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PODCAST

The Dividend Cafe

The Bahnsen Group

The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill

business investing

All Episodes

10:43

Monday - October 5, 2026

The Dividend Cafe ·

2026/10/05

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TqofweThe Monday Dividend Cafe is recorded mid-day during a “money manager week” of meetings at Apollo, Blackstone, and Golden Tree. With earnings season starting, quarterly earnings expectations have risen 1.8% in five days, with upward revisions concentrated in technology and downward revisions in consumer staples and industrials, shaping the bar for surprises. Yield-sensitive areas have dropped in recent weeks, creating potential recovery setups for REITs and

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27:32

The Past, Present, and Future of The Bahnsen Group

The Dividend Cafe ·

2026/10/02

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4iVv0QWDavid Bahnsen announces a temporary shift from the usual Dividend Cafe format: a normal episode on Monday, a future deep dive on long-term bond yields, and a later recap of the firm’s annual New York meetings with money managers. He marks the closing (September 30) of The Bahnsen Group becoming a wholly owned subsidiary of Hightower Advisors, explaining what changes and what does not—especially continued autonomy, culture, and client service while leveraging

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9:20

Thursday - October 1, 2026

The Dividend Cafe ·

2026/10/01

Brian Szytel hosts The Dividend Cafe from New York City on the first day of Q4, noting a benign market day (Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq flat) and a slightly steepening yield curve. He argues that higher long-term rates repricing toward nominal growth is natural, not inherently sinister, and says the first “cracks” to watch would be widening high-yield credit spreads, which remain very tight, suggesting no recession signal. He reviews economic data including initial jobless claims at 197, manufacturing

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9:48

Wednesday - September 30, 2026

The Dividend Cafe ·

2026/09/30

On Sept. 30, Brian Szytel reports a bifurcated market into quarter-end, with the Dow down about 200 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise, led by large-cap growth; yields steepen as the 10-year and 30-year move higher. A cooler-than-expected PCE inflation report (core and year-over-year) lowers implied odds of an October Fed hike to about 35%, though Friday’s nonfarm payrolls could shift expectations. Other data were stronger: Q2 GDP revised up to 2.2%, ADP payrolls beat estimates, and

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8:59

Tuesday - September 29, 2026

The Dividend Cafe ·

2026/09/29

Brian Szytel reviews modest market declines (Dow -131, S&P -0.15%, Nasdaq -0.10%) with major indexes still up YTD, and focuses on the bond selloff pushing the 10-year yield to about 5.24% amid speculation about 6%. He argues higher yields reflect both higher nominal growth near 6% and a Fed intent on reducing its balance sheet, with limited ability for Treasury financing tactics to meaningfully lower yields. He notes consumer confidence missed (81 vs. 89), JOLTS openings dipped slightly (7.1M

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19:49

Monday - September 28, 2026

The Dividend Cafe ·

2026/09/28

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4AC4xy1From Las Vegas ahead of an investment conference, the host recaps a volatile market day (Dow -347, S&P -0.77%, Nasdaq -0.92%) while the S&P sits near all-time highs despite very weak breadth: ~60% of S&P 500 names are down 20%+ and the market has seen repeated 52-week lows exceed highs; he clarifies a misunderstood stat showing the weighted average decline among 430 down names is 21.7%. He ties the damage to rising yields (10-year ~5.23%), notes

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26:02

Unapologetic Energy Bull: Meet Me in the Middle

The Dividend Cafe ·

2026/09/25

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4rwGwnTDavid Bahnsen hosts the Friday Dividend Cafe and explains he chose to focus on an energy investment theme rather than the week’s surge in bond yields. He argues investors and media overemphasize headlines about the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, and WTI prices, while the energy sector remains largely ignored due to its small S&P 500 weight (about 3.5% versus Apple at 7.4%, and midstream at 0.5%). He notes oil supply disruptions have been buffered by large

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9:42

Thursday - September 24, 2026

The Dividend Cafe ·

2026/09/24

On Thursday, Sept. 24, Brian Szytel recaps a down Dow day with the S&P and Nasdaq flat as markets rebounded late on optimism about U.S.-Iran talks potentially easing the Strait of Hormuz situation; WTI still rose about 3% to roughly $95. He highlights the bigger story as higher interest rates, with the 10-year yield up another 10 bps to about 5.21% and up 120 bps year-to-date, arguing media may be overstating it and noting long rates also reflect growth expectations, strong earnings, and

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9:17

Wednesday - September 23, 2026

The Dividend Cafe ·

2026/09/23

Brian Szytel reports a broad market decline driven by a bond selloff, with yields rising across the curve in a bearish flattener; the 10-year finished near 5.11%, while the 2s/10s spread remained about 21 bps. He attributes the rate move to stronger flash PMI data in services (58.7 vs. 55.7) and manufacturing (57 vs. 53.5), alongside hotter input inflation tied to fuel and transportation. Energy markets showed angst amid Iran-related developments and discussion of a possible U.S. diesel export ban,

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9:31

Tuesday - September 22, 2026

The Dividend Cafe ·

2026/09/22

Brian Szytel recaps a mixed market day: the S&P 500 finished flat, the Dow fell 185 points, and the Nasdaq rose about 0.5% as long-end yields eased slightly and the 10-year held near 4.95%. He notes financial conditions have loosened a bit since the Fed’s recent hike, with stocks higher, tight credit spreads, and long yields down, while markets still price more restrictive Fed policy even as WTI slipped below $90. He observes a previously strong negative correlation between AI/semiconductors and

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14:10

Monday - September 21, 2026

The Dividend Cafe ·

2026/09/21

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4y9YwqVDavid Bahnsen delivers a quick Monday Dividend Cafe update from Chicago after travel disruptions, covering a strong market day led by communication services and technology while energy fell on a nearly 5% drop in oil; he notes the S&P 500 is near an all-time high even as market breadth has deteriorated sharply. He discusses rising margin debt and how its use has shifted toward non-purpose lending, highlights record ETF inflows into technology as a

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23:29

"The Most Performative Interest Rate Hike Ever"

The Dividend Cafe ·

2026/09/18

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4j4mxuIDavid Bahnsen discusses the Fed’s quarter-point rate hike, arguing it was largely “performative” because markets had already tightened financial conditions and the Fed is now following rather than leading. He notes the fed funds futures market implies an 87% chance of another hike this year and reviews the political speculation around Chairman Kevin Warsh and President Trump, including Trump’s post calling for 1% rates while diverting attention to trade

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6:05

Thursday - September 17, 2026

The Dividend Cafe ·

2026/09/17

Brian Szytel reports a pre-close market rebound from Newport Beach on Thursday, September 17, with the Dow up over 300 points, the S&P up over 1%, the Nasdaq up about 1.5%, and the 10-year yield falling to 4.95% as the curve flattens; oil prices eased and recent sector rotation briefly reversed as tech regained bids and equal-weight indexes underperformed cap-weighted. On the economic calendar, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index beat expectations and initial jobless claims fell to 196,000 versus

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6:32

Wednesday - September 16, 2026

The Dividend Cafe ·

2026/09/16

Brian Szytel recaps a volatile Fed day in which the FOMC unanimously raised rates 25 basis points, moving the range from 3.50–3.75 to 3.75–4.00, a move largely priced in. He notes dot plots implying one more hike before year-end (around 4.00–4.25), with market reaction reflecting short-term yields up slightly, long-term yields down slightly, and the 10-year unchanged near 5.01. Markets sold off (Dow ~-740, S&P ~-0.6%, Nasdaq ~-0.1%) but improved off the lows, with internals not signaling a major

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9:41

Tuesday - September 15, 2026

The Dividend Cafe ·

2026/09/15

Brian Szytel reviews a down market day driven by oil staying above $100 (Brent 108, WTI 105), ongoing Middle East tensions, and the 10-year Treasury closing near 5%, noting equities are only a few percent off highs. Using an S&P 500 forward earnings estimate of about $406/share next year, he argues a 5% pullback implies ~17.5x forward earnings and a 10% drawdown ~16.6x—normal moves that would still look reasonable given expected double-digit earnings growth and a more tech-heavy index. He

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15:51

Monday - September 14, 2026

The Dividend Cafe ·

2026/09/14

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4dB7zsqDavid Bahnsen hosts the Monday Dividend Cafe from the Newport Beach studio, recaps the show’s weekly content cadence, and reviews a relatively calm market day after a volatile weekend. Nasdaq and S&P finished down about 0.5% with semiconductors down 5.6%, tied to a weekend letter from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei urging major AI labs to slow development and seek regulation, with support from Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Google’s AI leadership. Bahnsen notes

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23:37

What 9/11 Meant and Still Means for Investors

The Dividend Cafe ·

2026/09/11

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4ioMZyTOn September 11, 2026, David Bahnsen marks the 25th anniversary of 9/11 with reflections as an investor, an American, and a person, focusing mainly on market lessons. He notes the S&P 500 was already down about 30% from its 2000 high before 9/11 amid falling earnings and a valuation re-rating, then reviews how markets closed for four days and fell sharply upon reopening, with about $1.5 trillion in market value lost that week. Bahnsen argues 9/11’s

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12:33

Thursday - September 10, 2026

The Dividend Cafe ·

2026/09/10

Brian Szytel reports another broad market decline (Dow -316, S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%) alongside a sharp oil rally (WTI ~+7% to $102; Brent $107), with oil up about 20% over the past week and a half amid Middle East tensions and threats to key Red Sea chokepoints including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Markets are focused on CPI ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, with discussion of a roughly 70% chance of a rate hike and political pressure from upcoming midterms; he frames possible policy levels

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9:17

Wednesday - September 9, 2026

The Dividend Cafe ·

2026/09/09

Brian Szytel reports a third straight market decline (Dow -405, S&P -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%) alongside falling bond prices and a 10-year yield up 5 bps to 4.84%, noting Treasury talk of increasing long-bond buybacks to $6B is too small versus ~$5.5T of long debt and was met by higher yields. He walks through a hypothetical of refinancing all long-term debt with T-bills, which could flatten the curve but would push short rates up, remove long-duration supply, and make U.S. financing resemble an

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6:45

Tuesday - September 8, 2026

The Dividend Cafe ·

2026/09/08

Brian Szytel reviews a down day in markets after Labor Day, noting the Dow fell 628 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also declined, though the Dow remains up over 10% year-to-date. Oil prices rose (WTI near $93.6, Brent near $98) amid heightened US-Iran/Middle East tensions, lifting inflation expectations and interest rates and raising concern about energy as a consumption “tax.” He highlights NFIB small business optimism at 98.7 and points to Friday’s CPI as the key market-moving event. He

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