PODCAST

New Horizons Investment

Odd Bird

This podcast is designed to introduce new investors to investing.

business investing

All Episodes

00:54:05

Strategic Equity Deep Dives: Analysis of Market Moats...

New Horizons Investment ·

2026/04/25

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of 20 public companies, evaluating their business models, market positioning, and financial health. The podcast examines established technology and service platforms like Airbnb, Salesforce, and Uber, categorizing them by their ability to generate consistent cash flow and leverage network effects. Each profile highlights a "variant perception," contrasting general market consensus with a specific investment thesis centered on structural shifts or

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00:53:23

The Quality Stack: A Comparative Investment Hierarchy

New Horizons Investment ·

2026/04/20

This episode provides a comprehensive investment analysis of high-quality software and retail businesses, focusing on their long-term durability and current market sentiment. The podcast categorizes elite technology firms like Adobe and Salesforce as essential infrastructure, evaluating how artificial intelligence and shifting enterprise budgets impact their pricing power and growth potential. Beyond the software sector, the podcast examines companies like Airbnb and JD.com, distinguishing between

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00:26:32

Intelligence as Energy Optimization: The Cost of...

New Horizons Investment ·

2026/04/18

This podcast explores a paradigm shift in artificial intelligence from raw computational power toward a biological model of metabolic efficiency. By implementing a "digital chemistry" layer, AI can move away from intensive brute-force processing and toward a system that utilizes internal states to regulate energy use. Key signals such as curiosity, fatigue, and uncertainty allow the software to dynamically allocate resources, choosing when to think deeply and when to conserve power. This

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00:36:56

The Art of the Exit: A Systematic Selling Framework

New Horizons Investment ·

2026/04/13

This podcast outlines a systematic selling framework modeled after the behaviors of elite "super investors" like Warren Buffett and Michael Burry. This strategy emphasizes scaling out of positions in layers rather than exiting all at once, moving through five distinct phases based on holding time and percentage gains. By establishing predetermined sell triggers, the framework helps investors remove emotional bias and protect capital as investment narratives mature. Key factors such as position size

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00:20:52

Decision Quality: A Framework for Process-Driven...

New Horizons Investment ·

2026/04/12

This episode describes a four-level framework designed to help individuals separate decision quality from the unpredictability of luck. By using a quadrant system to categorize results, the methodology encourages moving past simple wins and losses to evaluate if a choice was optimal based on the information available at the time. The goal is to eliminate hindsight bias and emotional storytelling by documenting reasoning and identifying recurring patterns in behavior. The podcast argues that true

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00:21:38

The Mispriced Odds Probability Framework

New Horizons Investment ·

2026/04/10

This episode describes the Formula × Catalyst framework, a disciplined investment methodology designed to identify where the market has miscalculated the probability of specific stock returns. This system combines a company’s structural setup with observable moving events to determine the likelihood of 2x to 10x gains rather than relying on popular narratives. The podcast categorize specific equities into different tiers, noting that Meta and Molina Healthcare offer high-probability doublings, while

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00:52:26

The Catalyst Matrix: A Framework for Strategic Stock...

New Horizons Investment ·

2026/03/28

This podcast introduces an investment framework called The Matrix, a systematic method for evaluating stocks based on specific catalysts rather than mere speculation. This strategy, inspired by the principles of Michael Burry, categorizes market events into five distinct tiers ranging from high-impact corporate changes to negative risk factors. By assigning weighted scores to these tiers, investors can differentiate between stocks with inevitable price movements and those driven by simple market

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00:22:31

The Crypto Power Law: A 12-Asset Portfolio Strategy

New Horizons Investment ·

2026/03/21

This episode outlines a 12-asset crypto portfolio designed around the Power Wave trading strategy, which prioritizes market asymmetry over traditional diversification. This investment philosophy focuses on concentrating capital into a few high-probability winners, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, while maintaining smaller positions in speculative or emerging sectors. The podcast discusses how to categorize these assets into core blue-chips, infrastructure layers, and high-risk bets to capture

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00:23:08

The Power-Law Investing

New Horizons Investment ·

2026/03/19

This episode explores the power law in investing, a principle stating that a tiny fraction of "outlier" successes generates the vast majority of market wealth. Unlike a standard bell curve where results cluster around an average, this model suggests that most stocks are irrelevant to long-term gains while a few provide asymmetric upside. To capitalize on this, the text recommends a 6% rule for position sizing, which balances the need for significant "skin in the game" with the necessity of capital

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00:37:47

The Mathematical Edge of Michael Burry

New Horizons Investment ·

2026/03/08

This episode examines the mathematical framework behind Michael Burry’s investment success, arguing that his wealth is built on a repeatable process rather than just a few famous "big bets." By analyzing a sample of his trades, the author reveals an impressive 87% win rate driven by consistent, moderate gains of 30% to 40%. The core of Burry’s strategy relies on asymmetric returns, where he strictly limits losses to small percentages while allowing undervalued assets to snap back to their fair

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01:05:45

The Coil Spring - Is the Party Over?

New Horizons Investment ·

2026/03/07

The "Goldilocks" era of easy gains and rapid rate cuts appears to be over. This episode suggests the market is a "coiled spring" of tension, where even a small catalyst could trigger a violent downward correction because the structural supports (passive flows and buybacks) are done.This podcast outlines a perspective of extreme overvaluation and structural fragility within the 2026 U.S. stock market. Analysis of historical data, including the Shiller CAPE ratio, suggests that current valuations are

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00:30:01

The Psychology of XRP

New Horizons Investment ·

2026/03/01

This episode examines XRP not as a financial instrument, but as a case study in investor psychology and the behavior surrounding high-friction infrastructure. This podcast suggests that social proof and institutional-sounding terminology often create a false sense of certainty that masks the complex reality of market plumbing. Rather than destroying the asset, regulatory pressure and technical hurdles serve as filters that eliminate casual investors while concentrating ownership among those with

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00:30:01

Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP) February 2026 Checkpoint

New Horizons Investment ·

2026/02/21

This is an episode on Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP) which is a specialized real estate investment trust that manages high-end office spaces and media production studios for major technology and entertainment firms. This podcast discusses financial filings and market analyses, reveal a company facing significant structural challenges and financial distress due to high debt levels and a downturn in the office sector. Recent reports highlight a dramatic decline in stock value and a fundamental rating

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00:16:29

High-Conviction Macro Strategies and Portfolio...

New Horizons Investment ·

2026/02/18

This episode discusses the recent strategic shifts and portfolio concentrations of five prominent hedge fund managers. Tepper is characterized as making a high-beta macro bet by leaning into Chinese equities, semiconductors, and cyclical industrials to signal global growth optimism. In contrast, Ainslie and ValueAct show heavy conviction in U.S. mega-cap tech and AI infrastructure, though they differ in their approach between momentum-based trading and long-term operational influence. Einhorn

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00:34:52

Molina Healthcare (MOH) February 2026 Checkpoint

New Horizons Investment ·

2026/02/15

This episode examines Molina Healthcare's financial performance and strategic position as of late 2025 and early 2026. Investor Dr. Michael Burry compares the firm to a young GEICO, highlighting its efficient cost structures and disciplined management despite a significant drop in stock price. While Molina has successfully secured major Medicaid contracts in states like Florida and Idaho, it faces headwinds from rising medical cost trends and legislative changes under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act

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00:28:31

Palantir: The Heretic’s Guide to an AI

New Horizons Investment ·

2026/02/12

This episode examines Palantir Technologies, questioning its identity as a true software company versus a labor-intensive consultancy. While the firm markets its Foundry and Gotham platforms as revolutionary operating systems, the source argues they primarily act as integration layers requiring expensive, manual customization by engineers. Financial analysis suggests Palantir has historically struggled with profitability, masking high operational costs and significant stock-based compensation

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00:32:22

XYZ (Block, Inc.) 2026 Checkpoint

New Horizons Investment ·

2026/02/08

This episode provides a comprehensive financial and operational profile of Block, Inc., primarily through its 2025 third-quarter SEC filing and various equity research reports. The podcast discusses the performance of the company’s two main ecosystems, Square and Cash App, while highlighting its strategic expansion into Bitcoin and buy now, pay later services via Afterpay. Financial analysts from firms like Argus and CFRA offer conflicting perspectives, ranging from buy to hold ratings, as they

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00:33:28

Sink or SWIM?

New Horizons Investment ·

2026/02/07

This episode offers a detailed examination of Latham Group, Inc., a prominent manufacturer of in-ground residential swimming pools and related accessories. The podcast discusses financial reports detail the company's transition from annual losses to recent net income growth, highlighting its strategic focus on converting homeowners to fiberglass pool materials. It also emphasize the risks of relying on forward-looking statements and the proprietary nature of market data. The podcast discusses

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00:18:27

SAM vs. TAP: Why the Cheap Beer Stock Isn’t the Real...

New Horizons Investment ·

2026/02/01

This episode discusses financial reports and investment analysis focused on the alcohol beverage industry, specifically comparing The Boston Beer Company and Molson Coors. Quarterly SEC filings for both entities detail their respective fiscal performance, including impairment charges and recent leadership changes. One report highlights a massive $3.6 billion goodwill impairment for Molson Coors, while the other tracks Boston Beer’s stock buybacks and production shifts. The 18 minute podcast also

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00:35:17

Fluor (FLR) and Cost of Being Boring

New Horizons Investment ·

2026/01/30

This episode offers a comprehensive look at Fluor Corporation (FLR) through expert analysis, quantitative data, and strategic guidance. The CFRA report provides a hold recommendation, noting that while the company’s valuation is a positive driver, its growth metrics remain a concern for the quantitative model. Morningstar analysts suggest a more optimistic buying opportunity, highlighting that the stock trades at a significant discount to its fair value despite high uncertainty surrounding a major

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