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PODCAST

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts

The Hammer Betting Network

Welcome to Circles Off. This is your source for educational sports betting content powered by The Hammer Betting Network. This channel looks to provide you with the highest quality sports betting content across multiple divisions. On this feed, we house the Circles Off flagship podcast hosted by Rob Pizzola as well as the Circle Back show which covers the latest from Gambling Twitter. Follow this feed to keep up to date with all of the great content and go to The Hammer website for all of your

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All Episodes

100:51

Wembanyama Just Took A Huge Stand Against Prediction...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/10/05

Victor Wembanyama put his foot down this week, declaring he will never endorse a prediction market or sportsbook. That bold stance opens up a massive conversation about where the line should be drawn when athletes take those exact deals. From there, we jump into a wild NFL Week 4, unpacking the Patriots shocking the Bills and what Lamar Jackson's ankle injury means moving forward. We also react to that viral post raising alarms over high school students and gambling, before tackling a classic

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22:47

How I Think About Betting Trends (This One Surprised...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/09/30

Teams playing on Thursday after a Sunday overtime game are 7-29 against the spread since 2000. I’m not a trends guy, so here’s exactly how I work through a stat like this, step by step: checking how it’s counted, finding the right comparison, looking past the win-loss record, testing the explanation, and asking whether the market’s already on it. This one held up better than most. Here’s why you still shouldn’t bet it blindly, and I want your theory on why it happens.🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX,

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109:42

Ohio Just Dealt Prediction Markets A Massive Blow |...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/09/28

NFL Week 3 delivered chaos, the Steelers upset the 2-0 Bengals in Pittsburgh, Josh Allen and the Bills survived five turnovers to beat the Chargers, and Drake Maye's turnover problems continued in New England. Over in golf, Team USA pulled off a historic comeback at the Presidents Cup, erasing a four-point deficit to win 17-13 at Medinah for their 11th straight title. Plus reaction to the MLB regular season wrapping up and the postseason field taking shape.On the industry side, a federal appeals

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40:49

How Sharp Bettors Build NBA Season Simulators | Off...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/09/25

Thon Misser joins Off Script to break down the NBA season simulator he's been rebuilding this offseason, how it prices different tiers of players, and what changes after a summer that saw the Raptors add Kawhi Leonard and the Sixers bring in LeBron James. From there the conversation moves into the latest push to bring margin trading to prediction markets and what that means for how those markets get used, from pricing futures to gauging elections.Plus a mailbag stacked with viewer questions,

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12:30

Pro Trader Explains The Truth Behind Prediction...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/09/23

Can sharps actually beat a prediction market maker? Chris "Flup" Dierkes breaks down what market makers really do, why new exchanges need in-house liquidity, how auto-movers and traders manage directional risk when the flow hits one side, and what the CFTC's proposed bona fide market making rules could mean for the role. He also takes on the biggest misconceptions, including whether market makers can see who they're trading against.Recorded at BetBash, Jacob Gramegna sits down with Chris

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102:30

NFL Week 2 • Sportsbook AI Targets Losers • +EV Is...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/09/21

NFL Week 2 sports betting reaction gets broken down live on Circle Back, alongside a New York Times report alleging a sportsbook used an AI model to score customers by expected losses and aim bonuses and free bets at them, which the sportsbook disputes. Is +EV overrated? We debate expected value betting and whether the hype matches the results. We also react to Vanderbilt vs NC State and what's being called the biggest UFC upset ever, then run through Chopping Block quick hits including the Off

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42:22

Inside A Pro Bettor's CFP Simulator: Where Humans...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/09/18

A College Football Playoff simulator reveals the real tension in sports betting: when do you trust an algorithm's clean number, and when does a sharp bettor's read on one isolated spot beat the model? Shipper joins Jacob Gramegna for the very first episode of Off Script to break down algorithmic decision-making versus human intuition using live betting, prediction markets, and expected value examples. They then move into two major current events: the proposed repeal of the 90% gambling loss

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12:42

Pro Sports Bettor Breaks Down The CFTC's Market...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/09/16

The CFTC has proposed new rules that could reshape how market making works across prediction market platforms, from fee treatment for in-house market makers to limits on the positions they're allowed to take. The proposal touches everything from single-market liquidity to how combos and RFQs get priced, and depending on how it's implemented, it could change who's able to compete as a market maker at all.Pro sports bettor and trader Porter of BA Analytics joins Circles Off to break down what the

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103:23

Week 1 Fallout • NFL Concedes To PMs • Sydney Sweeney...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/09/14

The NFL, under Commissioner Roger Goodell, has taken a major step in its evolving relationship with prediction markets, and the crew breaks down what it means for sports betting going forward. Week 1 of the NFL season brought plenty of storylines, including a reality check for the Los Angeles Rams following their 27-7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, and a betting-adjacent ad campaign featuring Sydney Sweeney has sparked its own conversation about how brands are approaching this space.Jacob

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11:06

Inside The $240M LeBron Market: What Was Really...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/09/11

The LeBron James next-team market became the second-largest market prediction platforms have ever seen, trailing only the World Cup, with over $240 million traded. Peanut, aka Peanut Bettor on Twitter, joins Circles Off to break down how a market this size actually moves — why $500,000 walls formed around teams like Miami and Minnesota, and how a trader decides whether to jump a wall or wait it out. The conversation gets into steam versus noise — how a single tweet or Sportscenter hit could send a

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27:16

The Motivation Angle That Made Bettors Rich (Then...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/09/09

Do quants ignore motivation? I tested the most famous motivation angles in football, revenge games and blowout bounce backs, against 20+ years of real NFL closing lines. One of them was legitimately profitable. Then the market found it. This is the full lifecycle of a betting edge, tested live against 20+ years of real NFL closing lines.🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF. Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/ 📅 New

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10:19

The Tennis Edge Sportsbooks Still Aren't Pricing...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/09/04

Sharp bettor and responsible gaming advocate Isaac Rose-Berman joins Circles Off at BetBash to break down a tennis edge hiding in plain sight. Because of the way tennis scoring works, a player who falls behind by two breaks in a set will often stop competing entirely to conserve energy for the next one, but sportsbooks don't always adjust their in-match pricing to reflect it. Isaac walks through how to spot the trigger, which players are most likely to give up a set, and how the same logic applies

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12:41

The College Football Edge That Hid in Plain Sight for...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/09/02

In this episode of Legendary Loopholes, China joins Circles Off to break down one of the most unique player prop edges of the last decade. Starting around 2016, China built a reputation moving college football player prop lines at a major sportsbook, sometimes 60 to 80 props a week. When a second sportsbook entered the market and began scraping those openers days later, it created a two season window where China could rebet his own moved lines at their original stale price, all while getting labeled

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110:14

Aaron Donald is RETURNING to the NFL! | Circle Back |...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/08/31

NFL weekend chaos, Week Zero heartbreak, and plenty of drama.Aaron Donald is back — so what does that mean for the Rams and their futures? Plus, Jacobs lands on the commissioners list, a fantasy league debacle unfolds, and we investigate the very real possibility that the “49ers guy” is completely fake. We break down the brutal Hawaii beat from Week Zero, roast Knish for celebrating way too early, dive into the Ninth Circuit’s Kalshi ruling, and ask why “pros don’t want to share.” Plus: Storm

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74:31

Trump Jr Says BACK OFF • American Odds Shift • Sharps...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/08/27

This week on Circle Back, host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Porter, Isaac Rose-Berman, and Shipper to break down three stories shaking up the prediction markets and sports betting world. The crew dives into a New York Times report that Donald Trump Jr. privately urged a room of Republican state attorneys general to back off regulating prediction markets, arguing that state pushback was being driven by gambling companies protecting their own turf rather than genuine consumer concerns. The panel

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99:58

I Asked the Co-Founder of Our Sponsor the Hard...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/08/26

This episode is presented by ProphetX. Our guest is ProphetX co-founder Jake Benzaquen — we address the relationship directly at the top of the episode.Jake Benzaquen co-founded ProphetX eight years ago, long before "prediction market" was a phrase anyone outside finance used. In June, ProphetX became the first sports-native platform to win CFTC approval as a regulated exchange — and this conversation covers everything that came with it: the sweepstakes years, the $35 million raise, what's

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119:10

Deshaun Watson named STARTER for the Cleveland Browns...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/08/24

Browns recap covering Deshaun Watson's postgame comments after getting booed plus the Sanders update, and Dae'Quan Wright's stunning exit from the NFL back to LSU; Ashton Jeanty's injury scare and what it means for fantasy owners; Scottie Scheffler playing through hand, foot & mouth disease at the BMW Championship and whether golf needs injury reporting; Establish The Run shutting down their pick-selling service; a separate wild stat showing MLB favorites went 15-0 in a day; the Raheem Palmer/Pam

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68:32

Sharp Bettors Are Starting To Call Them Out... Is It...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/08/20

Prediction markets are having a moment of reckoning. Sharp bettors are starting to call out PM platforms for the same behavior that made traditional sportsbooks notorious: squeezing out the very winners who helped legitimize the space in the first place. From new maker fees quietly eating into sharp profits to a "pro gambler arc" meme capturing the entire cycle of boom, backlash, and burnout, this week's Circle Back digs into whether prediction markets are already repeating the mistakes of the

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12:39

MIT Students Paid $43 to Avoid Free Money (Millions...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/08/19

A post about an MIT professor's coin flip (win $125, lose $100) went viral claiming that refusing the bet was the smart move. The psychology is real. The advice is backwards. This is the difference between risk aversion as wisdom and risk aversion as a leak... and the one number from the story that proves it.In this video, Rob breaks down why a single coin flip with a roughly 55% implied win probability in your favor still gets rejected by most people, why that instinct is completely rational at

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112:44

The Secret Edge in NFL Preseason Betting | Circle...

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts ·

2026/08/17

NFL preseason line movement is under the microscope after a wild stretch of results: teams that have moved 1.5+ points or more on the spread this season are 0-8, and 23-51 since 2024, according to Big Al McMordie's numbers. That trend has reignited a fierce debate about whether closing line value still holds up as a betting principle, with some pointing to small sample sizes and starters entering games as the real driver behind the movement. Also on deck: reactions to Pat McAfee's surprise album

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