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PODCAST

Risky Science Podcast

Risk Market News

The Risky Science Podcast features conversations with scientists, insurers, investors, portfolio managers, and others about the evolving science of predicting and modeling risk across both natural and man-made perils.

business investing

All Episodes

48:27

Why Mixing Catastrophes With Prediction Markets Is...

Risky Science Podcast ·

2026/04/15

The LA wildfires burned more than a hundred thousand acres. They destroyed thousands of homes. And while they were still burning, people were placing bets on them.Not insurers. Not reinsurers. Not catastrophe modelers running exceedance probability curves. Anybody with a crypto wallet and an opinion.That's the world of prediction markets — platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, where you can trade event contracts on everything from Fed rate decisions to wildfire containment timelines. The

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27:23

AI, Models, and the Limits of Climate Assumptions...

Risky Science Podcast ·

2026/04/13

We sit down with Dr. Sarah Kapnick at Climate Tech Connect in Washington, D.C. in a conversation covers the time-horizon problem at the heart of climate finance, what the PG&E bankruptcy revealed about the gap between credit models and physical risk, and where AI-generated climate insight ends and hallucination begins.Subscribe to Risk Market News

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52:53

Can Models Still Work When Everything Changes at...

Risky Science Podcast ·

2026/04/01

This week I speak with Dr. Christiane Baumeister, a professor at the University of Notre Dame. Her research focuses on global oil market dynamics — disentangling the supply and demand forces that drive prices and developing forecasting models that are designed to perform precisely when markets are most volatile.

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5:37

(Preview) China's Growing Risk Data Moat and the US...

Risky Science Podcast ·

2026/03/25

A conversation with Dr. Hui Su, a professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and one of the leading researchers working at the intersection of satellite data, artificial intelligence, and extreme weather forecasting. Become a member of Risk Market News for access to the full member episode.

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60:50

Confidence as a Service With Eric Winsberg

Risky Science Podcast ·

2026/03/18

We speak with Eric Winsberg: a philosopher of science at Cambridge and the University of South Florida, who has thought hard about what happens when models move from the lab into the world and into policy and markets.

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10:04

(Preview) The $232 Billion Storm No One Is Pricing...

Risky Science Podcast ·

2026/03/11

Chris Lafakis and his team did the first analysis to combine Moody's catastrophe modeling infrastructure with a full macroeconomic model. The results are eye opening.This is a preview of the Risky Science Podcast Member Edtion.To get access to the full episode sign up to become a free member of Risk Market News.

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55:40

How Hurricane Risk Really Gets Priced with Dr. Ben...

Risky Science Podcast ·

2026/03/04

Dr. Ben Collier, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and his fellow researchers published a recent paper that uses twenty years of Florida data to trace a direct line from cat model revisions to the premiums homeowners actually pay. The finding? A one-dollar increase in modeled expected loss translates to roughly five dollars in higher premiums. That multiplier — and what's driving it — is what we're unpacking today.In the episode we dive deep into the findings.The paper:

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53:00

Black Box Problems, Machine Judgment and the Rules...

Risky Science Podcast ·

2026/02/18

A conversation with Daniel Schwarcz, professor at the University of Minnesota Law School, where he teaches insurance law, contract law, tort law, and financial regulation and his academic work sits at the intersection of AI governance and insurance regulation.(00:00) - Introduction (00:17) - Guest background: From P&C attorney to insurance law professor (02:13) - AI in insurance today: back-office efficiency vs. underwriting and claims (10:06) - Is AI "locked and loaded" for

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42:24

AI Risk, Markets and Modeling the Unknown With Daniel...

Risky Science Podcast ·

2026/02/11

In this episode of the Risky Science Podcast we are joined by Danie Retil, co-founder of Exona Labs, a startup building AI risk modeling and quantification tools.

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53:59

Prediction Markets, Parametrics and Rethinking...

Risky Science Podcast ·

2026/02/04

For decades, insurers, reinsurers and energy companies have relied on models, parametrics, and traditional hedges to manage hurricane and weather exposure. But what if markets could continuously price those risks — in real time — and let anyone transfer or hedge them instantly?In this episode I’m joined by Dr. Patrick Brown, Head of Climate Analytics Interactive Brokers to talk about modeling the models, forecast contracts, and whether prediction markets could become the next tool in the

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46:48

Greenland, Venezuela and the New Political Risk Model...

Risky Science Podcast ·

2026/01/21

In this episode of the podcast, we speak with geopolitical risk expert Samuel Wilkin of Willis Towers Watson about why political risk is moving from a background concern to a front-line business problem. Sam breaks down the rise of “gray zone” attacks in the space between war and peace—from covert sabotage to infrastructure disruption—and explains why these threats are so difficult to model and insure. He also argues that the future of political risk management is less about perfect

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41:57

Cyber Risk in 2026 and Why Near Misses Matter More...

Risky Science Podcast ·

2026/01/14

In our first episode of the New Year we are focusing on cyber risk in 2026, a peril that looks increasingly systemic, yet remains poorly understood when it comes to how losses actually materialize.Over the past decade, cyber risk modeling has matured rapidly. But as cloud concentration deepens, dependencies multiply, and “near miss” events become more frequent, a central question remains unresolved: what does a truly systemic insured cyber loss actually look like—and are markets prepared

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51:52

Climate, Markets and the Limits of Insurability with...

Risky Science Podcast ·

2025/12/24

In the last episode of Risky Science, we examined skepticism around climate-conditioned catastrophe models with Roger Pielke Jr.—questioning how much weight long-range climate assumptions should carry in near-term insurance and capital decisions.Today’s discussion is a direct counterpoint.My guest is Dave Jones, former California Insurance Commissioner and now director of the Climate Risk Initiative at UC Berkeley Law. His recent article argues that insurance itself has become the clearest

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42:17

Climate, Catastrophe Models and the Limits of...

Risky Science Podcast ·

2025/12/17

Register for the January 8 Risky Science Podcast LiveIn this episode, I’m joined by Roger Pielke Jr., a researcher known for his work on the use—and misuse—of models in risk and policy decisions. Pielke is a polarizing figure in climate research, particularly for his views on how climate change should—and should not—be incorporated into catastrophe models used for annual insurance and reinsurance decisions.It was a timely conversation, especially as Pielke has recently used his Substack,

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49:41

Housing Prices, Climate Signals and Reinsurance...

Risky Science Podcast ·

2025/12/10

Register here for the January 8 Risky Science Podcast LiveThis week on the Risky Science Podcast, I’m joined by Dr. Phillip Mulder of the University of Wisconsin, co-author of a newly released research paper examining how these insurance pressures are influencing who buys, who moves, and who can no longer afford to stay.The research has drawn significant attention, including coverage in The New York Times. Dr. Mulder explains how one of the primary underlying forces in this emerging

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45:04

Weather, Risk & Europe’s Energy Upheaval with TP...

Risky Science Podcast ·

2025/11/28

Our guest is Tim Boyce of TP ICAP, who has spent more than 25 years in financial markets, from US-dollar swaps in London to commodities in Singapore, before returning to the UK to build out the firm’s European weather business. Tim describes weather as a “sleeping giant,” a market that should be much bigger given how energy, logistics, agriculture, and retail all rely on predictable weather and stable demandWe’ll talk about where demand is growing fastest, how better forecasting and

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47:42

Pandemics, Models and the Limits of Securitization...

Risky Science Podcast ·

2025/11/19

On today’s episode of the Risky Science Podcast, we’re stepping outside the usual finance lens and into a conversation that will push many of your assumptions about how risk, capital, and human health actually interact. Dr. Susan Erikson: medical anthropologist and author of Investable!, brings a perspective that most risk and financial professionals rarely engage with, but absolutely need to hear. Her work on pandemic bonds and the financialization of global health doesn’t just critique

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42:27

Opening China’s Weather Risk Markets with...

Risky Science Podcast ·

2025/10/29

China was once seen as a vast, untapped frontier for global risk finance — drawing interest from New York to London. Yet a combination of geopolitical headwinds and trade tensions has cooled expansion plans for many executives hoping to grow their Asian footprint.That hasn’t stopped real innovation — especially in weather and physical-risk finance, where the market potential is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.In this episode, we speak with Jim Huang, founder of climateHedge, a

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29:01

Sweet Earnings, Sour Investors and the Insurance...

Risky Science Podcast ·

2025/10/22

This week I’m joined by Meyer Shields of KBW, one of the most followed insurance analysts on Wall Street. We get into what’s driving that split, how AI and modeling are — or aren’t — starting to show up in real financial performance, and whether today’s property catastrophe discipline is a genuine structural reset or just another hard market waiting to unwind.

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47:04

Building Trust In AI-Driven Weather and Risk Models...

Risky Science Podcast ·

2025/10/15

This week’s guest is Dr. Hansi Singh, an Earth system scientist who’s worked at the U.S. Department of Energy, taught in academia, and now leads a startup called Plannette.AI, which blends physics and AI to deliver long-range weather forecasts for industries including finance and insurance.In this conversation, Dr. Singh explains why AI’s biggest weather-forecasting success have been within the seven-day window—and why pushing beyond that horizon remains so hard. We explore how AI can

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37 results

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