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Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

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14:50

South Africa’s agricultural economic performance in...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/07/08

I view South Africa’s agricultural economic performance in the first half of 2024 as mixed. One can broadly categorise our farming economy into three subsectors: horticulture, livestock and field crops.Horticulture — fruits and vegetables — had a reasonably positive start to the year, benefiting from improved dam levels for irrigation and a stable electricity supply. All of South Africa’s fruit and vegetables are under irrigation. The livestock industry is recovering after an intense period of

14:38

South Africa's summer grains and oilseed production...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/07/01

South Africa's summer grains and oilseed harvest is in full swing nationwide, and some crops are nearly complete. Thus, the crop size estimates we have at hand are unlikely to change much and possibly represent an actual picture of the harvest. For example, this afternoon, the Crop Estimates Committee lifted the 2023/24 summer grains and oilseed harvest by 0,6% from last month to 16,0 million tonnes. Still, this is down 20% year-on-year, reflecting the severe impact of the mid-summer drought. The

21:00

Achieving inclusive growth in South Africa's...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/06/25

The SA agriculture sector is not immune to politics. Agriculture is a vital sector of the economy. This explains why it earned special attention in the National Development Plan (NDP), with an entire chapter, Chapter Six, dedicated to it. Recently, there have also been pragmatic plans such as the Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan (AAMP) that set out practical steps to realize a vision to grow the sector and bolster its global competitiveness while achieving inclusion and transformation

15:34

SA sees a 20% rise in agricultural trade surplus in...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/06/18

The collaboration between Transnet, organised business and agriculture sector stakeholders to improve efficiency at SA ports must go on. Efficient logistics are the lifeblood of SA agriculture and other exporting sectors of the economy. Admittedly, the deciduous fruit industry faced many challenges at the Port of Cape Town at the start of 2024 related to delays that proved costly to farming businesses. Still, continuous collaboration to ensure improvements is the only viable path forward. We are

11:45

SA’s agricultural fortunes improved in the first...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/06/10

After publishing a sharp contraction of -12,2% year-on-year in 2023 of the agricultural gross value-added performance, Statistics South Africa revised the figures to a mild contraction of -4,8% year-on-year. This revised figure is roughly in line with the expectations of various researchers, most notably the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP).Importantly, South Africa's agricultural gross value added grew by 13,5% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of 2024

13:36

SA's summer grains and oilseed production estimate...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/06/03

We appreciate that the minds of many South Africans are on national elections matters, but food matters remain vital in the midst of all. Thus, reflecting on the latest Crop Estimates Committee's (CEC) forecasts for the 2023/24 summer crop production season is valuable. This is a fourth production estimate for the season, and the harvest across the country is underway, so we may put more weight on the accuracy of this figure than our tentative view in the previous estimates. At the end of May

12:52

Jobs in South African farming sector

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/05/27

While South Africa's agriculture has had a rough start to the year, characterised by El Niño-induced drought, the employment conditions remain encouraging. The data recently released by Statistics South Africa shows that employment in primary agriculture lifted by 6% year-on-year to 941,000 in the first quarter of 2024. This is also up 2% from the last quarter of 2023. Admittedly, the significant drought damage has been concentrated on the summer grains and oilseed regions, not across all

12:47

South Africa ends an excellent maize export season

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/05/20

April marked the end of South Africa's 2023/24 marketing year for maize. This marketing year corresponds with the 2022/23 production season, as the crop harvested mid-year in 2023 was marketed from then through to the end of April 2024. According to data from the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC), the 2022/23 production season was characterized by an excellent harvest of 16,4 million tonnes. This was because of large plantings and the favourable summer rainfall that boosted the yields. The ample

11:50

SA agriculture should explore trade opportunities...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/05/13

Export opportunities for South Africa's agricultural products are opening up within BRICS+ countries. Over the past two years, China, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and Egypt have widened market access for various agricultural products from South Africa. Admittedly, Egypt and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have recently joined the BRICS+ grouping, and market access is part of the long-term bilateral engagements with South Africa. South Africa has access to selected fruits, wine, wool, meat and grains.

12:56

South Africa's summer crop production estimate has...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/05/06

Many, including myself, may have been a bit pessimistic about the 2023/24 summer crop growing conditions when we signalled a potential further downward revision of the harvest estimate this month. The data released last week by the Crop Estimates Committee showed mild upward adjustments in the crop size from last month's figures. South Africa's 2023/24 summer grains and oilseed harvest is estimated at 16,0 million tonnes, up 1% from last month. Indeed, this is not a cause for celebration. The

12:41

Farming for 30 years in a democratic South Africa

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/04/29

There are divergent views about the effectiveness and extent to which South Africa's agricultural policies have been implemented. Regardless of how experts feel about the capacity of the state and the policy stance of the South African government since the dawn of democracy, the one undeniable fact is that the sector has grown tremendously. Data from the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development show that domestic agricultural output in 2022/23 was twice as much as in

11:25

Recent rains in South Africa will improve grazing...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/04/22

South Africa has experienced two months of extremely dry and hot weather — February and March. The impact of harsh weather conditions on agriculture across the country is visible through crop failures. The 2023/24 summer grain and oilseed production is down 21% year-on-year, estimated at 15.8 million tonnes. We are now at an advanced stage of crop development where there would be minimal to no improvement, even if it rains. Indeed, if one reflects on the past few days, we have received some

13:33

SA red meat and wool exports are recovering

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/04/15

The past two years presented major challenges for the South African livestock industry. The spread of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) and higher feed costs were the two major factors that weighed on their business. As farmers, various feedlots, and the government worked to control the spread of the FMD, the impact was deepening on the revenues of farming businesses as they suddenly had to limit the movement of animals, and various export markets were temporarily closed. In the case of the beef

12:47

SA starts its winter crop season with some...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/04/08

This month, we will have farmers in the Western Cape likely begin to prepare the soil for the 2024/25 winter crop production season by the end of April into May. Other major winter crop-producing provinces, such as Free State, Limpopo and the Northern Cape, will likely start around the end of May. The production of winter crops outside the Western Cape has sizable irrigation support. These regions should benefit from the relatively higher dam levels from the early summer rainfall. In major

11:53

South Africa’s summer crop production prospects...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/04/02

Since the release of the previous report of South Africa's Crop Estimate Committee (CEC) at the end of February 2024, the weather conditions across the country have remained unfavourable. Thus, we are not surprised that the CEC further lowered its production forecasts for South Africa's summer grain and oilseeds this afternoon. The CEC now forecasts South Africa's 2023/24 total grain and oilseeds production at 15.8 million tonnes, down 9% from last month and 21% lower than last season's harvest

12:40

The global grain and oilseeds supplies remain...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/03/25

While the summer grain and oilseeds production prospects for the 2023/24 season seem bleak in Southern Africa because of the excessive dryness and heatwave, the global production conditions remain reasonably optimistic. On March 14, the International Grains Council (IGC) released its monthly update of the 2023/24 global grain and oilseeds production, with some upside adjustments for significant crops. For example, the 2023/24 global maize harvest forecast at 1,2 billion tonnes, up 6% year-on-year

12:22

South Africa’s food inflation risks amid the drought

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/03/18

The damaging effects of persistent dryness and heatwave in South Africa's summer crop-growing regions have raised concerns about a possible rise in consumer food inflation in the coming months. With South Africa's food price inflation averaging 11% in 2023 (from 9.5% in 2022, 6.5% in 2021, and 4.8% in 2020), which was relatively high compared with recent periods, talk of further upside pressure in inflation comes as an unwelcome development. However, the underlying drivers of the increase in food

13:18

Southern Africa’s agriculture is struggling with...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/03/11

South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe have recently published reports indicating a potential decline in grain harvest because of intense El Niño-induced dryness. These developments could put the entire Southern African maize supply chain at risk, with Zambia and South Africa hard hit by heatwaves and dryness. The neighbouring small producers such as Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho and Namibia are also struggling with dryness.Given that South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe are among the largest maize

12:42

SA agricultural exports reach a record US$13.2 billion

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/03/04

Despite all the challenges at the ports and various export markets, the South African agricultural sector has continued to realize excellent export activity. Total agricultural exports reached a new record of US$13.2 billion in 2023, up 3% from the previous year. This is stronger than our earlier expectations of a modest export activity this year. The products that dominated the export list were citrus, maize, apples and pears, nuts, wine, soybeans, sugar, wool, grapes, berries, avocados and fruit

13:35

SA farm jobs up 7% year-on-year

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/02/26

Wandile Sihlobo unpacks the latest agriculture trends and statistics in this podcast.After a notable jump in the third quarter of 2023 to 956,000, South Africa's primary agricultural employment fell by 4% quarter-on-quarter to 920,000 in the last quarter of 2023. Jobs declined mainly in the Eastern Cape, Western Cape, Gauteng, Mpumalanga and Limpopo. Wandile Sihlobo website

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