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Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life

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All Episodes

28:38

Do we really have ‘superflu’?

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2025/12/17

The NHS is warning of an unprecedented flu season - we check what the numbers say.Is there really a mass exodus of Brits leaving the UK due to Labour tax policies? We look at the latest emigration figures.We take a look at the prison service’s curious habit of letting prisoners out early – or keeping them in for too long - is there a trend?Plus - why the US economy can’t grow at 25 percent a year.Presenter: Tim HarfordReporter: Nathan Gower Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Katie Solleveld, Lizzy

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8:57

RCP 8.5: Why did the climate change model get it wrong?

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2025/12/13

Whether we like it or not, global warming is happening. The global temperature has already gone up, and it’s going to go up more, because the atmosphere is already full of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and we’re continuing to add to that stock. Quite how much it will increase by is a very important question for all of us. Until relatively recently, during much of the 2010s and into the 2020s, many scientists claimed that if we kept on going down the path we were on, if we just kept

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8:58

Is RFK right about US sperm counts?

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2025/12/06

Around the world, many countries are concerned about tackling the decline in birth rates and total fertility rates. The US is no exception. To tackle this issue the US government announced that it would provide subsidies for Americans seeking IVF treatment. The announcement was accompanied by one suspect sounding stat from US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. "Today the average teenager in this country has 50% of the sperm count, 50% of the testosterone as a 65-year-old man," he said.

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8:57

Richard Thaler and The Winner’s Curse

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2025/11/29

In the later part of the 20th century, a pioneering group of economists started shaking up their academic field.These “behavioural economists” used findings from experimental psychology and everyday life to challenge the prevailing view that human beings were rational decision makers – acting in predictable ways to maximize their wealth.One of those pioneers was Richard Thaler, who noted down some of these “anomalies” in a column in the 1980s, which was turned into a book - The Winner’s Curse -

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8:58

Is there a stock market crash coming?

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2025/11/22

For months, the share prices of tech companies have marched seemingly-ever upward, driven by fevered excitement about the potential of Artificial Intelligence. But many are now voicing fears that this surge might turn out to be a bubble, which could burst with damaging effects.So do we have to rely on vibes? Or can we use data to tell us about the risk that AI might go pop?Nathan Gower discovers what the numbers tell us about the health of the stock market.Guests:Katie Martin, markets columnist at

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8:58

Has there been a $50 trillion wealth transfer to the...

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2025/11/15

Bernie Sanders says a vast amount of wealth - $50 trillion - has moved from 90% of the population to the wealthiest Americans since the 1970s. The figure comes from a study by Carter Price, a senior mathematician at nonprofit research institute the RAND Corporation.Tim Harford speaks to Carter to understand how he calculated his figures and what they really mean.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Producer:

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8:56

Is RFK Jr right about China's diabetes rate?

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2025/11/08

The US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr is on a mission to make America healthy again.One of his health-promotion ideas is to reduce chronic illness, specifically diabetes. And has part of his campaign he said that: "a typical pediatrician would see one case of diabetes in his lifetime, over a 40 or 50 year career. Today, 1 out of every 3 kids who walks through his office door is prediabetic or diabetic. Twenty years ago, there was no diabetes in China, today 50% of the population is

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8:57

Halloween special: How many people did the real...

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2025/10/31

Vlad III Dracula, the Wallachian Prince who became Bram Stokers inspiration behind his famous vampire 'Count Dracula,' was a brutal ruler. So brutal that history dubbed him 'Vlad the Impaler' due to his penchant for that particularly gruesome form of execution. Which, without going into too much detail, involved driving a large stake or pole through someone's body - often vertically. Chroniclers and historians claim that he impaled over 20,000 people during his reigns which, if true is a very, very

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8:58

Is your housework split sexist?

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2025/10/25

Do you ever have fights with your partner about who does more of the housework and whether it’s fair? Well data might have the answer. Corinne Low is an associate professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. She analyses surveys of how people spend their time, particularly in terms of “home production” - that is things like cooking and cleaning, and “market work”, that is, paid work. If you’re the male half of a heterosexual couple, then she’s got some stats you should

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8:56

Nobel economics prize 2025: What's the big idea?

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2025/10/18

Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt have been awarded this year’s Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.The three are sharing 11 million Swedish kronor, over a million dollars, after being recognised for their work in the area of “innovation-driven economic growth”. But why does this area matter and what did the three economists actually do? We turn the tables on our presenter Tim Harford, to explain all.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, let us

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28:38

Are millions of people getting Motability cars for...

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2025/10/15

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:The Conservative party conference has been told that millions of people are getting free cars from the government because they have ADHD and anxiety. Is that right?The chair of the Labour party says that only 3% of farmers will be affected by proposed changes to inheritance tax. Is that true?The charity Movember claim that two in five men die too young. What does that really mean?And Tim’s mid-life crisis has manifested itself in a

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8:58

Are 72% of prison inmates in Switzerland foreign?

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2025/10/11

In a recent speech to the UN, US president Donald Trump set out some remarkable figures on the proportion of inmates in European prisons who were foreign nationals.Citing statistics from the Council of Europe, he references Greece, Germany and Austria, as having rates around 50%.“In Switzerland, beautiful Switzerland,” he said “72% of the people in prisons are from outside of Switzerland.”These numbers are correct, but why are the percentages so high – particularly in Switzerland?Tim Harford speaks

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26:40

Does half the UK get more in benefits than they pay...

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2025/10/08

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:The Daily Mail says that over half of the UK population live in households that get more in benefits than they pay in tax - is it true?Do some billionaires earn more in a night than the population of Bournemouth earns in a year? New Green leader Zack Polanski seems to think so - we scrutinise the figures.Are older generations getting smarter?Have 77% of Gen-Z brought a parent along to a job interview? Really?If you’ve seen a number

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8:58

Is the world getting less miserable?

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2025/10/04

When you follow the news, particularly in countries like the UK and the US, it sometimes feels like people are less optimistic about their lives than they were in the past.But a new piece of analysis from polling company Gallup suggests this might just be the local view, not the global one. Using data from the Gallup World Poll, it suggests that “people in more countries are living better lives and expressing more hope for the future” than at any point in the last decade.Tim Harford speaks to

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28:24

Has Donald Trump ended seven 'unendable' wars?

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2025/10/01

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:US President Donald Trump claims he has ended seven “unendable” wars. Is that true?Chancellor Rachel Reeves says the UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7 for the first six months of 2025. What do you need to know about that stat?The Daily Mail has described a recent scientific paper as describing a global cancer “explosion”. Is that the whole story?And why have Oxford and Cambridge dropped down a university league table?If

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8:58

The Case of the Missing US Data

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2025/09/27

In early February 2025, something strange started happening across US government websites. Decades of data began disappearing from webpages for agencies such as the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health and the Census Bureau. In many cases the entire website went dark. Within a few days some 8,000 government pages and 3,000 datasets had been taken down. Since then, many have been reinstated - but some have not. We speak to Professors Maggie Levinstein and

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28:48

Was it easier to deport migrants to France before...

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2025/09/24

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey says it was easier to deport illegal migrants to Europe when we were in the EU. Is that true?Did the governor of the Bank of England get his numbers wrong on the UK’s ageing population?Why is the price of beef up by 25% in a year?Is it possible to prove that MPs are using AI to write their speeches?If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter:

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8:58

Is JD Vance right about left-wing violence?

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2025/09/20

On September the 10th 2025, right-wing political activist and media personality Charlie Kirk was assassinated while speaking at an event in Utah. In the aftermath, his friend JD Vance, the US Vice President, hosted a special memorial edition of ‘The Charlie Kirk Show’, live from the White House, during which he called for unity, but said that could only be found by “climbing the mountain of truth”. “While our side of the aisle certainly has its crazies, it is a statistical fact that most of the

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29:09

Is it true that out-of-work benefits have almost...

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2025/09/17

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:Nigel Farage says 6.5 million people are on out-of-work benefits – with some benefits up 80% since 2018. Are those numbers right?Do French pensioners really earn more than their working-age compatriots?How is it possible for one kilogram of fish food to produce one kilogram of salmon?And do we really have five senses?If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Tim

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8:58

Will the world really be 50 million workers short by...

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2025/09/13

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says the world faces a severe labour shortage – 50 million workers by the end of the decade.The boss of the world’s most valuable company thinks humanoid robots will be needed to fill the gap.But is this prediction based on solid evidence?Tim Harford looks at the calculations behind the claim with Rajiv Gupta, a technology expert at Boston Consulting Group, who is the likely source of the 50 million figure.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should look at,

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