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The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

Capital Economics

Capital Economics, a world leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what"s happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed"s next decision to China"s slowdown to moves in equities, bonds and FX, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight the issues that investors should be paying more attention to.

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All Episodes

28:42

Special episode: The World in 2026 – Key drivers, key...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2025/12/12

In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing podcast, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown outline Capital Economics' expectations for 2026.They tackle the key drivers and risks in the year ahead, examining how the AI narrative will unfold, why the US will be a notable outperformer, how much further China’s exporters can take market share and why a new Fed chair probably won’t deliver the rate cuts that Donald Trump wants.Learn more: The World in

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31:31

Can Europe compete in a fractured world?

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2025/12/05

The year began amid optimism that Europe was finally prepared to meet its economic potential. But as the end of 2025 approaches, how much has actually changed in the European story of weak growth and political fragmentation? In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing join David Wilder to what has – and hasn’t – changed in the European outlook.They explore Europe’s challenges in

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26:50

UK Budget: The Missing Growth Story | China: The...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2025/11/27

After all the kite-flying, the doom-laden briefings and the policy U-turns, the UK Budget landed well with the markets. But did gilts rally simply because the news wasn’t worse, or has the government genuinely won over the bond vigilantes? And for all the initial success in launching this Budget, where is the strategy that will lift the UK’s anaemic growth? Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory join David Wilder to assess the Budget’s impact, the economic

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35:42

More AI bubble fears, the UK Budget countdown and...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2025/11/21

Is the bubble bursting? Despite a big earnings beat from Nvidia, concerns about overheated AI valuations are mounting. Jonas Goltermann weighs the risks that the equities rally is fading. We also look at what to expect from Rachel Reeves’ Budget after an unusually turbulent build-up, and the possible economic fallout. And Neil Shearing considers what this week’s Trump-Mohammed bin Salman meeting signals about Saudi Arabia’s position in a fracturing global economy.Analysis and events

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41:19

Is AI killing jobs, and when does the growth payoff...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2025/11/14

Where is the big macro payoff from the surge in artificial intelligence investment? And is AI wiping out entry-level jobs? The latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics unpacks these questions and examines what this new wave of technology really means for growth and labour markets.The episode also marks the reopening of the US government with a clear assessment of the economic outlook, and explores how fiscal risks are disrupting politics across the US and Europe. These

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34:45

The Rachel Reeves tax threat, the Supreme Court...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2025/11/07

Who was Rachel Reeves really speaking to when she hinted at higher taxes this week? How much of a threat is the Supreme Court to Treasury tariff revenues? And how useful is “G2” as a lens for the new global order? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks these big global macro questions in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. Also on the show, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins assesses whether this week’s sell-off marks the end of the great AI-driven US

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34:17

Driving in fog, standing on ice: The Fed and the...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2025/10/31

The Fed is trying to calibrate policy in the midst of a government shutdown that’s effectively cut off the flow of data. Jerome Powell says that when you’re driving in fog, you should slow down – but there’s still a case for the FOMC to follow this past week’s rate cut with another move in December, says Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown. He talks to David Wilder about why the state of the US economy argues for another cut this year, but fewer in 2026 than markets currently

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26:16

Trump and Xi, CPI and the Fed, oil and sanctions

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2025/10/24

Out of the darkness of a shuttered US government comes a rare data release – and it’s a CPI report that’s given markets some relief as the week draws to a close. But does September’s inflation data really clear the way for Fed rate cuts in December as well as October, as investors now expect?In this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains why the Fed is likely to stay cautious, previews key upcoming central bank meetings,

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35:40

US–China trade war – What’s driving the latest...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2025/10/17

In just a few days, US–China relations have taken a troubling turn. How did we go from the goodwill of the London and Madrid bilaterals to the current war of words, the threats and the counter-threats? Is this simply pre-APEC brinkmanship, or the start of a more fundamental breakdown in relations between Washington and Beijing? And how great are the risks of a miscalculation that spills over into the global economy? In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics,

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30:04

The AI frenzy, Japan’s market shock and France’s...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2025/10/10

How reliant is the US economy on the AI investment boom? It’s a question Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing keeps getting in client meetings. On this episode of The Weekly Briefing, he tells David Wilder why there’s more to the story than hype around a new technology. Neil also explains why France faces a political – but not an economic – crisis, and what to make of China’s toughest moves yet to control rare earth exports.Also on the show, six months after Liberation Day, Deputy Chief

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32:19

Global Outlook: US leads, Europe lags | China’s...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2025/10/03

Our new Global Economic Outlook has just been published – and it makes for a striking contrast. In the US, the drag from Trump’s policy agenda looks set to be outweighed by an AI-driven investment boom that may already be lifting productivity. In Europe, by contrast, the optimism seen earlier this year has faded as structural headwinds continue to hold growth back.In this episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explores how AI may be transforming America’s

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29:08

Tariffs, rates… and an Argentina rescue

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2025/09/26

Tariffs are back in the headlines after Donald Trump’s latest announcements – but how much of a threat do these new levies really pose? Could they fuel inflation pressures, and is Trump’s trade policy really bringing manufacturing jobs back?Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to assess Trump’s tariff threats, explain why Stephen Miran’s call for US rates to be halved doesn’t add up, and examine what’s driving the divergence between inflation in the US and Europe/UK.Also on the show, Latin

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30:49

US-China talks, LatAm’s crime surge and central bank...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2025/09/19

There’s plenty of talk about a possible settlement in US-China relations, but Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing urges caution. Ahead of a call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, he spoke with David Wilder about how a deal might be struck – and why it would fall short of easing the deeper tensions driving the fracturing of the global economy.Also on the show, with crime rising in Latin American countries once seen as relatively safe, Chief Emerging Markets Economist William Jackson

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29:40

US economy pre-Fed health check | Oil prices vs...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2025/09/12

The Fed meets this coming week to decide how much monetary relief the US economy really needs. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing says that, employment data aside, the evidence argues for fewer rate cuts than markets are pricing in. He talks to David Wilder about the health of the economy, whether the surge in AI investment is making a difference, and previews the Bank of England meeting, where the pace of quantitative tightening may be slowed by a still-febrile bond market. Also on the

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29:08

US jobs hit, France’s budget gridlock and China's...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2025/09/05

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles that weak US August Employment report, previews the coming week’s inflation data, talks about what’s been happening in the bond market and explains just what recent get-togethers in China signal about a new world order.Also on the show, ahead of a crunch vote for France’s government, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham talks about why the French political establishment is struggling to break out of its fiscal logjam, and what this all means

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29:03

Neil Shearing on The Fractured Age: How the Return of...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2025/08/28

What tensions will yet erupt as the US–China economic relationship unravels? What will the global economy look like in 2040? And what should business and government leaders be doing now to adapt to an era of economic fracturing?The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy is published on 28 August. In this special episode, author and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to unpack the book’s key lessons and to show how today’s headlines

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27:30

A Chinese consumption breakthrough? | The global jobs...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2025/08/22

China’s government is making louder noises about boosting consumption, a shift that’s critical not just for rebalancing its investment-heavy economy, but also for easing global imbalances. But are these signals part of a real policy pivot? China Economist Leah Fahy talks to David Wilder about the latest in China’s rebalancing story and what it means for the trajectory of its economic growth. Also in this episode: July’s US jobs report was a shock, but it’s part of a wider slowdown across

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41:38

China's struggles, Bessent's overreach, Wall Street's...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2025/08/15

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles the week’s biggest macro and market questions, including: what could Beijing do after more weak China data? Why tariffs aren’t showing up more in the US economy? How much have the latest inflation reports shifted the Fed’s rate-cut debate – and should the Treasury Secretary be taking shots at central banks?Also: Chief Markets Economist John Higgins on why we’ve lifted our S&P 500 forecasts, the limits of valuation metrics, and the risks

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26:01

BoE division, data confusion, looming US CPI | Taking...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2025/08/08

After an extraordinarily divisive Bank of England policy meeting, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explores why it’s become so difficult to get a clear read on the UK economy. Part of the problem lies with the data – an issue now making headlines in the US following Donald Trump’s dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner. Neil explains what this means for the credibility of official data and what to watch for in the upcoming BLS inflation release, which could prove

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26:08

That big payrolls miss and the US outlook plus AI's...

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics ·

2025/08/01

Does July's grim US jobs report vindicate the Fed's dissenters who pushed for rate cuts this week? Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann unpack what the latest data reveal about the health of the US economy, the Fed’s strategy and how markets are reacting. Plus, with AI's global rollout pointing to formidable energy demands, Climate and Commodities Economist Olivia Cross explains where the supply will come from.Analysis and

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