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Exponential View by Azeem Azhar

Weekly deep dives on AI and exponential technologies from a global expert featured in The Economist, WSJ and Financial Times. Join investors, C-suite execs and global leaders and change how you think about the future. www.exponentialview.co

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All Episodes

24:07

🔮 What it will take for AI to scale (energy, compute,...

Exponential View by Azeem Azhar ·

2025/12/11

Listen on Apple Podcasts or SpotifyI recently set out my macro view on the next 24 months of AI. The response was strong and many of you wrote in with questions. In this episode, I build on that analysis and answer your questions.Some highlights:(03:36) The biggest AI constraint right now(10:43) Why mid-2026 is a crucial turning point(18:41) The market’s reaction to OpenAI’s code red(20:51) The best strategy for middling powers?🔔 Subscribe on YouTube for every video – including the ones we don’t

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29:27

🔮 The real bottlenecks in AI + Q&A

Exponential View by Azeem Azhar ·

2025/12/05

In today’s session I reflected on why AI’s bottleneck is no longer the models but the systems expected to absorb them.I followed with a Q&A that touched on* OpenAI’s competitive position* Where value will accrue in the stack* The role of energy and grid limits* The impact of cybersecurity risksEnjoy!Azeem This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.exponentialview.co/subscribe

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24:13

🔮 The S-curves rewriting our economy

Exponential View by Azeem Azhar ·

2025/12/05

Listen on Apple Podcasts or SpotifyYesterday, I unpacked the commercial reality behind Gemini’s release and OpenAI’s “Code Red.” Recent moves look defensive and could narrow OpenAI’s route to a $100 billion in revenues.But past the immediate competition, we are seeing overlapping S-curves of technology rewriting the rules of our economy. In this video, I step back from the leaderboard to look at the transition from scale to reasoning, the “TAM fallacy” that is blinding investors, and the emergence

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29:18

🔮 ChatGPT in history

Exponential View by Azeem Azhar ·

2025/11/28

In today’s session, I used ChatGPT’s third birthday as an opportunity to show how the exponential age is unfolding in real time. The technology improves rapidly, people integrate it into their lives but our institutions adjust much more slowly - a tension I explored in my first book. Enjoy!Azeem This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.exponentialview.co/subscribe

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21:31

👀 The AI productivity paradox

Exponential View by Azeem Azhar ·

2025/11/21

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.exponentialview.coListen on Apple PodcastsThe AI industry is sending mixed signals – markets are turning red while teams report real productivity gains. Today, I examine the latest research to understand this split reality.Skip to the best part(02:53) Unpacking three years of AI productivity data(09:54) The surprising group benefitting from AI(14:33) Anthropic’s alarming discovery(17:29) The counterintuitive truth about AI

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47:58

🔮 Breaking down the job market shake-up & the new...

Exponential View by Azeem Azhar ·

2025/11/15

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.exponentialview.coListen on Spotify or Apple PodcastsSomething important is happening with the labor market. US employers announced over 153,000 job cuts in October, the highest monthly total in more than two decades. Amazon announced about 14,000 corporate job cuts as it pivots towards AI-driven operations. At the same time, research shows that entry-level opportunities are shrinking and new entrants to the job market have it harder

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25:36

The split reality of AI: rising productivity, flat...

Exponential View by Azeem Azhar ·

2025/11/14

In today’s live, I explored why AI feels transformative for individuals but frustratingly slow at the organisational level. It’s the exponential gap that I dissect in my book: organisations struggle to update old processes in the face of rapidly improving technology. Enjoy!Azeem This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.exponentialview.co/subscribe

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16:52

🔮 The infinite-compute economy has already started

Exponential View by Azeem Azhar ·

2025/11/07

Listen on Spotify or Apple PodcastsThe cloud boom, the chip frenzy, the race to build ever-larger data centres – surely we are simply riding the hype cycle of GPTs and chatbots?That view is far too small.What is happening is a structural re-engineering of the economy. From an economy that uses computation to one that is built on computation. Global computing power has grown by roughly 11 orders of magnitude since 1972 – a 62% compound annual increase across five decades. Every technological leap,

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20:28

🔮 The demand for infinite compute

Exponential View by Azeem Azhar ·

2025/10/31

In today’s live I asked whether the cloud and chip surge is exuberance or something deeper. The answer is that we’re seeing a profound, structural shift: the economy is moving into a computational fabric alongside the physical elements of the real economy. I’ll publish more on this topic this weekend.Happy Halloween!Azeem This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.exponentialview.co/subscribe

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45:20

🔮 Inside the US-China decoupling: AI, rare earths,...

Exponential View by Azeem Azhar ·

2025/10/23

Watch on YouTube Listen on Spotify or Apple PodcastsI got together with China expert Jordan Schneider to understand his view on the new phase of the US-China competition. Both countries are using trade policy, export controls and industrial strategy to shift the balance of global power. Just earlier this month, China rolled out its toughest-ever curbs on rare earths and related tech. Yet, the US and China economies remain tightly bound. Jordan and I sit down to make sense of this. Jump to the best

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55:25

🔮 Is the China-US race entering a new paradigm?

Exponential View by Azeem Azhar ·

2025/10/17

Today’s live featured Jordan Schneider, founder and host of ChinaTalk, who’s been analysing China’s rise for years. We examined how rare earth policy, export controls, and tariff carve outs suggest a shift in China’s relationship with the US: from containment to system building. I’ll publish more detailed notes and reflections soon.Enjoy! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.exponentialview.co/subscribe

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46:43

🔮 How Al is breaking and rebuilding the internet economy

Exponential View by Azeem Azhar ·

2025/10/08

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.exponentialview.coI recorded a conversation with Matthew Prince, co-founder & CEO of Cloudflare, a company that sits at the heart of the internet. Few operators have Matthew’s vantage point on how the network is evolving, which makes him uniquely placed to answer: if AI agents read, who gets paid?Jump to highlights:(00:46) The web’s currency is dying(16:19) A mathematical model for knowledge – and its implications on the web(24:35)

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11:53

🔮 How we’ll know if we’re in an AI bubble (history’s...

Exponential View by Azeem Azhar ·

2025/09/27

Is AI a bubble? In this episode, I unpack a new five-gauge framework for understanding the biggest question in tech. Drawing on lessons from past manias – railways, telecoms, the dot-com boom – and grounding our analysis in fresh data, we examine economic strain, revenue growth, valuations, and the quality of capital fueling AI’s ascent. This is our effort to cut through hype and fatalism to provide a clear dashboard: where today’s AI build-out looks like a genuine boom, and where early warning

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58:35

🔮 Is China engineering the future?

Exponential View by Azeem Azhar ·

2025/09/24

In today’s live, I spoke with Dan Wang, author of Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future, shortlisted for the FT & Schroders Business Book of the Year. Dan is one of the most astute observers of China’s technological and industrial development, and his annual letters from Beijing have long been required reading for those seeking to understand the country’s evolving role in the world. In his new book, he argues that China is best understood as an engineering state, in contrast to the

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37:59

🔮 Can OpenAI outperform the Nasdaq?

Exponential View by Azeem Azhar ·

2025/09/05

OpenAI is expanding a secondary share sale that lets insiders sell about $10.3 billion of stock at roughly a $500 billion valuation. That raised a simple question: is a private slice of OpenAI better than buying the Nasdaq?I have an exclusive essay ready for members (arriving in your inboxes tomorrow!) breaking down the math and my assumptions in detail. Become a premium member to receive it in full tomorrow morning.Ahead of this release, I did a quick live chat with EV readers to share my initial

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34:44

🔮 New evidence for AI and the job market

Exponential View by Azeem Azhar ·

2025/08/29

Thanks to all who joined my 30-minute live briefing today. For those of you who were not there, here’s a chance to catch up. Skip to 1:30 when I start the event.How is AI impacting the labour market? In today’s live, I discussed Erik Brynjolfsson and colleagues’ latest paper “Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence”, which found that early career workers in AI-exposed roles saw a 13% relative decline in employment, while older workers saw

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27:19

🔮 What I was right (and wrong) about

Exponential View by Azeem Azhar ·

2025/07/04

At the start of the year, I made seven predictions about how 2025 would unfold. Six months in, it’s time to mark my own work.* No AI wall (Grade: A)I had foreseen that we’d see no slowdown in AI capability growth. Ten-million-token models exist (Meta, Mistral, Gemini). Benchmark scores are rising sharply - Frontier Maths, RKGI, MMLU. O3 is 25% on Frontier Math where GPT-4 was 2%. There’s been real progress. That said, some models are inconsistent and overthink things. Ask me how Flash 2.5 wrecked

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28:01

🔮 Lessons from China

Exponential View by Azeem Azhar ·

2025/06/27

In today’s live I reflected on a whirlwind three-day visit to China. You can’t do justice to a small country in three days, let alone a big one. But I was observing. And here are a few things that stuck out:* Infrastructure built at speed: Beijing’s immaculate airport, 300 km/h rail to Tianjin, and smooth expressways hammer home the sustained investment, the concrete and steel, that China has poured over the previous decades.* Verticalised AI in action: American frontier labs lead. Chinese ones are

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37:19

🔮 Living in the "gentle singularity"?

Exponential View by Azeem Azhar ·

2025/06/13

In today’s live I explored three tectonic shifts: Apple’s puzzling WWDC reveal and the turn towards ambient computing, Google’s waning click-ads as users embrace chatbots, and Sam Altman’s “gentle singularity” that still demands hard institutional work.Quick takes:* Apple after the iPhone: Liquid Interface points to a post-phone world of voice-first, invisible assistance; yet Cupertino lags on core AI, stitching sloth emojis while rivals edge towards AGI.* The crumble of the click: ChatGPT and

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58:12

🔮 OpenAI’s CPO on building at the cutting edge

Exponential View by Azeem Azhar ·

2025/06/04

In today’s live show I spoke with Kevin Weil, CPO of OpenAI, just moments after he announced a range of new features including enterprise connectors and meeting recordings.We discussed:* ChatGPT now ingests Google Workspace, Microsoft 365, Dropbox, Box, SharePoint and OneDrive data, while new agents summarise docs, run multi-step research and commit code.* GPT-4o becomes the default; GPT-5 is on the runway to fold frontier abilities into one workhorse.* Eval-driven loops let product and research

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