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PODCAST

Telltales

An investing podcast + substack for people who want to compound their wealth over the long run and don"t mind sailing analogies telltales.substack.com

business investing

All Episodes

35:47

Trump's 2nd Term, Part 2: Analyzing Big Tech, Chips,...

Telltales ·

2024/11/21

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team continues last week’s discussion on the potential impact of Donald Trump's election victory on pages 1-7 of the memo. They also delve into company-specific news and developments, such as Netflix's live streaming challenges and the future of the semiconductor industry.[00:00:49] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt discusses the potential impact of a Trump administration on the global oil market, particularly in relation to Iran's production and

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32:37

Trump's 2nd Term: Analyzing Retail, Energy, Banks,...

Telltales ·

2024/11/13

In this episode, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence analyze market impacts of the developing Trump administration across various sectors.⏱️ Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:30 - Intro00:00:44 - World Oil Supply/Demand Analysis03:42 - US Gas Demand/Supply Overview04:40 - US Government Revenues and Expenses05:30 - UBER/DASH/ABNB/FIVE/HROW Analysis06:33 - Healthcare Sector (UNH/CVS/REGN/LLY)09:39 - Mining & Energy (FCX/ALB/CF/NEE)13:06 - Restaurant & Hospitality Stocks14:11 - Food

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33:54

Trump Wins 2024 Election - Implications for Energy,...

Telltales ·

2024/11/06

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the implications of Donald Trump's 2024 election victory on healthcare, energy, and technology. They analyze key exhibits and dive into company-specific news and developments.[00:00:57] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Page 1) Hunt expects a Trump administration deal with China to tighten the oil market surplus in 2025 by phasing out Iranian barrels. Despite predictions of peak oil demand, the IEA still forecasts an increase in 2025 versus

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32:16

Netflix vs. YouTube vs. Spotify: The Battle for...

Telltales ·

2024/10/30

SHOWNOTES[00:00:00] Introduction[00:00:57] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/DemandHunt discusses Israel's recent actions and their impact on oil facilities.Analysis of OPEC's plan to increase oil supply by one million barrels per day starting December.Suggestion to monitor oil company stocks for potential investment opportunities.[00:02:47] Exhibit B: U.S. Gas Demand/SupplyExamination of gas demand growth and LNG exports.Discussion on renewable energy's impact on gas demand for power

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34:00

AI Agents: Exploring how Apple, Microsoft, Amazon,...

Telltales ·

2024/10/23

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team dives into the latest developments in AI, analyzing the competitive landscape and opportunities for major tech companies. They also discuss Spotify's business model and moat, and examine the unsustainable U.S. deficit and its potential economic ramifications.[00:34] WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C) Hunt provides an update on the oil market, noting that while the prospect of Israeli missiles directed at Iranian export facilities has supported prices,

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34:03

Tesla's Turbulence: RoboTaxi Unveiled; AlphaFold's...

Telltales ·

2024/10/17

Show NotesIn this episode of Telltales, hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence delve into the latest developments in energy, technology, and healthcare. Join them as they discuss the implications of Tesla's recent announcements, the groundbreaking Nobel Prize win by Google's DeepMind team, and the current state of global oil and gas markets.[00:52] WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C)[05:27] US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Exhibit B)[09:03] US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Exhibit A)[09:35]

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33:30

Microsoft vs The AI Wave: Will Redmond Weather the...

Telltales ·

2024/10/09

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team dives deep into analyzing Microsoft's competitive position and cash flow drivers as the computing world stands on the cusp of an artificial intelligence revolution. Will Microsoft's key profit engines in Office and Windows withstand the AI wave or will the tech giant face disruption?[00:01] Energy & Macro Overview (Exhibits A, B, C) Hunt notes the reduction in oil surplus capacity and the recent uptick in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions between

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34:23

Meta's Magnificent Risks: Battling Apple in the Age...

Telltales ·

2024/10/02

In this episode, the Telltales team dives into the risks facing Meta (formerly Facebook, META 0.00%↑ ) as it navigates a shifting social media landscape and invests heavily in AI and the metaverse. They also discuss the latest healthcare news, including breakthroughs in treating diabetes and sickle cell disease.For earlier episodes in this series, check out:Apple's Underwhelming Reveal: A Sign of Shifting Tides? (e2437)Alphabet's Achilles Heel: Is Google the Next Kodak? (e2438)Examining Amazon's AI

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34:13

Examining Amazon's AI Strategy and Risks (e2439)

Telltales ·

2024/09/27

ShownotesIn this episode of Telltales Podcast, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence explore the cash flow characteristics of companies across sectors like energy, technology, and healthcare. They also provide insights into US government finances, natural gas, and oil markets. Here’s a breakdown of the main topics discussed.[00:32] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply and Demand The hosts discuss how macroeconomic factors and geopolitical changes in Lebanon have temporarily impacted oil prices,

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31:47

Alphabet's Achilles Heel: Is Google the Next Kodak?...

Telltales ·

2024/09/18

In this episode, the Telltales team dives deep into the risks and uncertainties facing Google and its parent company Alphabet as AI technologies like ChatGPT threaten to disrupt its long-standing search business model. Jason shares his concerns that Google could become the next Kodak if it fails to adapt to the AI-powered future of search.[00:08:17] Google's AI Search Dilemma (Page 1) Jason warns that Google's model of 10 blue links for search, which has been around for over 20 years, is vulnerable

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31:00

Apple's Underwhelming Reveal: A Sign of Shifting...

Telltales ·

2024/09/11

In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the latest developments in the energy sector, Apple's lackluster iPhone 16 launch event, and exciting updates from biotech companies Vertex, BioNTech, and Harrow Health.[00:01:05] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Hunt notes that oil is in decline, with China's demand forecast to be flat. Surplus capacity remains at 4M barrels, mostly controlled by the Saudis and Abu Dhabi. He advises waiting or buying half positions in upstream oil companies.[00:01:50]

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30:30

NVIDIA's AI Dominance and the Future of Software (e2436)

Telltales ·

2024/09/04

In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the macro environment, including government finances and energy markets, and debates the investment merits of big tech stocks trading at 30-50x free cash flow. They also dive deep into NVIDIA's leading position in accelerated computing and the potential threats to its dominance.[00:00] Oil & Gas (Exhibits B & C): Hunt opens the discussion by examining the current state of oil and natural gas markets, noting the influence of factors like China's demand

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30:11

Q2 Energy Updates & Risks to Nvidia Data Center...

Telltales ·

2024/08/28

In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the latest developments in energy markets, semiconductor stocks, and biotech. Key topics include Intel's decline due to strategic missteps, NVIDIA's AI leadership and competitive risks, and updates on oil, natural gas, and the U.S. deficit.[00:59] WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C) Hunt notes 4 million barrels per day of spare production capacity, mostly from Saudi Arabia and UAE. If this supply came online, oil prices could drop significantly. Easing

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30:43

Jobs Data Negative Revision and Other Warning Signs:...

Telltales ·

2024/08/21

ShownotesIn this episode, the Telltales Podcast team explores recent developments in healthcare, the importance of founder stories in investing, and potential economic risks on the horizon.[00:00:54] World Oil Supply/Demand (Exhibit C) The Iranian response to recent events in Tehran has been delayed indefinitely, potentially impacting oil prices. The team discusses the ongoing situation between Hamas and Israel, as well as Saudi Arabia and UAE's role in the oil market surplus.[02:29] US Gas

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33:46

From Silicon to Medicine: Trailblazers Shaping...

Telltales ·

2024/08/14

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, we dive into the latest developments in technology, pharmaceuticals, and global markets, exploring the strategies of industry leaders and emerging trends.[00:01:18] World Oil Supply and Demand (Exhibit C) Oil consumption forecasts have been reduced due to slowdowns in China's economy, particularly in construction and infrastructure. The oil price remains stable due to geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Israel. Saudi Arabia and the UAE may increase oil supply to the

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31:17

The Yen Carry Trade Unravels: Market Chaos Explained...

Telltales ·

2024/08/07

ShownotesIn this episode of the Telltales Podcast, hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence explore recent market events, discuss key companies across various sectors, and analyze their cash flow characteristics.[00:00:00] Introduction and Recent News (Exhibit C)Hunt discusses the recent antitrust judgment against Google and its potential impact on Apple. The hosts briefly touch on oil and gas market conditions.[03:21] Natural Gas Market Update (Exhibit B)Hunt provides an overview of

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32:57

Silicon Valley to Wall Street: AI Transformers Unfold...

Telltales ·

2024/07/31

Shownotes00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:56 - Market Update: Oil and Natural Gas• Oil pricing weakening; 4.4 million barrels of excess production capacity not being produced• Saudi Arabia and UAE may increase production in fall, causing near-month prices to drop• Natural gas trading very low due to oversupply; prices expected to improve in winter00:03:10 - U.S. Political Landscape and Budget• Discussion of Vice President Harris• Speculation on expiring Trump tax cuts and their impact on income tax

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32:26

Market Dynamics Decoded: Energy Forecasts, Fiscal...

Telltales ·

2024/07/25

Shownotes00:00 - Introduction00:46 - Oil Market UpdateDiscussion of 2025 oil supply and demand projectionsEstimated 104.5 million barrels per day of supply and demandBreakdown of crude oil vs other liquids in production figuresSaudi Arabia and UAE holding back 3.5 million barrels of surplus productionCaution advised on investing in oil producers currently03:00 - Natural Gas MarketCurrent low prices for natural gas Storage levels 500 BCF above 5-year averagePotential for price improvement later in

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34:01

Cashflow Compass: Navigating Energy, Healthcare, and...

Telltales ·

2024/07/17

Shownotes00:00 - Introduction02:24 - Natural Gas Market UpdateToo much gas in storage causing low near-month pricesWarm weather across US impacting demandPower prices held down by cheap gas pricesChicago City Gate price unusually close to Henry Hub04:01 - US Government FinancesReview of Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts/estimatesDiscussion of accuracy issues with CBO numbersGoal to reduce "all other" spending category to improve debt-to-GDP ratio07:03 - Healthcare Companies ReviewAddition

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33:01

Investing Insights: From Eye Care to Artificial...

Telltales ·

2024/07/10

Shownotes00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:48 - Energy Market UpdateReview of OPEC and IEA supply/demand numbers for 2024Discussion of Saudi Arabia and UAE's production capacity and disciplineNatural gas prices and production updatesLNG export facilities and delays (Freeport, Golden Pass)06:02 - Healthcare Sector DiscussionFTC's 70-page report criticizing pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs)Top 3 PBMs control 80% of prescription flow in USPotential regulatory risks for UnitedHealth, CVS, and CignaVertex and

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