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PODCAST

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

Patrick McKenzie

We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.

business investing

All Episodes

102:59

Boom, busts, and long term progress with Byrne Hobart

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2024/11/14

By popular demand, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart for a 3rd conversation to discuss Byrne’s book "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation." They explore how periods of irrational market enthusiasm often create lasting value despite their painful endings. Using examples from the 1990s fiber optic boom that enabled modern streaming to today’s AI investment surge, they examine how even when investment manias end badly, they frequently pull forward crucial technological

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37:21

How money moves, with Erik Torenberg

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2024/11/07

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Erik Torenberg, the founder of Turpentine, to discuss the fundamentals of money movement and banking systems. Patrick breaks down how banks facilitate transfers through correspondent accounts and clearinghouses, explaining the evolution from physical check movement to digitization. They cover the gold standard's history, and then dig into stablecoins and their implications for the future of finance.–Full transcript available here:

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87:14

From molecule to medicine, with Ross Rheingans-Yoo

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2024/10/31

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ross Rheingans-Yoo to discuss drug development and clinical trials. Ross breaks down how drugs progress from academic research through FDA approval, the challenging economics, and the many systemic inefficiencies in the current approval process. Patrick and Ross discuss historical cases like the thalidomide crisis that shaped FDA policy, the evolution of accelerated approvals during the AIDS epidemic, and lessons from COVID-19 trials

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78:10

Picking Uncle Sam's pocket, with Jetson Leder-Luis

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2024/10/24

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by economist and fraud researcher Professor Jetson Luis-Leder to examine the systemic issues underlying government program fraud. Jetson and Patrick discuss healthcare fraud cases, including hospice eligibility manipulation and ambulance transport schemes, and other fraud practices against unemployment and the PPP program. The discussion reveals how institutional constraints, technological limitations, and policy design choices create

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88:30

How real estate investing works with Moses Kagan

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2024/10/17

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Moses Kagan, co-founder of Adaptive Realty, ReSeed, and Reconvene. Their deep dive into real estate investing and property management covers the different classes of apartment buildings, the challenges of property management, and the complexities of financing structures in the industry. They examine how the internet has transformed capital raising, the significance of cap rates, the effects of supply and demand on property values, and

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58:34

Telling the tech story

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2024/10/10

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Erik Torenberg, investor and the media entrepreneur behind Turpentine, explore the evolving relationship between tech journalism and the industry it covers. They discuss how fictional portrayals of industries greatly inform how jobseekers understand those industries, and how the industries understand themselves. They cover the vacuum in quality tech reporting, the emergence of independent media companies, and industry heavyweights with massive

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112:36

The hundred-year-old telegram worth $5 million, with...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2024/10/03

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by his father, Jim McKenzie, for an intimate and in depth exploration of commercial real estate development. They unravel the complex web of relationships, regulations, and often absurd situations that shape our built environment. From the intricacies of curb cuts and driveway permits to the art of navigating local politics and lobbyists, the conversation offers a rare glimpse into the hidden mechanisms of urban development. Jim shares the highlights

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86:13

Bits, Bytes, and Burgers with Byrne Hobart

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2024/09/26

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Byrne Hobart, writer of The Diff, for a follow up conversation about “whales” – and so much more – across the gaming, aviation, software, hospitality and fast food industries. Patrick and Byrne also discuss their writing process, knowledge management, and how they use AI tools.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/byrne-hobart-whales-miscellany–Sponsors: Check | WorkOSCheck is the leading payroll infrastructure provider

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82:26

Decisions Nobody Made, policy edition, with Dave Guarino

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2024/09/19

In this episode of Complex Systems, Patrick McKenzie (aka @Patio11) is joined by Dave Guarino, a software engineer and policy wonk. They explore the complexities and challenges of public programs, focusing on SNAP aka CalFresh in California, where Dave was the founding engineer and then director. They discuss how society’s complex preferences become policy, driving obviously bad UXes (like 200+ questions for an application) for structural reasons. Patrick and Dave debate structural issues

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53:12

True Crime, Banking Edition

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2024/09/12

In this episode of Complex System, the tables are turned and media entrepreneur/investor Erik Torenberg interviews Patrick McKenzie (patio11) about the intricacies of the financial system, focusing on banking, money laundering, and regulatory compliance. They discuss several of Patrick’s essays from Bits About Money. Patrick discusses the three stages of money laundering - placement, layering, and integration - and how the financial system has been deputized to act as law enforcement. The

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96:06

That time we accidentally created national healthcare...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2024/09/05

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Dave Kasten, to discuss their experiences building VaccinateCA, a charitable effort that collected, collated, and distributed vaccine distribution information during the COVID-19 pandemic. (If you Googled for the vaccine, the search results likely came from VaccinateCA’s data.) They cover the challenges of rapidly scaling a volunteer-driven organization, the lessons learned about public health infrastructure, the intricacies of

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71:23

The mad science of drilling the earth with Austin Vernon

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2024/08/29

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Austin Vernon, a petroleum engineer, to discuss the technology and economics of fracking. Austin explains the evolution of drilling technology, the financial ecosystem supporting the oil industry – including the unique "doctor and lawyer money" funding model – and the complex interplay of mineral rights laws and state/local politics in the United States. Patrick and Austin also discuss the cross-pollination of technologies between fracking and

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83:56

Balancing control and chaos: cybernetics, fraud, and...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2024/08/22

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Dan Davies, author of Lying for Money, and The Unaccountability Machine. They discuss how cybernetics–the study of control and communication in complex systems–applies to modern organizations and decision-making. Dan and Patrick discuss how organizations change as they grow, financial fraud and its relevance to systems design, and the process of writing nonfiction books. The conversation touches on pathologies like what happens when

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85:18

Energy economics and rocket science with Casey Handmer

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2024/08/15

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Casey Handmer, rocket scientist turned CEO of Terraform Industries. Casey discusses the rapid advancements in solar power, the bureaucratic challenges of NASA, the incomprehensible success of SpaceX, and the evolving energy landscape. Casey touches on his experiences at JPL revealing how the organization’s fear of waste and rigid processes often stifle innovation and efficiency.The conversation then shifts to Terraform Industries' mission to create

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86:22

Bet on it: Zvi Mowshowitz on professional gambling,...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2024/08/08

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Zvi Mowshowitz (TheZvi) to discuss his wide-ranging career as a professional Magic: The Gathering player, sports gambler, equities trader, public intellectual on the covid-19 epidemic, and AI-focused journalist. They go into depth on how trading happens in less formal markets with lessons that resonate in more formal markets. They also explore the fallacies of rational decision-making in large organizations, the significance of

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51:57

Betting on the future via prediction markets, with...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2024/08/01

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Stephen Grugett, a co-founder of Manifold, to discuss prediction markets. They cover how prediction markets work, their efficiency in aggregating information, and why they serve as a minority report against prevailing narratives. They cover past controversies, potential risks, and the philosophical value of prediction markets.–Full transcript available here:

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66:40

Reporting on tech with Kelsey Piper

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2024/07/25

Patrick McKenzie (aka @Patio11) is joined by Kelsey Piper, a journalist for Vox’s Future Perfect. Kelsey recently reported on equity irregularities at OpenAI in May of 2024, leading to an improvement of their policies in this area. We discuss the social function of equity in the technology industry, why the tech industry and reporters have had a frosty relationship the last several years, and more.–Full transcript available here:

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50:45

Writing the first draft of financial history with...

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2024/07/18

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart to discuss Byrne’s vantage point as writer of The Diff, a tech and finance newsletter. Byrne explains the toxicity of the 30-year mortgage, the dynamics of the finance newsletter ecosystem, how rationalist epistemics can be applied to hedge funds, and the joy of learning about an industry from scratch.Full transcript available here.–Sponsor: This podcast is sponsored by Check, the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of

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100:15

How the Smart Money teaches trading with Ricki Heicklen

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2024/07/11

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Ricki Heicklen discuss Ricki’s innovative approaches to teaching trading. Trading is traditionally taught only by practitioners, to practitioners. The curricula that trading firms use are not published externally, to avoid empowering competitors. Ricki explains how she teaches trade mechanics, how markets and traders react to new information, and the security mindset necessary for trading, including protecting sensitive information and avoiding signaling

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85:04

E1: Vincent Woo interviews me on a quirky career

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11) ·

2024/06/21

Vincent Woo interviewed me about my somewhat quirky career history.Highlights:* 5 million words and counting of written output* some minor regrets around two small software businesses* Starfighter and what tech still doesn't get about hiring well* revised thoughts on tech equity* the quirky nature of microcelebrity and being a public intellectual

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80 results

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