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PODCAST

Telltales

by Top Mark Capital

An investing podcast + substack for people who want to compound their wealth over the long run and don"t mind sailing analogies telltales.substack.com

business investing

All Episodes

10:22

Telltales Weekend Update (Pilot W2616)

Telltales ·

2026/04/20

OPENING DISCLAIMER — 0:00AVA: The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you.COLD OPEN — 0:15AVA: You’re listening to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot.MARCUS: And I’m Marcus Graham. Every Saturday we walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next week — across the eighty-nine companies in the Cash Flow Memo. No filler. AVA: Quick note before we start. This is a

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34:04

Is Microsoft the Next Intel — or the OS for AI...

Telltales ·

2026/04/15

This week on Telltales: we work through Hormuz's impact on oil and gas, the federal deficit's interest-rate squeeze, and then spend most of the hour on the dominant-company question — from Lilly and Nvidia to the real debate: is Microsoft a value trap or the operating system for the agent era?[00:00] Cold Open & Memo SetupMike opens the episode and points listeners to the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us — 20 pages covering energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:22] Iran, Hormuz, and the Energy

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30:45

From Bankruptcy to $100B FCF (e2615)

Telltales ·

2026/04/08

NVIDIA has evolved from a near-bankrupt GPU maker into the most dominant force in computing infrastructure. This week we unpack the "process power" framework that explains why, and ask whether Eli Lilly can replicate the same playbook in pharma.[00:00] Exhibit C: Oil Markets & Iran CeasefireIf the ceasefire holds, global production declines ~1M bbl/day. Demand stays flat at 103M. Average oil price for the rest of 2026 likely lands around $80. Higher oil prices paradoxically push nat gas lower via

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35:14

Apple at 50, Oil at a Crossroads (e2614)

Telltales ·

2026/04/01

This week’s Telltales Podcast moves from geopolitics to technology to healthcare, connecting the latest market headlines back to cash flow, capital allocation, and competitive advantage. Mike, Jason, and Hunt discuss how energy risk, AI spending, and pharma dealmaking could shape investors’ thinking in the months ahead.[00:00] Opening and memo overviewMike opens the episode by framing the discussion around energy, technology, and healthcare, with references to the Cash Flow Memo and the weekly

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34:35

From Oil Risk Premiums to Cancer Vaccines (e2613)

Telltales ·

2026/03/25

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of Telltales, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence unpack the latest Cash Flow Memo across energy, technology, and healthcare. The conversation ranges from Iran-driven oil risk and natural gas pricing to AI infrastructure demand, semiconductor inputs, and the long-term investment case for cancer therapies.[00:00] Energy outlook after the Iran conflict Hunt opens with Exhibit C, explaining why he now sees oil supply tightening slightly versus prior expectations

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33:27

20 Million Barrels and No Way Out (e2612)

Telltales ·

2026/03/18

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, Hunt, Mike, and Jason break down the most consequential disruption to global energy markets in decades — the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — and what it means for oil prices, capital markets, and portfolio positioning. The conversation then pivots to AI agents, harness engineering, and the structural shift in how companies will operate.[00:00] **Strait of Hormuz Closure and Oil Market Impact**Hunt walks through the mechanics of losing ~20 million barrels

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33:14

The Most Dangerous Chokepoint in Energy (e2611)

Telltales ·

2026/03/11

In this episode of Telltales, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence analyze global energy markets, the cash flow profiles of the world’s largest technology companies, and key developments in biotech and healthcare investing.[00:00] IntroductionMike introduces the episode and the Cash Flow Memo, which tracks financials across major companies and macro exhibits covering U.S. government finances, oil, and natural gas.[00:29] Oil Markets and Iran TensionsHunt explains how geopolitical

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31:06

Oil Shocks, AI Giants, and the Cash Flow Reality Check

Telltales ·

2026/03/04

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team moves from energy geopolitics to mega-cap tech cash flows and healthcare catalysts—through the lens of what actually endures: free cash flow, incentives, and execution.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo setupMike frames the episode’s focus across energy, technology, and healthcare—and points listeners to the memo and exhibits.[00:29] Exhibit C: Oil supply, Iran risk, and what changes (or doesn’t)Hunt walks through how recent Middle East tensions

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44:22

The $300 Genome: A Turning Point in Healthcare

Telltales ·

2026/02/27

Is genetic sequencing the future of healthcare? In this Top Mark Capital Fellow Webinar, Montana Joy breaks down how next-generation sequencing is transforming oncology, infectious disease, prenatal testing, and personalized medicine—and why now may be the inflection point.[00:00] Introduction: The Shift Toward Molecular MedicineMike Nicoletti introduces the webinar and frames the central theme: the move from symptom-based care to genetically informed, personalized treatment strategies.[02:00] The

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34:24

The New Choke Points (e2609)

Telltales ·

2026/02/26

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team digs into the cash flow realities behind energy markets, AI-driven software disruption, and fast-moving healthcare headlines. Plus, they connect the dots between government finances, rates, and the incentives shaping corporate behavior.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo The crew tees up a fast tour through energy, technology, and healthcare using this week’s memo and exhibits.[00:19] Disclaimer Investing discussion for informational purposes

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36:09

The SaaSpocalypse Is Here (e2608)

Telltales ·

2026/02/18

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt move from energy market crosscurrents into an AI-driven “SaaSpocalypse,” then close with high-stakes healthcare updates—from Lilly’s trillion-dollar run to PBM reform and early cancer detection.[00:19] DisclaimerImportant investing and risk disclosure before the discussion begins.[00:29] Exhibit C: Oil, Iran, and Geopolitical RiskCrude holds in the mid-$60s as tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz keep markets on edge. The team weighs

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35:48

China and the Cash Flow Memo: From FedEx to Fed Funds...

Telltales ·

2026/02/11

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team runs through the latest Cash Flow Memo and the three exhibits—U.S. government finances, natural gas, and oil—then closes with the massive Big Tech CapEx wave and what it means for chips, data centers, and geopolitics.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo overview Quick setup on the episode’s focus across energy, technology, and healthcare—and how to use the weekly memo alongside the exhibits.[00:19] Disclaimer Important investing and information-use

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32:32

China, Cash Flow, and the AI Software Shakeout (e2606)

Telltales ·

2026/02/09

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team connects the dots between macro headlines and the Cash Flow Memo—spanning energy markets, Fed policy, AI’s impact on software, and where China creates real business exposure across industries.[00:20] DisclaimerA quick reminder that the discussion is informational only and not investment advice.[00:45] Exhibit C: Oil Market SetupUS–Iran negotiations and potential sanctions relief could add supply, while shifting demand dynamics (including India) shape the

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33:22

Cashflow Pick’em 2026 (part 2, e2605)

Telltales ·

2026/01/29

SHOWNOTESIn this special “Cashflow Pick’em” edition, the team runs through the Cash Flow Memo and drafts the companies they think will grow free cash flow the most (percentage basis). Along the way, they hit the latest in oil and natural gas, then pivot into healthcare policy and the AI-driven semiconductor buildout.[00:32] Disclaimer Investment discussion for informational purposes only; do your own work before making any decisions.[00:42] Exhibits A–C: Oil, Gas, and U.S. Fiscal Process Oil firms

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32:11

Cashflow Pick’em 2026 Part 1 (e2604)

Telltales ·

2026/01/22

SHOWNOTESThis special “Cashflow Pick’em” edition runs a percentage-based free cash flow draft across the memo (pages 1–13), then closes with exhibits on oil, natural gas, and the U.S. budget—plus a healthcare segment featuring GLP-1 dynamics and emerging cancer vaccine data.[00:00] Cashflow Pick’em Format and Ground Rules Host sets the framework: pick the company on each page most likely to grow free cash flow the most on a percentage basis, and keep score versus last year’s predictions.[00:00]

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33:07

Healthcare Shockers, AI Doctors, and a...

Telltales ·

2026/01/14

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt walk through their 2026 surprises across healthcare, tech, and energy—then tie it back to what cash flow investors should actually watch. Expect big calls on pharma M&A, AI in healthcare workflows, macro deficits, and the durability of Nvidia’s profit engine.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo Quick setup on the weekly memo and the focus areas for this episode: energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:25] Disclaimer Standard

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36:32

Tech Shockers for 2026 (e2602)

Telltales ·

2026/01/07

This week on Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt continue their “surprise” predictions for 2026. This week, focusing on tech related surprises. Then they shift into the memo’s exhibits on oil, natural gas, and U.S. government finances. They close with timely healthcare updates and a rapid-fire run through major news on pages 1–4.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales Mike introduces the Cash Flow Memo and previews a fast tour through energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:00] Disclaimer A quick reminder: this

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29:16

5.5 Energy & Macro Surprises for 2026 (e2601)

Telltales ·

2025/12/30

A rapid-fire “surprises for 2026” episode—contrarian macro + energy calls, then quick year-end check-ins for tech and healthcare through a cash-flow lens.[00:20] Disclaimer Informational only, not investment advice.[00:30] Macro & Energy Surprises Framework “Five-and-a-half surprises” for 2026: plausible outcomes that run against consensus.[01:24] Surprise: Debt-to-GNP Falls A scenario where the deficit narrows enough that debt held by the public declines (as % of GNP) by ~1 point.[02:40] Surprise:

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26:16

10ish surprises 2025 review (e2552)

Telltales ·

2025/12/24

This week the team speeds through Exhibits A–C (U.S. finances, natural gas, and oil) before revisiting last year’s “10-ish surprises” and what they signal for 2026 across energy, tech, and healthcare.[00:20] Disclaimer This conversation is for informational purposes only—do your own work before making any investment decision.[00:39] Exhibit C: Oil & the “shadow fleet” Brent rebounds as the U.S. boards a shadow-fleet tanker; the crew discusses how stepped-up enforcement could tighten sanctioned

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29:31

Why Google needs Broadcom, and Nvidia doesn't (e2551)

Telltales ·

2025/12/18

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team runs quickly through the memo’s Exhibits A–C (US finances, natural gas, and oil), then digs into the shifting competitive landscape in AI chips—Google, Nvidia, Broadcom, and the hyperscalers’ next moves.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo A quick setup for a cross-sector episode spanning energy, technology, and healthcare—and a reminder to download the memo.[00:00:20] Disclaimer Important investing and risk disclosures before the discussion

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262 results

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