PODCAST

Capital Flows and Asset Markets

Russell Clark

Explaining how capital flows and asset markets work www.russell-clark.com

business investing

All Episodes

1:01

THE MARKET ALWAYS KNOWS - IRAN VERSION

Capital Flows and Asset Markets ·

2026/03/06

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comIt was a war we knew was coming, but had no idea how it would start or end. Would it be one and done like Venezuela, or would somehow this be a new Iraq, a quagmire with no end? The problem with prognosticating on the war today, is that so many players have an interest is spreading disinformation. This mean basing any view on what you hear from other people is a waste of time. Anyone who really knows what’s going

8:16

WHAT THE HELL IS HAPPENING IN ASIA?

Capital Flows and Asset Markets ·

2026/03/04

Japan and Korea have been by far the weakest markets since the war in Iran started. Nikkei is down 8% this month - but as any day trader or amateur market technician would tell you, so far not even a correction in an uptrend.Kospi 200 is a meatier 20% this month, which meets the definition of a bear market - but again still in an uptrend.No prizes for guessing the catalyst. Asian LNG prices have doubled in the last two days.Kospi VIX is now at 80, which is a level ABOVE Covid shock levels, and in

1:07

EXCITING TIMES!

Capital Flows and Asset Markets ·

2026/03/03

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comThe current catalyst for a market shift is the war in Iran - and as it is a crisis, the market thinks all moves are temporary. For me, crisis tends to accelerate what the market is doing anyway. In the 40 year bull market in bonds, there were always crises, which would drive yields lower, but that was just an acceleration of what was an obvious trend. In hindsight the deflationary crises of the S&L Crisis, the

0:19

FEBRUARY REVIEW

Capital Flows and Asset Markets ·

2026/03/02

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comOne of the problems with getting older, is that you see similar market set ups, and you start thinking “uh-oh” I have seen this before. I am certainly getting 2007 deja vu all over again in February. Before I get into all that, let me tell you how we did in February.

0:53

THE ANATOMY OF A FAILED SHORT

Capital Flows and Asset Markets ·

2026/02/27

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comNo doubt this will confuse my American readers. I can see themselves saying “Why is this guy talking about a failed short?” Generally speaking my American’s friends advice to me is to talk about how awesome you are, and never show weakness. I have spent enough time in the US to understand why that is sound advice in American cutthroat corporate culture. But my brand, if that’s the right word, is to be straight

1:10

SHOULD I CUT THE SHORT BOOK?

Capital Flows and Asset Markets ·

2026/02/25

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comI suspect in a special hell just for hedge fund managers, they are forced to run net short all the time. Making money shorting is tough - and even when it goes well, it can so easily reverse. While stocks can surge higher every day without a correction, I have never known a short not to bounce with perhaps one exception back in the GFC era which just fell 90% in a month.This year, despite the US being flat year to

9:52

SO CHINA IS STILL BUYING TREASURIES?

Capital Flows and Asset Markets ·

2026/02/25

I have a lot of time for Brad Setser. In a recent FT article he claimed that China was still buying treasuries, but just via policy banks rather than as official foreign reserves. He provides this chart to support his view. Not the most intuitive chart, but basically the red line goes up when the Renminbi goes up, showing that banks in China buy more treasuries when the Renminbi goes up. The implication is that the banks are trying to slow the appreciation of the Renminbi.His article claims

1:37

THE CHANGING NATURE OF MARKETS AND SHORT SELLING

Capital Flows and Asset Markets ·

2026/02/24

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comI have seen various short selling markets in my career. The first one, the dot com bust, was driven by over investment in a huge variety of internet and telecom assets. The second bear market I saw was the GFC - which at its heart was overinvestment in the housing market. The third was the commodity and emerging market sell off, which again was driven by overinvestment. By then, myself and markets had learnt that

6:01

CAN AI BE A BUBBLE LIKE THE DOT COM BUST?

Capital Flows and Asset Markets ·

2026/02/23

It is remarkably common to hear 50 something investment managers and strategists to compare the current AI boom to the dot com bubble. For those too young to remember - the dot com bubble burst in 2000, and the S&P 500 had three down years in a row.There were many poster childs of excess from that period, but perhaps the best was Cisco. Everybody needed to build an online presence, and a thousand start ups were buying equipment. When the bubble burst, the starts up ended up selling their

5:06

CURRENCIES AND BEAR P@RN

Capital Flows and Asset Markets ·

2026/02/19

During my formative years in finance, I learnt to be a “currency first” investor. Basically, I noticed most equity fund managers tended to get currency risk totally wrong, so if I got that right - I should outperform. It has taken a few years to shake off this “currency first” mentality. But I was going through some slides from my friends at 36 South (full disclosure, I am their landlord in London - but I was friends with their head of trading George Adcock, before they became tenants), and was

0:46

PRIVATE EQUITY AND SOFTWARE

Capital Flows and Asset Markets ·

2026/02/18

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comI have been bearish on private equity, partly because they stopped returning cash to investors even though markets are at all time highs, and partly because I thought the cost of capital rising would be bad for them. For corporates, cost of capital has not really risen. Over the last couple of years, high yield costs have fallen quite a lot.Despite falling capital costs, private equity stocks have been pretty weak

6:31

DO I LIKE EMERGING MARKETS HERE?

Capital Flows and Asset Markets ·

2026/02/17

The reason I was known at the most bearish fund manager on the planet back in the day, was that I ran the emerging market bull market all the way up from 2002 to 2007, and was pretty sure emerging markets were going to be a huge waste of time going forward. This view was correct as MSCI Emerging Markets has only recently surpassed the highs of 2007nearly 20 year later. Are Emerging Markets worth chasing from here?Back in 2007, MSCI Emerging Markets were dominated by banks, commodity stocks and

1:28

IS THE BOND BEAR MARKET OVER? PART II

Capital Flows and Asset Markets ·

2026/02/16

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comAs mentioned in my last post, Eurohedge nominations often happen at inflection points in the market for me. So the recent nomination, has made me nervous that my theory that we are in a world of rising cost of capital could be played out, and it is back to deflation trades. On top of this, an investor I respect wrote to me to say he was going short QQQ, Long ZROZ (QQQ is the Nasdaq 100 ETF, and ZROZ is an aggressive

1:11

IS THE BOND BEAR MARKET OVER?

Capital Flows and Asset Markets ·

2026/02/13

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comI am bearish bonds, and I have built a portfolio around the idea that we will have rising inflation, rising yields and a rising cost of capital. The fund has had a good move last year, and a good move this year. So the question that has to be asked, is it done?Firstly, in my experience, Eurohedge awards can mark the end of a trade. It has certainly been the case the three times I have been nominated before. This

5:15

BRUMBY, EUROHEDGE AND ME

Capital Flows and Asset Markets ·

2026/02/12

I am surprised by this. Performance has been good - but not that good. My nomination probably comes from maybe not that many funds launched last year or I have a great sharp ratio having not had a down month last year. Two other funds have been nominated.Hunters Moon website says they specialise in financial stocks - so should have done well. Orgueil is run by former colleagues at Horseman, Stephen Roberts and Patric Slama. They had a good year. My only chance of winning will be a superior

0:27

WHAT TO DO ABOUT JAPAN?

Capital Flows and Asset Markets ·

2026/02/10

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comThe Nikkei has been on an absolute tear over the last year or so. I don’t have many longs, but over half of them have been in Japan.

10:14

PRO-LABOUR? OR CAPITAL SCARCITY? DOES IT MATTER?

Capital Flows and Asset Markets ·

2026/02/10

A few years ago, I looked at the rise of populism as the rise of “pro-labour” politics. I saw the return of industry policy, tariffs, unions and fiscal spend as all designed to raise the share of wealth going to workers and to reduce the share going to the owners of capital. To me it meant inflation would be entrenched, UNLESS, central banks acted to tighten monetary policy. So I put on a long gold, short treasury trade. It has done well.Now if I was a typical fund manager or substack writer, I

12:23

GOLD AND BITCOIN

Capital Flows and Asset Markets ·

2026/02/05

I have like gold as a part of a pair trade - long gold short long dated treasuries, or GLD/TLT (using the ETFs codes that capture this trade). GLD/TLT has been a great trade, but I am old enough to know that nothing lasts forever, so have to wonder if we are near the end on this trade?I did manage to create a very long term GLD/TLT charts, which suggest we still have a ways to go.Clearly, GLD/TLT is a “debasement” trade of some sort. But if this is working, why isn’t Bitcoin working? Bitcoin is

0:18

A LONG IDEA TO PAIR WITH A SHORT IDEA

Capital Flows and Asset Markets ·

2026/02/03

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comI have been sceptical about the AI trade. The main reason was that pricing for AI chips looked so out of whack for pricing for other chips, my assumption was that eventually supply would overwhelm demand and pricing would fall. I looked at TSMC pricing history, and thought we were similar to the dot com bubble. In other words, I felt like I missed the move, and it was all downside from here for AI related

6:29

WHAT THE HELL IS HAPPENING WITH KOREAN VOLATILITY?

Capital Flows and Asset Markets ·

2026/02/02

Korean VIX is not your father’s VIX. Typically, VIX spikes when markets are falling - as people then rush to buy insurance. This was the case in 2008 , 2011 and 2020. If I was told KOSPI VIX was 47, I assume the market had fallen apart.The truth however is that the Kospi 200 (which is used to price VIX) has more than doubled over the past 6,7 months.If the market is going up, then why is the KOSPI VIX so high? The most likely answer is autocallables, a product that Koreans love. In the flat

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