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PODCAST

Telltales

An investing podcast + substack for people who want to compound their wealth over the long run and don"t mind sailing analogies telltales.substack.com

business investing

All Episodes

31:06

Oil Shocks, AI Giants, and the Cash Flow Reality Check

Telltales ·

2026/03/04

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team moves from energy geopolitics to mega-cap tech cash flows and healthcare catalysts—through the lens of what actually endures: free cash flow, incentives, and execution.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo setupMike frames the episode’s focus across energy, technology, and healthcare—and points listeners to the memo and exhibits.[00:29] Exhibit C: Oil supply, Iran risk, and what changes (or doesn’t)Hunt walks through how recent Middle East tensions

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44:22

The $300 Genome: A Turning Point in Healthcare

Telltales ·

2026/02/27

Is genetic sequencing the future of healthcare? In this Top Mark Capital Fellow Webinar, Montana Joy breaks down how next-generation sequencing is transforming oncology, infectious disease, prenatal testing, and personalized medicine—and why now may be the inflection point.[00:00] Introduction: The Shift Toward Molecular MedicineMike Nicoletti introduces the webinar and frames the central theme: the move from symptom-based care to genetically informed, personalized treatment strategies.[02:00] The

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34:24

The New Choke Points (e2609)

Telltales ·

2026/02/26

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team digs into the cash flow realities behind energy markets, AI-driven software disruption, and fast-moving healthcare headlines. Plus, they connect the dots between government finances, rates, and the incentives shaping corporate behavior.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo The crew tees up a fast tour through energy, technology, and healthcare using this week’s memo and exhibits.[00:19] Disclaimer Investing discussion for informational purposes

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36:09

The SaaSpocalypse Is Here (e2608)

Telltales ·

2026/02/18

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt move from energy market crosscurrents into an AI-driven “SaaSpocalypse,” then close with high-stakes healthcare updates—from Lilly’s trillion-dollar run to PBM reform and early cancer detection.[00:19] DisclaimerImportant investing and risk disclosure before the discussion begins.[00:29] Exhibit C: Oil, Iran, and Geopolitical RiskCrude holds in the mid-$60s as tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz keep markets on edge. The team weighs

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35:48

China and the Cash Flow Memo: From FedEx to Fed Funds...

Telltales ·

2026/02/11

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team runs through the latest Cash Flow Memo and the three exhibits—U.S. government finances, natural gas, and oil—then closes with the massive Big Tech CapEx wave and what it means for chips, data centers, and geopolitics.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo overview Quick setup on the episode’s focus across energy, technology, and healthcare—and how to use the weekly memo alongside the exhibits.[00:19] Disclaimer Important investing and information-use

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32:32

China, Cash Flow, and the AI Software Shakeout (e2606)

Telltales ·

2026/02/09

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team connects the dots between macro headlines and the Cash Flow Memo—spanning energy markets, Fed policy, AI’s impact on software, and where China creates real business exposure across industries.[00:20] DisclaimerA quick reminder that the discussion is informational only and not investment advice.[00:45] Exhibit C: Oil Market SetupUS–Iran negotiations and potential sanctions relief could add supply, while shifting demand dynamics (including India) shape the

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33:22

Cashflow Pick’em 2026 (part 2, e2605)

Telltales ·

2026/01/29

SHOWNOTESIn this special “Cashflow Pick’em” edition, the team runs through the Cash Flow Memo and drafts the companies they think will grow free cash flow the most (percentage basis). Along the way, they hit the latest in oil and natural gas, then pivot into healthcare policy and the AI-driven semiconductor buildout.[00:32] Disclaimer Investment discussion for informational purposes only; do your own work before making any decisions.[00:42] Exhibits A–C: Oil, Gas, and U.S. Fiscal Process Oil firms

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32:11

Cashflow Pick’em 2026 Part 1 (e2604)

Telltales ·

2026/01/22

SHOWNOTESThis special “Cashflow Pick’em” edition runs a percentage-based free cash flow draft across the memo (pages 1–13), then closes with exhibits on oil, natural gas, and the U.S. budget—plus a healthcare segment featuring GLP-1 dynamics and emerging cancer vaccine data.[00:00] Cashflow Pick’em Format and Ground Rules Host sets the framework: pick the company on each page most likely to grow free cash flow the most on a percentage basis, and keep score versus last year’s predictions.[00:00]

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33:07

Healthcare Shockers, AI Doctors, and a...

Telltales ·

2026/01/14

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt walk through their 2026 surprises across healthcare, tech, and energy—then tie it back to what cash flow investors should actually watch. Expect big calls on pharma M&A, AI in healthcare workflows, macro deficits, and the durability of Nvidia’s profit engine.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo Quick setup on the weekly memo and the focus areas for this episode: energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:25] Disclaimer Standard

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36:32

Tech Shockers for 2026 (e2602)

Telltales ·

2026/01/07

This week on Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt continue their “surprise” predictions for 2026. This week, focusing on tech related surprises. Then they shift into the memo’s exhibits on oil, natural gas, and U.S. government finances. They close with timely healthcare updates and a rapid-fire run through major news on pages 1–4.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales Mike introduces the Cash Flow Memo and previews a fast tour through energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:00] Disclaimer A quick reminder: this

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29:16

5.5 Energy & Macro Surprises for 2026 (e2601)

Telltales ·

2025/12/30

A rapid-fire “surprises for 2026” episode—contrarian macro + energy calls, then quick year-end check-ins for tech and healthcare through a cash-flow lens.[00:20] Disclaimer Informational only, not investment advice.[00:30] Macro & Energy Surprises Framework “Five-and-a-half surprises” for 2026: plausible outcomes that run against consensus.[01:24] Surprise: Debt-to-GNP Falls A scenario where the deficit narrows enough that debt held by the public declines (as % of GNP) by ~1 point.[02:40] Surprise:

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26:16

10ish surprises 2025 review (e2552)

Telltales ·

2025/12/24

This week the team speeds through Exhibits A–C (U.S. finances, natural gas, and oil) before revisiting last year’s “10-ish surprises” and what they signal for 2026 across energy, tech, and healthcare.[00:20] Disclaimer This conversation is for informational purposes only—do your own work before making any investment decision.[00:39] Exhibit C: Oil & the “shadow fleet” Brent rebounds as the U.S. boards a shadow-fleet tanker; the crew discusses how stepped-up enforcement could tighten sanctioned

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29:31

Why Google needs Broadcom, and Nvidia doesn't (e2551)

Telltales ·

2025/12/18

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team runs quickly through the memo’s Exhibits A–C (US finances, natural gas, and oil), then digs into the shifting competitive landscape in AI chips—Google, Nvidia, Broadcom, and the hyperscalers’ next moves.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo A quick setup for a cross-sector episode spanning energy, technology, and healthcare—and a reminder to download the memo.[00:00:20] Disclaimer Important investing and risk disclosures before the discussion

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30:36

AI Chips, Cheap Gas & a Stretched Deficit (e2550)

Telltales ·

2025/12/10

In this episode of the Telltales Podcast, Mike, Hunt, and Jason walk through the latest Cash Flow Memo—from US government finances and energy markets to a deep-dive on Nvidia and the AI data center buildout. They revisit the “Nvidia’s Five Risks” memo 18 months later and ask what could still derail the story for investors focused on cash flow.[00:00] Welcome & what’s in the Cash Flow MemoMike kicks off the episode with the usual Telltales introduction, highlights the Cash Flow Memo, and sets up a

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30:34

Don’t Call It a Comeback: Google Ships AI (e2549)

Telltales ·

2025/12/04

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt break down the big moving pieces across energy, technology, and healthcare—anchored by the latest Cash Flow Memo and the three macro exhibits. The centerpiece: Alphabet’s “comeback,” what really changed inside Google, and where AI may go next.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo[00:20] Disclaimer[00:31] Exhibit C: Oil and geopoliticsHunt frames oil’s near-term setup through the lens of Russia/Ukraine developments and what that could

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32:37

The Platform War Apple Lost (e2548)

Telltales ·

2025/11/26

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt walk through the latest Cash Flow Memo, from global oil and gas balances and U.S. deficits to Big Tech’s AI platform war and key healthcare and biotech updates. It’s a tour of where cash is really being earned today in energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:00] Welcome, disclaimer & how to use the Cash Flow MemoMike kicks things off with the Telltales framework, a reminder to download the memo at telltales.us, and the usual “do your own

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27:46

Apple’s Gemini Bet, Nvidia’s Cash Gusher & The GLP-1...

Telltales ·

2025/11/20

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of the Telltales Podcast, Mike, Jason and Hunt walk through the latest Cash Flow Memo, tying together US fiscal policy, oil and gas fundamentals, and the cash-hungry AI build-out at Apple, Amazon, Nvidia and more. They also dive into GLP-1 pricing wars, ophthalmology upstarts, and how post-COVID cash piles are being spent in biotech.[00:00] Welcome, format & Cash Flow Memo overview[00:20] Quick disclaimer (informational only)[00:30] Exhibit C – Oil demand, OPEC and a

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33:43

The Rise of TSMC & Substrate's Vision For the Future...

Telltales ·

2025/11/13

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of the Telltales Podcast, Mike, Jason, and Hunt walk through the weekly Cash Flow Memo: oil, gas, and US government finances, then dive deep into Taiwan Semiconductor’s history and the future of chip manufacturing, before closing with tech headlines and high-impact healthcare updates. Along the way they connect physics, policy, and business models back to cash flows and the durability of different franchises.[00:00] Intro[00:20] Disclaimer[00:30] Exhibit C: Oil Demand Slows,

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33:23

The Curve, the Coin, and the Cloud (e2545)

Telltales ·

2025/11/06

SHOWNOTESThis week we connect the dots across oil & gas markets, the rise of dollar-pegged stablecoins, and tech’s CapEx surge—then wrap with healthcare M&A and GLP-1 distribution shifts. Expect sharp takes, real numbers, and what it all means for cash flow and valuation.[00:00] Intro [00:20] Disclaimer [00:30] Exhibit C: Oil—OPEC+ restraint & a flat curve Oil hovers near $60 as OPEC+ (including Russia) keeps supply tight, flattening the forward curve. Limited monthly additions may be enough to hold

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30:38

Blockchains, Blackwell & Barrel Math

Telltales ·

2025/10/29

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, we connect cash-flow mechanics to headlines across energy, technology, and healthcare. We cover the oil/gas setup, a pragmatic tour through Bitcoin’s history, AI chip supply chains, and a potential reset in U.S. drug pricing.[00:00] Intro (p.1)Welcome to Telltales with Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence. Download the weekly Cash Flow Memo to follow along with updated exhibits and company pages.[00:00] Disclaimer - Informational only—do your own work. No

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255 results

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