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PODCAST

Telltales

An investing podcast + substack for people who want to compound their wealth over the long run and don"t mind sailing analogies telltales.substack.com

business investing

All Episodes

33:23

The Curve, the Coin, and the Cloud (e2545)

Telltales ·

2025/11/06

SHOWNOTESThis week we connect the dots across oil & gas markets, the rise of dollar-pegged stablecoins, and tech’s CapEx surge—then wrap with healthcare M&A and GLP-1 distribution shifts. Expect sharp takes, real numbers, and what it all means for cash flow and valuation.[00:00] Intro [00:20] Disclaimer [00:30] Exhibit C: Oil—OPEC+ restraint & a flat curve Oil hovers near $60 as OPEC+ (including Russia) keeps supply tight, flattening the forward curve. Limited monthly additions may be enough to hold

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30:38

Blockchains, Blackwell & Barrel Math

Telltales ·

2025/10/29

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, we connect cash-flow mechanics to headlines across energy, technology, and healthcare. We cover the oil/gas setup, a pragmatic tour through Bitcoin’s history, AI chip supply chains, and a potential reset in U.S. drug pricing.[00:00] Intro (p.1)Welcome to Telltales with Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence. Download the weekly Cash Flow Memo to follow along with updated exhibits and company pages.[00:00] Disclaimer - Informational only—do your own work. No

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30:55

From Brent to Broadcom: Cash Flow in a Crosswind (e2544)

Telltales ·

2025/10/23

SHOWNOTESA fast-paced tour through this week’s Exhibits A–C (U.S. finances, natural gas, oil), a history of Broadcom’s rise from spinoff to $1.7T giant, timely healthcare shifts (FDA fast paths, DTP), and quick hits on Tesla, Apple, NVIDIA/AMD, and Netflix’s cash engine.[00:00] Intro (—)Mike, Jason, and Hunt set up the week’s Cash Flow Memo themes across energy, technology, and healthcare, and point listeners to the memo and exhibits.[00:00:20] Disclaimer (—)Standard “not investment advice”

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31:51

Oracle’s Origin Story, AI’s Next Chapter (e2543)

Telltales ·

2025/10/15

This episode blends near-term energy realities with a tour through Oracle’s history and its AI pivot—then zooms out to policy, trade, and the cash-flow engines dominating tech and payments.[00:00] Intro[00:00:20] Disclaimer[00:00:44] Exhibit C: Oil outlook Hunt notes Middle East détente reduces risk premia but isn’t bullish for prices near-term. With Saudi likely to defend share, oil feels “subdued”; if you own quality E&Ps, hold, but wait to add until/if crude dips into the $50s.[00:03:22] Exhibit

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31:45

OpenAI, Oil, and the Almighty Dollar (e2542)

Telltales ·

2025/10/08

SHOWNOTESA brisk, data-driven run through Exhibits A–C (U.S. finances, Natural Gas, Oil), followed by a condensed “History of OpenAI,” semis capacity pinch points, a Tesla check-in, and timely healthcare policy updates.[00:00] Intro [00:47] Exhibit C: Oil—Geopolitics & The Abraham Accords PathDiscussion of a proposed Gaza plan reportedly backed by regional governments and the potential for broader normalization—implications for oil risk premia and global supply/demand. The team underscores how

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30:06

Workin' 9 to 5: From Dolly to Data Centers

Telltales ·

2025/10/01

SHOWNOTESA brisk tour through oil, gas, and U.S. fiscal mechanics, followed by a biotech history chapter and a deep dive on NVIDIA’s sustained dominance. We close with a big healthcare development—“Trump-RX”—and quick hits from Harrow Health’s investor day.[00:00] Intro [00:28] Exhibit C – Oil: $62 is Doing Its Job Hunt frames today’s oil tape: production is rolling off in the U.S., OPEC, and non-OPEC; geopolitical thawing could keep prices soft near term. With Saudi capacity around 12 mb/d and

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33:32

LSD: Liquids, Silicon & Debt (e2540)

Telltales ·

2025/09/24

The Cashflow MemoDownloadSHOWNOTESA fast-moving tour across energy, technology, and healthcare: oil spare capacity looks set to tighten, natural gas loses its backwardation, DC politics and immigration policy enter the chat, we revisit Genentech’s beginnings, and then unpack Apple, Oracle/Broadcom, and NVIDIA through a cash-flow lens.Stick around for a sailing community shout-out from Oakcliff and a healthcare segment weighing Tylenol headlines against mixed evidence.[00:00] Intro[00:19]

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36:05

From Mold Juice to AI Factories (e2539)

Telltales ·

2025/09/18

SHOWNOTESThis episode tackles the week’s cash-flow movers across energy, tech, and healthcare—then time-travels through biopharma’s biggest breakthroughs. We close with practical EV takes, Big Tech updates, and why Mars might be more interesting than the headlines suggest.[00:00] Intro [00:30] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand IEA’s latest revision lifts 2025 demand growth to ~0.7–0.8 mb/d (vs. ~0.4–0.5), implying the surplus could tighten from ~3.3 mb/d toward ~2.0—mostly in Saudi spare capacity

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31:56

From Pasteur to Pay Packages in the Trillions (e2538)

Telltales ·

2025/09/10

SHOWNOTESA brisk, cash-flow-first tour through energy, technology, and healthcare: oil and gas realities, the federal balance sheet, big labor revisions, and the AI build-out—plus biotech’s backstory and fresh FDA/advertising policy moves.[00:00] Intro (n/a)[00:19] DisclaimerReminder that the episode is informational only and not investment advice. Listeners should do their own work and assume no guarantee of completeness or accuracy.[00:30] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Oil pricing “stuck”

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27:04

Search Shake-Up: Google’s Win, AI’s Real Threat (e2536)

Telltales ·

2025/09/03

SHOWNOTESThis week we open with the Google antitrust decision, then dive into Exhibits C (Oil), B (Natural Gas), and A (U.S. finances) before a tech deep-dive on AI capacity, TPUs vs GPUs, and close with healthcare policy shifts.[00:00] Intro[00:38] DisclaimerGeneral investing discussion only; do your own work. Views are the hosts’ alone.[00:51] Exhibit C – Oil (Exhibit C)Geopolitics keeps crude “stuck” around $62–64 with a flat curve (no backwardation). Spare capacity from Saudi/UAE plus tepid

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36:56

Software History Part 7 - AI (e2535)

Telltales ·

2025/08/27

SHOWNOTESA fast-moving episode: Hunt opens with Exhibits C/B/A (oil, gas, U.S. finances), then we sprint through a crisp history of AI from Turing to Transformers before closing on healthcare—Berkshire’s UNH stake and how MFN drug pricing pressures PBMs.[00:00] Intro (—)Welcome to Telltales with Mike, Jason, and Hunt. Grab the weekly Cash Flow Memo and follow along as we hit energy, technology, and healthcare through a cash-flow lens.[00:57] Disclaimer (—)Informational only; do your own work. No

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31:59

Price Tags, Power Bills & GB200s (e2534)

Telltales ·

2025/08/21

SHOWNOTESA wide-ranging tour this week: oil demand vs. spare capacity, U.S. gas and fiscal tracks, and the cloud era’s security shocks that boosted both AWS and CPU demand. We close on healthcare policy, Intel’s maneuvering, Nvidia’s China fee, and what Snowflake/Salesforce/ServiceNow signal for AI ROI.[00:00] IntroMike sets the table for another 30-minute sprint through energy, tech, and healthcare, and points listeners to the Cash Flow Memo for exhibits and company pages.[00:00] DisclaimerStandard

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34:38

Oil Curves, Open Source & Autonomy (e2533)

Telltales ·

2025/08/13

SHOWNOTESA fast tour across energy, technology history, and healthcare—then a spirited debate on Tesla’s path: robotaxis or humanoid robots. Plus: where oil and gas balances sit now, what built Web 2.0, and why some healthcare names look interesting on cash flow.[00:00] Intro Welcome to Telltales with Mike, Jason, and Hunt, setting up a deep dive into energy, technology, and healthcare with the companion Cash Flow Memo. Quick reminder: this conversation is for informational purposes only.[00:00]

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33:43

Gas Gluts, Drug Flops & Software Pops (e2532)

Telltales ·

2025/08/06

This week the Telltales crew unpacks shifting energy fundamentals, tough healthcare headlines, the rise of Web 1.0—and whether Tesla’s robo-taxi dream justifies a half-trillion price tag.[00:00] Intro Mike welcomes listeners, frames the show’s cash-flow focus across energy, tech, and healthcare, and reminds everyone to grab the accompanying memo.[00:47] Exhibit C – World Oil Supply & Demand Hunt revisits OPEC+ production moves, Saudi-U.S. coordination, and secondary sanctions aimed at Russia. He

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32:23

Debt Spirals, DOS, and DoorDash Bots (e2531)

Telltales ·

2025/07/30

In this episode we swing from macro storm clouds to silicon sunshine—probing debt risks, tracing software’s evolution, and spotlighting a Samsung-Tesla chip alliance that could turbocharge robotaxis.[00:00] Intro :00:47] Macro Risk: Could 2008 Happen Again? (Exhibit A)Hunt draws parallels between today’s oil-market risk premium and the 4Q 2008 liquidity freeze. He warns that a repo-market hiccup—not a bond auction failure—could be the trigger, given money-market–fund flight. Jason advocates 7 %

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32:58

WAR Episode: WWII Code Breaking, Ukraine/Iran War Oil...

Telltales ·

2025/07/23

SHOWNOTESThis week we weave through energy geopolitics, U.S. fiscal chess, breakthrough healthcare economics, and the exploding compute demands of frontier AI—plus part 2 of our Software History mini-series.[00:00] Intro [01:04] Oil Market War Premium & Russia Risk (Exhibit C)Hunt explains how secondary sanctions on Russian crude—now part of U.S.–China talks—add a $10-15/bbl war premium. Market oversupply persists, but geopolitical uncertainty keeps Brent in the mid-$60s.[02:22] Natural Gas

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33:40

Energy Shocks, AI Moves, and a Punch Card Past (e2529)

Telltales ·

2025/07/18

SHOWNOTESMike, Jason, and Hunt connect the dots between geopolitics, AI infrastructure, and healthcare policy—always through the lens of cash-flow-focused investing.[00:00] Intro (Cover)Welcome to Telltales and the weekly Cash Flow Memo. Quick rundown of what’s ahead: energy, tech, healthcare, and a short history-of-software segment.[00:00] Oil Supply & the War Premium (Exhibit C)Spare capacity sits near 3 Mb/d, but conflict risks keep Brent in the mid-$60s. Trump’s proposed secondary sanctions on

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31:58

From Doom to DGX: The story of the GPU and Nvidia's...

Telltales ·

2025/07/10

This week Telltales flies from oil barrels to GPUs, showing how energy, technology, and healthcare each reshape an investor’s cash-flow lens.[00:00] Intro[01:00] Exhibit C – Global Oil Balance (Exhibit C)Hunt flags disappointing demand growth (+0.5 Mb/d) against a 3-4 Mb/d spare-capacity cushion. Prices hover near $65 only because Middle-East risk keeps a volatility premium alive.[01:51] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural Gas Outlook (Exhibit B)Dry-gas supply is capped at 106 Bcfd while LNG exports jump 2.5

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31:11

Deficits, Datacenters & Diagnosis (e2527)

Telltales ·

2025/07/02

SHOWNOTESThis week the crew dissects energy demand plateaus, a surprising federal deficit outlook, and why performance-per-watt now rules both hyperscale datacenters and your smartphone—before closing with AI’s domination of medical diagnosis and fresh biotech data.[00:00] Intro [00:00:45] Exhibit C – World Oil Demand & SupplyHunt notes 2025 demand is now expected to edge only 0.5 Mb/d above 2024. Mature regions (U.S., EU, Japan) stay flat, China dips, and “Other Asia” disappoints. Supply wildcards

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30:05

Chips, Chains & Cash Flow (e2526)

Telltales ·

2025/06/25

SHOWNOTESIn Episode 2526 the Telltales crew races through this week’s exhibits, rewinds the semiconductor timeline, and sizes up fresh tech-and-healthcare catalysts—from Tesla’s robotaxis to a federal ruling that shields AI training data.[00:00] Cold Open[00:00:56] Exhibit C – Global Oil BalanceHunt flags his revised crude-supply model: U.S. output unlikely to hit 13 Mb/d, Russia drifting under 9.8 Mb/d, and Saudi barrels rising. A 3–4 Mb/d surplus keeps Brent range-bound as risk premia compress

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237 results

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