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PODCAST

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts

The Hammer Betting Network

Welcome to Circles Off. This is your source for educational sports betting content powered by The Hammer Betting Network. This channel looks to provide you with the highest quality sports betting content across multiple divisions. On this feed, we house the Circles Off flagship podcast hosted by Rob Pizzola as well as the Circle Back show which covers the latest from Gambling Twitter. Follow this feed to keep up to date with all of the great content and go to The Hammer website for all of your

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All Episodes

12:39

MIT Students Paid $43 to Avoid Free Money (Millions...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/08/19

A post about an MIT professor's coin flip (win $125, lose $100) went viral claiming that refusing the bet was the smart move. The psychology is real. The advice is backwards. This is the difference between risk aversion as wisdom and risk aversion as a leak... and the one number from the story that proves it.In this video, Rob breaks down why a single coin flip with a roughly 55% implied win probability in your favor still gets rejected by most people, why that instinct is completely rational at

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112:44

The Secret Edge in NFL Preseason Betting | Circle...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/08/17

NFL preseason line movement is under the microscope after a wild stretch of results: teams that have moved 1.5+ points or more on the spread this season are 0-8, and 23-51 since 2024, according to Big Al McMordie's numbers. That trend has reignited a fierce debate about whether closing line value still holds up as a betting principle, with some pointing to small sample sizes and starters entering games as the real driver behind the movement. Also on deck: reactions to Pat McAfee's surprise album

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15:21

The Supreme Court Case That Could Change Prediction...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/08/14

Prediction markets and sportsbooks might look identical on the surface. Same lines, same moneylines, same spreads. But legally and structurally, they're nothing alike. In this conversation, Jacob sits down with Captain Jack Andrews to break down why prediction markets don't meet the legal definition of gambling the way sportsbooks do, walking through the "chance, consideration, and reward" test, the Wire Act's business-of-betting standard, and why the operator side, not the consumer side, is what

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108:19

1,100 Followers. 35,000+ Posts. Meet Rishi Bets. |...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/08/12

Rishi Bets has been posting on X since 2011 with over 35,000 posts and a following nowhere near what that volume would suggest, and it's exactly why the account works. He posts his bet sizes, his wins, and his losses in real time, no cherry-picking. Rob Pizzola sits down with Rishi for a full interview covering his case for prediction markets over traditional sportsbooks, the World Cup position that went horribly wrong and the choice to post the whole thing publicly, where the line should be on

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130:56

Bet Bash 2026: Steve Fezzik's Seminar, Dunk Tank &...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/08/10

Rob and Jacob were on the ground at Bet Bash 2026 (August 4-7), and they're bringing back the biggest storylines from the event, including the fallout from Steve Fezzik's touting ethics seminar. Geoff missed the trip, and shares his perspective from watching it all unfold from home. The crew also dives into the latest out of the WNBA, from a player's claims of white privilege in the league to Enes Freedom and Royce White declaring for the WNBA. Plus, sportsbooks are taking an increasingly clear

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35:44

You Project 80, the Line Is 72.5... You Might Have...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/08/05

You project a running back for 80 rushing yards. The line is 72.5. Nearly eight yards clear — an easy over, right? By the end of this video, that same exact setup might have no bet at all.Rob Pizzola walks through the full process of turning a raw projection into an actual price — not a vibe, not a gut call, a real number you can trust. Starting from a simple two-minute version anyone can use, then building layer by layer into how the market actually prices probability, why your model's mean and

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68:59

WNBA Circus • Bettor Stiffed $500K? • Netflix Doc...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/07/30

The WNBA can't get out of its own way this week. The league's official account posted — then deleted — video of Paige Bueckers and Angel Reese casually discussing a $400 All-Star Weekend bet, a clear violation of the CBA's anti-wagering rules, and it's raising real questions about how a league office lets that get anywhere near publish. Meanwhile, Seattle Storm co-owner Celeste Keaton was fined and suspended for five home games after confronting two teenage fans holding signs supporting Sophie

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53:35

The Sharp Bettor From Netflix's New Documentary Tells...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/07/29

Isaac Rose-Berman was one of the featured sharp bettors in Netflix's new documentary, Instadocs: The Prediction Games — and he's here to break down everything that happened behind the scenes.In this conversation, Isaac details how he got connected to the production, what he was originally told the documentary would focus on, and how ten hours of filming got condensed into just a few minutes of screen time. He addresses the backlash to the Winnable meetup segment and whether those bettors were

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90:16

LeBron to Sixers • Prediction Markets Doc • $14M Bet...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/07/27

Netflix just dropped a documentary on the prediction markets boom, and the trailer alone sparked backlash from sharp bettors and skeptics before the film even released. We break down the doc, the reaction, and what it means for the industry. Plus, LeBron James is officially a Philadelphia 76er, and we dig into the betting angle: how the Sixers' title odds shifted, the sheer volume of money traded on his next-team market, and what it says about his legacy. We also cover an Iowa bettor suing a major

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72:07

LeBron's Heat Leak • Prediction Market Truths • Blame...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/07/23

This week on Circle Back, the crew dives into the Miami Heat's YouTube slip-up, a scheduled livestream titled "LeBron James Introductory Press Conference" for July 27th that got posted, then quickly deleted. The team says it was a mistake made while preparing for a possible signing, but that hasn't stopped the theories. Was this a genuine accident, or a deliberate leak designed to move the needle on prediction markets before anything is even official?From there, the conversation shifts to

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22:05

Rob Pizzola Gets Honest: The State of Circles Off |...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/07/22

Rob Pizzola sits down solo for a candid state-of-the-channel monologue, no guest, no educational breakdown, just an honest look at where Circles Off is and how it got here. Rob talks through the origins of the channel with Johnny from Betstamp, the plateau that led to the pivot into Circle Back, and the business reality behind The Hammer that most viewers never see, including years of building the company without taking a salary. He also gets into what actually drives him to keep making educational

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124:02

Spain Wins World Cup • DeChambeau Scandal • Twitter...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/07/20

Spain won the World Cup final 1-0 over Argentina in extra time, with Ferran Torres scoring the winner after Argentina played the entire match down a man following a red card and failed to register a shot until the 117th minute. The match was overshadowed by a chaotic post-game and halftime spectacle, including Donald Trump's involvement in the festivities. In golf, Ryan Fox won the Open Championship, but the bigger story was the cheating controversy surrounding Bryson DeChambeau, whose penalty

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61:43

Argentina-Spain Final • Sharp Money Debate • Trump...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/07/16

Argentina stunned England with a late 2-1 comeback to set up a World Cup final showdown with Spain, and the reaction is pouring in. A viral take from China (@Chinamaniac) claiming connections matter more than skill or modeling ability in sports betting has sharp bettors pushing back, with many pointing to prediction markets as an accessible alternative. And a wild story is breaking about a White House staffer who's reportedly made over $100,000 betting on prediction markets tied to the president's

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52:46

Rob Reacts: How a Sharp Bettor Handles Losing...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/07/15

Rob Pizzola reacts live to Chris "Flup" Dierkes' viral Substack post detailing a multi-million dollar downswing — and what it actually takes to trust your process through it. Flup, one of the sharpest bettors in the game and a Circle Back regular, wrote candidly about adverse selection, the difference between ego and confidence, spotting real edge vs. variance, closing line value, tilt, and why "just a skill issue" isn't the full story on getting limited. Rob goes section by section, agreeing in

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110:21

UFC 329 Fallout • VAR Controversy • Sportsbook VIP...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/07/13

Conor McGregor's UFC return lasted just over a minute before a devastating knee injury ended his comeback against Max Holloway — and now the conspiracy theories are flying. Did McGregor know he was hurt before he ever stepped in the cage? The crew breaks down what it means for his career, the UFC's future plans, and how the betting markets reacted to one of the wildest outcomes in recent memory. Plus, Argentina's win over Switzerland in the World Cup quarterfinals is still generating controversy

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61:06

World Cup Chaos • McGregor Returns • Mikki Mase...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/07/09

Circle Back is back with another live episode, breaking down the biggest stories and chaos from Gambling Twitter this week. Host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Porter, Isaac Rose-Berman, and Joey Knish as the crew dives into the wild finish to the World Cup: Team USA's elimination at the hands of Belgium amid controversy over President Trump's call to FIFA president Gianni Infantino, Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal's exit from the tournament and the prediction market frenzy over whether he shed a tear,

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20:36

AI Can't Pick Winners... Here's What It CAN Do |...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/07/08

Most people are using AI as a betting oracle, and it's costing them money. Rob Pizzola breaks down the right way to actually use AI for sports betting — not by asking it who wins tonight's games, but by treating it as a research assistant, a coder, and a data scientist that does the labor while you bring the judgment. Rob walks through a real example from the World Cup, where he built an expected goals model with AI, ran a Poisson distribution across dozens of markets, and found a spot where his

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98:56

Balogun/Trump/FIFA • Spotify Ranking Issue • England...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/07/06

The FIFA World Cup is in absolute chaos after reports that Florian Balogun’s red card suspension was reversed ahead of USA vs Belgium following a high-profile intervention involving Donald Trump, sparking major backlash over corruption concerns, competitive integrity, and whether governing bodies are being influenced at the highest level. The crew also breaks down a separate controversy involving Spotify requesting removal of its branding from prediction-market-linked ranking manipulation

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75:35

USA Advance • Malik Beasley Indicted • Jordan Spieth...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/07/02

Live on this week’s Circle Back, the crew breaks down one of the biggest cross-sport news days of the year. The United States have advanced in the FIFA World Cup, but the win is overshadowed after a controversial red card to Florian Balogun that will now see him miss a massive matchup against Belgium. The panel discusses what the decision means on the field — and what it could mean for the betting markets moving forward. The biggest story of the day comes out of the NBA, where Malik Beasley has

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24:00

The Most Expensive Mistake Sports Bettors Keep Making...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/07/01

Most bettors think their edge comes from projection models, numbers, or opinions they’ve built on their own work. But there’s one thing many of them ignore completely: the market. In this video, Rob Pizzola breaks down why ignoring line movement and market information is one of the most expensive mistakes a bettor can make — not because the market is always right, but because it constantly provides free information that can improve your timing, your price, and your decision-making. From

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438 results

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