PODCAST

Economy Watch

Interest.co.nz / Podcasts NZ, David Chaston, Gareth Vaughan, interest.co.nz

We follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.

business investing

All Episodes

00:05:21

US business activity slows

Economy Watch ·

2025/09/23

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the latest data shows American business activity slowing further.But first up this morning we should note that the overnight dairy Pulse event brought little-change to either the ASMP or WMP prices. This is as expected for SMP but 'better' than expected for WMP. In NZD

00:04:23

Eye of the storm

Economy Watch ·

2025/09/22

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Super Typhoon Ragasa aims for a direct hit on southern China.But first up, we can report that the US National Activity Index as collated by the Chicago Fed, was less negative in August, extending the negative trend to five consecutive months. But the July data was revised

00:05:45

Who is foretelling our economic future? the equity or...

Economy Watch ·

2025/09/21

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are likely to get a lesson this week reconfirming that equity markets all look for short-term profit hits and are now setting prices on these short-term factors. But bond markets are much more focused on risks 10-30 years ahead and their signals are diverging markedly.This

00:04:54

The NZD is hammered

Economy Watch ·

2025/09/18

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the New Zealand dollar has been re-rated sharply lower overnight, although to be fair only back to levels it was at in April. US benchmark interest rates are rising but the new weaker New Zealand economy is expected to drive the OCR lower than earlier expected.But first in the

00:04:41

A Fed rate cut, but also rising imposed uncertainty

Economy Watch ·

2025/09/17

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news financial markets are struggling to make sense of the US Fed's latest rate cut rationale, one that looks infused with new White House politics.First up this morning, the US central bank cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 4.25% as expected, despite noting that American

00:04:27

Signaled rate cuts locked in

Economy Watch ·

2025/09/16

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets now universally expect the American central bank to cut rates tomorrow by -25 bps.But today, the overnight dairy auction brought a much better result than expected with the declines for both WMP and SMP nowhere near as sharp as indicated by the earlier derivatives

00:04:58

Markets expect rate cut salve

Economy Watch ·

2025/09/15

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news both the US and China are eyeing rate cuts to bolster wavering economies.While all financial market attention is on the US Fed and its Thursday rate review - and market positioning is underway relative to the expected -25 bps cut - there is other economic news being

00:05:07

Inflation up, jobs down. The US Fed has to choose a...

Economy Watch ·

2025/09/14

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news fighting inflation may well be a downgraded objective in the face of political pressure. The consequences could be long-lasting and global.For financial markets, this week will be all about the US Fed's Thursday rate decision where now a -25 bps cut is widely anticipated, to

00:08:12

US economic prospects turn darker

Economy Watch ·

2025/09/11

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news away from the guns and hatred consuming the US at present. Our challenge is to keep it out of our society.Markets had been waiting for the American August CPI inflation data and it came in higher, although no more than expected. It rose to 2.9% in August, the highest since

00:06:27

Eyes on US CPI for Fed-friendly result

Economy Watch ·

2025/09/10

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news all eyes are now on tomorrow's US CPI release for August.But first, there was surprising news from the US. August producer prices rose far less than any analyst has forecast. In fact they fell -0.1% in August from July, following a downwardly revised +0.7% gain in July,

00:04:47

US settles in to accept economic stagnation & isolation

Economy Watch ·

2025/09/09

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that rather than understating US jobs growth - which got her fired - the stats agency reporting labour market data overstated Trump's jobs growth, and by some margin.But first up today, there was a dairy Pulse auction earlier today for both SMP and WMP, and while prices

00:04:34

More US data weakness rattles bond markets

Economy Watch ·

2025/09/08

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news bond markets are increasingly worried about what will transpire from the US CPI data for August later this week, and the US Fed's reaction next week.First today, American inflation expectations seem to be rising. In August they came in at 3.2%, their highest in three months

00:07:21

Stagflation lurks in the US, deflation lurks in China

Economy Watch ·

2025/09/07

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news American right-wing swamp populism is driving the world's economy into a blind alley. Other countries are trying to figure out how to separate themselves from that.In the week ahead, financial markets will be assessing the risks of stagflation after the weaker labour market

00:06:04

Markets gird for weakish US labour market report

Economy Watch ·

2025/09/04

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news financial markets can now taste a US Fed rate cut.Today, all eye are on tomorrow's August non-farm payrolls report for the US. Analysts expect them to rise a minor +75,000 but overnight labour market data suggests that may be optimistic.First, US initial jobless claims rose

00:05:26

US hit with pessimistic data

Economy Watch ·

2025/09/03

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world's largest economy is being hit today with a string of pessimistic data reports, despite one of the tech giants avoiding a breakup which saw its shares surge to a record high.American job openings fell by 176,000 to 7.18 mln in July and that was the lowest level

00:05:15

US returns from holidays in a grumpy mood

Economy Watch ·

2025/09/02

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that US financial markets are back from holiday and concluding that the tech sector is over-valued and that US public policy is heading into a blind alley. The bond market sentiment we noted in the past month has now spread into the equity markets.And you can see the rising

00:05:14

Rest of world rises while the US on holiday

Economy Watch ·

2025/09/01

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that while financial markets are quiet due to the US Labor Day holiday, the data being reported in the rest of the world is actually very encouraging, especially for the factory sectors.In China, the private Caixin PMI has a new sponsor - RatingDog. It is still produced by S&P

00:07:31

US courts doubt Trump had tariff-tax authority

Economy Watch ·

2025/08/31

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there was an unexpected turn in the US tariff situation late last week.In a dramatic ruling, most of Trump’s global tariffs were declared illegal by a US appeals court that found he exceeded his authority in imposing them. He will almost certainly appeal to his Supreme

00:04:28

Risk aversion fades, risk taking swells

Economy Watch ·

2025/08/28

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets have brushed off the Nvidia result and chosen to extend their risk appetite. The S&P500 is at another new record high. But bond markets aren't so sure this is justified.In the real world, US initial jobless claims were little-changed last week from the prior week, both

00:04:50

Good public policy staggers in the face of Trump...

Economy Watch ·

2025/08/27

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we need to brace for an end to the US Fed's independence. It may not be at risk right now, but the signs aren't promising. And politicians everywhere will seize on the mood to pull that level, to ease their own policies that don't deliver. The juice of monetary stimulus is

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