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Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life

science mathematics

All Episodes

8:58

Trump tariffs: All about the deficits

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2025/04/04

US President Donald Trump has announced sweeping tariffs on global trade, adding taxes of as much as 50% to imports from some countries. The tariffs, he says, are “reciprocal” – calculated to address currency manipulation and trade barriers that other countries place on the US. However, when you look at how the new tariffs were actually calculated, that claim does not add up. Tim Harford speaks to Thomas Sampson, an associate professor at the London School of Economics, to understand what is going

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26:35

Is one in four people in the UK disabled?

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2025/04/02

Donald Trump is raising tariffs on Canada, but has his northern neighbour done anything to deserve them?In her Spring Statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that the UK’s fiscal “headroom” was, again, £9.9bn. We explore this curious coincidence.Is it true that one in four people in the UK is disabled? And what does that mean for the state of our workforce?Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.Presenter: Tim HarfordReporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nathan Gower Series

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8:58

What’s Trump’s problem with Canada?

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2025/03/29

Neighbours, everybody needs good neighbours, and since the end of the Second World War that’s exactly what the US and Canada have been. They’ve enjoyed free trade agreements, close knit economic ties - and not so friendly ice hockey matches. But recently this relationship has soured, with President Trump calling them “one of the nastiest countries to deal with”. It looks like the era of mostly free trade is over, with a raft of tariffs set to come into force on April the 2nd, or “liberation day”

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28:54

Could a 2% wealth tax raise £24bn?

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2025/03/26

Some Labour politicians have been calling for a wealth tax, claiming a 2% tax could raise £24bn. Where are the numbers from and do they add up? A listener asked why housing in the UK is the oldest in Europe. We explain what’s going on. The Office for National Statistics has changed how it measures the value of pensions and knocked £2 trillion off its estimates of wealth. Not everyone thinks it was a good change. We find out why.And Lent is here, but how long is the Christian fasting period? We look

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8:58

What are the chances of an asteroid hitting earth in...

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2025/03/22

On 27 December 2024, astronomers spotted an asteroid that was potentially heading towards earth.Named 2024 YR4, it was estimated to be between 40m and 90m across, with the potential to cause massive damage if it hit a populated area of the planet.The chances of that happening, however, seemed to fluctuate significantly - ranging from 1% to a peak of 3%, before falling to virtually zero. Tim Harford investigates what was going on, with the help of Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at

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28:42

Why are more people claiming disability benefits?

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2025/03/19

More working age people are claiming disability benefits. What's driving the trend?Is it true that the UK imprisons more people for their social media posts than Russia does?One of the country’s most important data sources has been falling apart. We find out why.Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.Presenter: Tim HarfordReporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nathan Gower Series producers: Charlotte McDonald and Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James

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41:54

How did lockdown impact children?

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2025/03/17

In March 2020, the covid pandemic forced the UK into lockdown. Schools closed, universities went online and the economy shut down.It slowly became clear that young people were not falling victim to the virus in significant numbers - they made up a fraction of a percent of the overall death toll.But their lives were radically changed - most spending these formative ages stuck at home as the pandemic raged. Politicians and academics worried about the long term impact this would have on their chances

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8:57

What is an IQ map and can we trust them?

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2025/03/15

You may have seen a map circulated on social media that claims to show the average IQ of different nations. If you look closely these numbers vary dramatically, with incredibly low scores in developing countries, including many in Africa. Unsurprisingly the map is often used as a way to bolster arguments about racial or national superiority. However, when you look at the data behind the claims the whole thing falls apart. We dive into the methods behind the map and ask whether it’s even possible to

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28:37

DOGE, apples and irregular migrants

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2025/03/12

It’s been 12 weeks since President Trump announced the formation of DOGE, the so-called department of Government efficiency. We fact-check various claims connected with the drive to route out inefficiency. Listeners asked us to investigate the claim that 1 in 12 Londoners is an illegal immigrant. We look into the claim that imported New Zealand apples have a smaller carbon footprint than British grown apples. Plus - did VAT on private schools really boost the rate of inflation, or was that just a

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8:57

Is there really $500bn of Rare Earths in Ukraine?

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2025/03/08

As part of the fast-moving argument over US military support to Ukraine, the US demanded $500bn worth of access to what was variously reported as Ukraine’s rare earths or rare metals or rare minerals. But is there that amount of minerals in the ground?Presenter: Tim HarfordProducer and Editor: Richard Vadon Studio Manager: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

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28:30

Defence Spending, Rare Earths and Trunk Truths

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2025/03/05

Has the US really sent Ukraine $350 billion for its war effort? Is a $500billion cut of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals a good deal? How will the UK fund the governments ambitions to raise defence spending to 3%? But most important of all - how many muscles are in an elephant’s trunk?Presenter: Tim HarfordSeries Producer: Charlotte McDonald Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower and Josh McMinn Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown

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8:56

Has the US really given Ukraine more aid than Europe?

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2025/03/01

As negotiations to end the Ukraine war rumble on, Donald Trump seems equally interested in talking about the past, repeatedly claiming that the US has given much more aid to Ukraine than Europe has, and that Europe’s aid took the form of a loan that they’ll be getting back. Emmanuel Macron has publicly contradicted the US President - so who’s correct? Nathan Gower speaks to Taro Nishikawa, project lead at the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker to get the true picture. Presenter / Producer:

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8:58

Are 150 year olds getting social security payments?

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2025/02/22

Last week Elon Musk revealed that he had been through the Social Security Agencies database and found millions of people aged over 100. The vast majority of these people are dead, but their accounts and social security numbers remain live.Elon claimed that he had uncovered ‘the biggest fraud ever’ prompting some news outlets to speculate that billions of dollars might be being paid to these dead people every month. But is it true? We look at whether this is new information and what the data

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8:58

Has the US sent $50 million worth of condoms to Gaza?

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2025/02/15

On the 25th January, the US Press Secretary announced that in their bid to stop ‘fraud’ and waste DOGE had cancelled $50 million worth of condoms being sent to Gaza by the United States Agency for International Development (aka USAID). President Trump later repeated this claim, adding on that Hamas were using said condoms to make bombs to fire at Israel. On the 7th of February the USAID website was taken down. We fact check this claim and find out how much of the US budget was spent on USAID

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8:58

Are black babies in the US really more likely to die...

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2025/02/08

Babies born in the US to Black Hispanic or African American mothers are more likely to die than any other ethnic group in America. That is a fact. But the reason why this happens is unclear. In 2020 a study came out that claimed that black babies attended by white doctors after birth were twice as likely to die than white babies attended by white doctors. People jumped to the conclusion that the race of the doctor was leading to the different outcomes. But when you delve into the numbers, a very

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8:58

Are quantum computers already super-powerful?

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2025/02/01

Google claim their latest quantum computer chip is able to process something in five minutes it would take a normal computer 10 septillion years to figure out.As this is a massive amount longer than the entire history of the known universe, that seems to suggest the chip is extremely powerful. But when you understand what’s going on, the claim doesn’t seem quite so impressive. Dr Peter Leek, a quantum computer scientist from Oxford University, explains the key context. Presenter: Charlotte

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8:57

Did Trump make billions with his meme-coin?

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2025/01/25

Just before being inaugurated as US president for the second time, Donald Trump launched something called a “meme-coin”.This is a bespoke cryptocurrency token featuring a picture of Donald Trump. A billion of them may eventually be created.Newspaper headlines claimed that the Trump meme-coin had made the president billions of dollars wealthier. But it is far from clear that this is the case. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production

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8:57

Can redheads handle 25% more pain than brunettes?

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2025/01/18

What has the colour of your hair got to do with your capacity to withstand pain? We investigate the claim, which regularly circulates on social media, that natural redheads are 25% tougher than their brunette peers. Pain expert Jeff Mogil explains how it all comes down to something called MC1R. Presenter: Charlotte McDonaldProducer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-ordinator: Katie Morrison

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8:57

Do 79% of Swedish asylum seekers go on holiday to the...

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2025/01/11

The claim that 79% of asylum seekers in Sweden go on holiday in their home country has been repeated regularly on social media. It’s used to argue that recent refugees are being disingenuous about the danger they face in the country they have fled from. But when you look at the survey the claim is based on, you see the stat in a very different way. We speak to Hjalmar Strid, who ran the survey for polling company Novus, and Tino Sanandaji from Bulletin, the online news site which published

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9:00

Numbers of the year part 2

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2025/01/04

We asked and you responded, this edition of ‘numbers of the year’ are from you. our loyal listeners. We scoured the inboxes to find three fascinating numbers that say something about the world we live in now and put them to our experts.Tune if you want to hear about rising global temperatures, what Taylor Swift has in common with 65 years olds and facts about fax (machines). Contributors: Amanda Maycock, University of Leeds Jennifer Dowd, University of OxfordPresenter: Charlotte McDonald Reporter:

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