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PODCAST

Forward Guidance

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision. Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW Follow Blockworks:

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All Episodes

57:46

The Ingredients Are in Place for a Blow-Off Top |...

Forward Guidance ·

2025/10/10

This week, we discuss the government shutdown and market melt-up, Paul Tudor Jones’ blow off bull market call, an update to the gold trade, the AI CapEx boom and its circular financing, and Quinn’s ETH bull thesis. Enjoy!— Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram:

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56:42

The Recession Has Already Started | George Robertson

Forward Guidance ·

2025/10/08

In this episode, George Robertson returns to break down why he’s turned bearish. He explains why he thinks massive fiscal tightening from tariffs and job cuts, corporate profits rolling over, and the flow-of-funds are signaling recession even as markets sit at all-time highs. He walks through employment indicators, withholding data, and the widening gap between S&P levels and actual earnings, arguing the downturn has already begun. Enjoy!__ Follow George: https://x.com/BickerinBrattle Follow

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55:24

This Bull Market Has Legs | Weekly Roundup

Forward Guidance ·

2025/10/03

This week, we dig into the government shutdown, weakening labor markets, AI’s role in productivity, Michael Howell’s demographic analysis, and how fiscal and market structure dynamics set the stage for a potential risk-asset melt-up. Enjoy!— Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward

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21:05

Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look...

Forward Guidance ·

2025/10/01

In this episode, Morgan Stanley’s Head of Emerging Markets Equity Amy Oldenburg explains how her journey from tech to emerging markets led her to crypto, why mobile-first nations are fertile ground for stablecoins, how governments and banks are wrestling with this shift, and where she sees the next big opportunities across EM and innovation. Enjoy!__ Follow Amy: https://www.linkedin.com/in/amyoldenburg/ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance:

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67:36

Economic Reacceleration or Growth Scare? | Weekly...

Forward Guidance ·

2025/09/26

This week, we discuss the biggest risks to the economy, whether Mag7 is a bubble, surprisingly strong consumer data, the increasingly noisy housing and labor markets, risks around Fed policy and dollar liquidity, and why gold has been a cleaner macro hedge than Bitcoin. Enjoy!— Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks:

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27:20

Inevitable Money Printing Will Drive A “Debt Doom...

Forward Guidance ·

2025/09/24

In this episode, Co-Founder of BitMEX & CIO of Maelstrom Arthur Hayes shares his macro view on the erosion of Fed independence, inevitable money printing, and how these forces intersect with crypto markets. He covers Bitcoin’s performance versus gold and stocks, the political choices around AI’s productivity boom, and why DeFi, stablecoins, and new decentralized trading models are at the heart of the next cycle. Enjoy!__ Follow Arthur: https://x.com/CryptoHayes Follow Felix:

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52:37

Winners & Losers After The Fed’s Dovish Pivot |...

Forward Guidance ·

2025/09/19

This week, we discuss the Fed rate cut and dovish pivot, exacerbating the K-shaped economy, why the dollar could be bottoming, and why gold helps Quinn sleep at night. We also dig into Bitcoin’s correlation to gold, the hollowing out of public markets by private credit, and more. Enjoy!— Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks:

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44:45

Energy & Trade Wars Are Rewriting the World Order |...

Forward Guidance ·

2025/09/17

In this episode, Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge Helen Thompson joins the show to discuss how Trump’s trade war, China’s energy and rare earth dominance, the Western Hemisphere’s oil boom, and NATO’s fiscal squeeze are reshaping global power. Enjoy!__ Follow Helen: https://x.com/HelenHet20 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram:

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54:51

The Data Is Screaming Two-Speed Economy | Weekly Roundup

Forward Guidance ·

2025/09/11

This week, Quinn and Tyler cover lighter-than-expected PPI data, the Fed’s shifting focus from inflation to labor, deep labor-market revisions showing a “two-speed” U.S. economy, surging AI/data-center CapEx alongside weakening Main Street, and the concentration risks of mega-cap stocks and buybacks. Enjoy!— Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks:

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45:15

Former Barclays CEO’s Big Bet on Hyperliquid’s...

Forward Guidance ·

2025/09/10

In this episode, Founders of Atlas Merchant Capital Bob Diamond and David Schamis discuss their journey from traditional finance to digital assets. They discuss Hyperliquid’s explosive growth, permissionless financial rails, and the innovation of perpetual swaps. We also cover the unique token model with daily buybacks, how Atlas is bringing access to U.S. investors through a new treasury vehicle, and the broader macro backdrop of debt, stablecoins, and institutional adoption of blockchain

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42:07

The Fed Is Cornered By Stagflation After Jobs...

Forward Guidance ·

2025/09/05

This week, we discuss all the growing list of weaker labor market data after August NFP showed just 22K jobs added. We also debate whether the Fed will have room to cut 50bps in September while stagflation rears its head, the potential implications if tariffs are overturned, and whether it’s time to be concerned about liquidity and Fed plumbing. Ultimately, everything leads us to one asset. Enjoy!— Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward

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56:20

Why Everyone Keeps Misreading The New Macro Regime |...

Forward Guidance ·

2025/09/03

In this episode, Ben Kizemchuk joins the show to discuss his “Four Fs” macro framework – Fiscal Dominance, Financial Repression, Fiat Currency, & Passive Flows – arguing that we’re in a unique historical moment where all four are converging at once. He explains how fiscal spending reshapes growth, why financial repression and passive flows stabilize markets, and how fiat currency enables this entire regime. Ben also shares how these dynamics blur the line between the stock market and the economy,

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55:52

The Post-Summer Market Rotation is Here | Weekly Roundup

Forward Guidance ·

2025/08/29

This week, we break down the seasonal market pivot around Labor Day, how systematic strategies dominate price action, and why inflation and economic re-acceleration could make a September rate cut a policy mistake. We also dive into the shift from capital to labor, growing government intervention in markets, parallels between AI CapEx and past gold cycles, the potential rotation from large-caps into small caps, and the state of treasury companies. Enjoy!— Follow Tyler:

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48:06

Trump’s Tariffs Could Stall Growth Before 2026 Surge...

Forward Guidance ·

2025/08/27

In this episode, founder of The Macro Compass Alfonso Peccatiello breaks down the clash between Trump’s political influence on the Fed, the reality of U.S. fiscal policy, and how to think about global markets at this moment in time. We also dig into forward rate pricing, the TGA rebuild, and the role of commodities and crypto in a world of loose monetary and fiscal policy. Enjoy!__ Follow Alf: https://x.com/MacroAlf Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance:

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53:12

Will Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Break Markets? |...

Forward Guidance ·

2025/08/21

This week, we break down the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium and whether we can expect a dovish or hawkish tilt from Powell’s legacy speech. We also dig into the Fed’s five-year policy review, Trump’s Fed takeover strategy, foreign retreat from Treasury auctions, and whether the risks of inflation are greater than the risk of recession. Enjoy!— Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance:

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49:03

Crypto Credit Markets Will Rewrite Risk Management |...

Forward Guidance ·

2025/08/20

In this episode, David Grider of Finality Capital shares how he runs a digital asset hedge fund, the rise of digital asset treasury companies, and the evolving credit and derivatives markets shaping institutional crypto adoption. He also explains how macro liquidity signals drive his strategy and why the new toolbox of crypto credit instruments is changing the game for risk management and alpha generation. Enjoy!__ Follow David: https://x.com/David_Grid Follow Felix:

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67:41

Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of 10–15%...

Forward Guidance ·

2025/08/15

This week, Brent Johnson joins us to break down the latest CPI & PPI data, the potential for September rate cuts, and why he thinks we’re ripe for a 10–15% correction. We also unpack Trump’s political strategy toward Powell, Brent’s dollar milkshake theory, and AI’s long-term impact on productivity, inflation, and the next generation. Enjoy!— Follow Brent: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Forward Guidance:

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57:02

Should We Be Worried About Jobs Report Revisions? |...

Forward Guidance ·

2025/08/13

In this episode, labor market economist Guy Berger breaks down how jobs data is collected, why revisions happen, and how to interpret them in context. He explains the roles of NFP, claims, and JOLTS data, the impact of immigration shifts on labor supply, and how business surveys can signal future hiring trends. Berger also digs into why the current conditions show stability with potential for both cooling and tightening ahead. Enjoy!__ Follow Guy: https://x.com/EconBerger Follow Felix:

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56:35

The Financial Repression Endgame | Weekly Roundup

Forward Guidance ·

2025/08/08

This week, we discuss the wild shifts in September rate cut odds, President Trump's recent nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board, and the meltdown in commercial real estate & public pensions. We also game out different tariff scenarios, the impact of the TGA rebuild, and the economy’s slow-moving trainwreck. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance:

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71:09

Markets Haven’t Priced In The End of Fiscal Tailwinds...

Forward Guidance ·

2025/08/06

In this episode, Founder & CIO of Damped Spring Andy Constan breaks down the three major macro levers shaping markets right now: a cautious Fed at a leadership crossroads, a Treasury issuing cold water via its QRA policy, and a fiscal impulse that looks contractionary once tariffs are factored in. He argues that while markets may be riding “run it hot” narratives, the data suggests we're already slowing. Enjoy!__ Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Felix:

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193 results

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