provide the details of fiscal easing plans that had been missing from the government’s stimulus pledges so far. Did Minister Lan deliver? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his assessment on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics and discusses what the leadership

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34:15

Larry Adam and Neil Shearing on the global...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2024/10/04

Is the US facing a hard landing, a soft landing or no landing? Have stimulus announcements fundamentally changed the China equities story? How should investors trade risks around the US election?Raymond James CIO Larry Adam joins Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. They talk to David Wilder about the big issues in global macro and markets in a wide-ranging chat that takes in:How quickly the Fed will unwind its restrictive

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8:59

Special: Iran's missile strike on Israel and oil...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2024/10/02

In the wake of Iran’s missile strike on Israel on Tuesday, Deputy Chief EM Economist Jason Tuvey and David Oxley, our Chief Commodities and Climate Economist, talk about implications for the global oil market, including: What an Israeli retaliation against Iranian oil production could mean for prices;The risks around Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz;How far prices would need to rise to threaten the global inflation picture.Further readingOil spikes, but not yet a concern for central

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25:06

China’s stimulus blizzard, the ECB’s quandary, Kamala...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2024/09/27

China’s leadership finally took action this week to staunch the economy’s bleeding with a flurry of stimulus announcements and pledges to do more. But will it be enough? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about whether the outlook for the Chinese economy has fundamentally shifted as a result of a news-packed few days. He also talks about what the latest European inflation data suggests about how the ECB will play its October meeting and marks the second anniversary of

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21:06

As the Fed gets cutting, where will rates settle?

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2024/09/22

After the long-awaited start to the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses next steps. He answers client questions about the risks of inflation bouncing back and explains why we expect rates to settle at levels much higher than before the pandemic.Also, on the show, Lily Millard and Shilan Shah from our emerging markets team discuss how EM central banks are likely to respond as US rates start falling.Analysis and events referenced in this

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15:23

Property Special: Retail’s return from the dead and...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2024/09/17

Reports of retail’s death have been exaggerated. After a long and painful adjustment, the retail’s potential to deliver decent returns means our commercial real estate team now thinks it’ll be the second best performer among the major sectors over our forecast horizon in both the US and UK. CRE Chief Economist Kiran Raichura and Matt Pointon, our UK CRE lead, are on this special property-themed episode of The Weekly Briefing to talk to David Wilder about our forecasts and address some of

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24:06

25 or 50? What the Fed will do, how markets could...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2024/09/15

As the much-anticipated start of Fed easing approaches, the debate has centred on whether Powell & Co. will opt for a 25 or a 50-basis point rate cut. On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses the rationale for a larger move, but also explains why we’re expecting this easing cycle to begin with a 25bps move. Senior Markets Economist James Reilly is also on the show to talk about our new interactive dashboard which

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12:41

What that payrolls report means for the Fed, the...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2024/09/06

That August payrolls report was one of the more keenly awaited data releases in a while – but what do its details suggest about how the Fed is likely to start monetary easing when it meets later this month? On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talk recession risks, the Fed and ECB meetings, manufacturing’s struggles and more.Analysis and events referenced in this episode:US

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20:30

August payrolls preview, China's confused policy...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2024/09/01

August’s US employment report release on Friday will be the coming week’s must-watch market event. On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks about what we’re expecting and how the outcome could influence the anticipated start of Fed easing this month. Neil also discusses China’s confusing policy signals and, ahead of client briefings this week, highlights some of the key risks that the economist team is watching between

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