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PODCAST

More or Less

Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life

science mathematics

All Episodes

8:57

Uncertainty, probability and double yoked eggs

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2024/10/12

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter is one of the great communicators of probability and uncertainty. His new book, The Art of Uncertainty, explains how to approach uncertainty, luck, probability and ignorance. Tim Harford talks to Sir David about double yoked eggs, the Bay of Pigs, and his top tips for politicians who want to communicate evidence and uncertainty. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: John Scott Editor: Richard Vadon

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27:55

Should the government target persnuffle?

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2024/10/09

Are childhood obesity rates going down? Do 35 million birds die every year in the UK after hitting windows? How much money could the Chancellor find by changing the debt rule? And Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter contemplates the probability of his own conception.Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news, and in life. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte MacDonald Producers: Bethan Ashmead Latham, Natasha Fernandes and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production

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10:13

Are 672 billion pounds of corn eaten in the US every...

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2024/10/05

National Geographic magazine recently wrote that “people in the United States eat more than 672 billion pounds of corn per year, which breaks down to more than 2,000 pounds per person annually”.Is this really true? Tim Harford investigates all the things that we don’t eat, that are counted in this number. Presenter: Tim HarfordProducer: Bethan Ashmead Latham Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

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28:42

How do you breed seventeen octillion rats?

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2024/10/02

Are GPs really working less hours per week?Does Wetherspoons really pay one in every £1000 of tax in the UK? Are more people in the UK economically inactive? How long does it take two rats to produce 17 octillion rats?Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Natasha Fernandes and Bethan Ashmead-Latham Producer: Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon

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8:58

The puzzles you’re meant to get wrong

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2024/09/28

Why do some puzzles make us immediately leap to the wrong conclusion?That’s the subject of Alex Bellos’ new book Think Twice, which has page after page of questions designed to deceive.Alex sets Tim Harford some of his favourite puzzles. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison and Janet Staples Sound mix: Donald MacDonald Editor: Richard Vadon

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28:37

Could the winter fuel cut cost more than it saves?

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2024/09/25

The government is encouraging pensioners to claim pension credit in order to remain eligible for winter fuel payments. Will people sign up - and might that end up costing the exchequer more than it saves?The Office for National Statistics has downgraded the status of a new statistic aiming to measure how many people are transgender. What went wrong?Cancer appears to be on the rise in people under 50. But are more people dying?And try your hand at a puzzle you’re likely to get wrong.Tim Harford

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10:00

Do 85% of the world’s population practice a religion?

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2024/09/21

We don’t usually do god on More or Less, but one listener got in touch to ask us to investigate a stat used by an Anglican priest on a BBC radio programme. Speaking on the “Thought for the Day” slot, Reverend Lucy Winkett said that around 85% of the world's population practice a religion. Is this true? We speak to Conrad Hackett, from the Pew Research Center, and the person whose research is the source for the claim.Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Natasha Fernandes Series producer: Tom Colls

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28:50

How do you count millionaires?

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2024/09/18

Can we be sure that thousands of millionaires are leaving the UK?How much do asylum seekers cost the state? Who will win a geeky bet on private school pupil numbers? What does a string quartet teach us about the woes of the National Health Service?Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Caroline Bayley, Natasha Fernandes and Bethan Ashmead-Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor:

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8:59

Nate Silver: Do risk-takers run the world?

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2024/09/14

Big stakes poker player and elections analyst Nate Silver is no stranger to a calculated risk. In his new book, On The Edge, he makes the case that people willing to take massive calculated risks are winning in the modern economy. Tim Harford talks to Nate about the mindset that’s driving hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and silicon valley investors.Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Nigel

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27:42

How long does it take to turn around an oil tanker?

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2024/09/11

Do illegal migrants receive more in benefits than pensioners?Was Energy Secretary Ed Miliband right to celebrate a “record breaking” renewable energy auction? Is one divided by zero infinity? Why don’t we spend more on evidence that government spending works? And how long does it actually take to turn around an oil tanker?Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Natasha Fernandes, Bethan Ashmead-Latham and Nathan

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8:58

Who pays when trade wars heat up?

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2024/09/07

Donald Trump wants new tariffs on goods coming into the US, describing them as a tax on other countries. The Democrats are no stranger to trade tariffs themselves, with Joe Biden having added them to numerous goods coming into the US from China.We talk to Erica York from the Tax Foundation about how tariffs work and who ends up paying for them.Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Kate Lamble and Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Steve

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28:53

Exclusions, black holes and dividing by zero

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2024/09/04

Do half of children in Wales have special educational needs?Are permanent exclusions at the highest ever level in England? Labour are talking about a £22bn black hole. Is that a new black hole in the finances? Are there more Ghanaian nurses in the UK than in Ghana? Can you divide one by zero?Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news.Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Kate Lamble and Nathan Gower Producer: Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie

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9:02

Where have Cuba’s people gone?

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2024/08/31

The Cuban government has announced that their population has fallen by 10% in two years – just days after a demographer on the Caribbean island suggested an even bigger fall. But which is the right number, and why are so many people leaving? We speak to Dr Emily Morris from University College London and Dr Jorge Duany from the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University.Presenter: Kate LambleProducer: Beth Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie

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8:58

Do we eat a credit card's worth of microplastic each...

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2024/08/24

The claim we all swallow 5.5 grams of microplastic each week – the same as the weight of a credit card – has been repeated by charities, newspapers and the World Economic Forum. But when you understand how this number was calculated, and the range of possible answers for the amount of plastic you eat, you might not want to repeat it yourself. Professor Jamie Woodward from the University of Manchester explains what’s what. Presenter: Kate LambleProducer: Beth Ashmead Latham Researcher: Ajai Singh

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8:57

Are companies making more money from their customers?

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2024/08/17

Recent reports claimed the average global mark-up, the difference between the price of production and the price that product is sold for, rose from 7% in 1980 to 59% by 2020.So is this true? Are some companies choosing to charge us more than ever for their products?We investigate the accuracy of these claims, and which companies are responsible with the help of Jan Eeckhout a Professor of Economics at Pompeu Fabra University in BarcelonaPresenter: Kate LambleProducer: Beth Ashmead Latham

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10:42

Is planet Earth getting greener?

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2024/08/10

Canadian psychologist and culture war commentator Jordan Peterson says planet Earth has got 20% greener in the last 20 years. But satellite data tells a different story. We investigate the correct number, with the help of Dr Chi Chen, from Rutgers University in the US.Presenter: Kate LambleSeries producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Fenton-Smith

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9:49

Does a language die every two weeks?

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2024/08/03

Researchers have catalogued 7,164 languages spoken around the world - some are used daily by billions. Half are spoken by less than 8000 people. The death of a language, when it’s no longer spoken as a first language by anyone living is a deeply significant moment in the cultural life of communities. Multiple sources including the UN and National Geographic magazine have claimed this happens every two weeks. But we have reasons to be suspicious about that statistic.Gary Simons, executive editor

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12:59

Are women 14 times more likely to die in natural...

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2024/07/27

The idea that women outnumber men by 14 to 1 as casualties of natural disasters has been repeated in newspapers and online for years - the UN have even used this statistic.But when you track down the source, the research behind this claim leaves much to be desired.Presenter: Kate LambleSeries producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Fenton-Smith

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10:04

Is increasing turbulence making flying more dangerous?

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2024/07/20

Is climate change making turbulence more dangerous for people taking flights around the world? That’s what one listener asked, following a terrifying turbulence incident which left one person dead and more than 20 injured on a flight to Singapore.We speak to turbulence expert Paul Williams, Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading, to understand what is going on.Presenter: Kate LambleProducer: Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound

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8:59

Federer’s 54%: Tennis stats explained

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2024/07/13

How can tennis star Roger Federer have won only 54% of the points he played, but been the best player in the world?Jeff Sackmann, the tennis stats brain behind tennisabstract.com, explains to Tim Harford how probability works in the sport.Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Debbie Richford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Nigel Appleton Editor: Richard Vadon

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1,052 results

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