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Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life

science mathematics

All Episodes

8:58

Could Europe use its financial muscle to strong-arm...

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2026/01/31

Could European Nato members use their large holdings of US shares and bonds to put pressure on America? It’s a question that some in Europe found themselves asking as the geopolitical crisis over Greenland escalated and leaders desperately tried to think of ways to dissuade Donald Trump. It is true that trillions of dollars of American financial assets are held in Europe. But the devil, as ever, is in the detail. Tim Harford talks to Toby Nangle, a journalist with the Financial Times, to

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28:57

Can you get £71,000 on benefits?

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2026/01/28

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:Is it true that someone needs to earn £71,000 before they receive more money than a family on benefits?Did Canadian prime minister Mark Carney get the GDP of Canada and the Nordic countries wrong?Are 1990s pop icons Right Said Fred right about what they said about church attacks?Is a sauna really ten times as hot as Wales in the winter?And Tim hits the science lab treadmill to find out if he can run a four-hour marathon.If you’ve

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8:58

Is Greenland as big as Africa?

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2026/01/24

The vast island of Greenland has found itself at the centre of a geopolitical crisis. But a little bit of geography can help us see the situation in a new light.YouTuber and map expert Jay Foreman explains how Mercator maps - the maps that the vast majority of us use to understand the world - contain necessary but massive distortions and hugely exaggerate the size of the Arctic island. So, why is making a flat map of a round globe so difficult? Why did we end up with a problematic map in the first

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29:05

How close is Greenland to the United States?

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2026/01/21

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: How far away is Greenland from the United States? We check a number From Our Own Correspondent. Does converting our entire energy system to be carbon neutral come with a £7.6 trillion price tag?Is the inevitable rise of house prices in the UK not so inevitable after all? Can the great mathematicians of history answer the question of the hour: how to play The Traitors? If you’ve seen a number in the news you want the team on More or

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8:58

No, a study has not shown that the covid jab causes...

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2026/01/17

In Autumn 2025 a paper in South Korea was published that excited many a vaccine sceptic online. The paper claimed that receiving a vaccination against Covid19 was linked to a 27% increase in cancer risk. However, when you dig into the data there is no evidence that the vaccine caused the cancer. We spoke to Professor Justin Fendos to explain why we cannot take this type of statistical analysis at face value. Presenter: Tim HarfordProducer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard

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28:18

Have more than 100 private schools been forced to...

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2026/01/14

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: A headline in the Mail says more than 100 private schools have closed since Labour came to power and ended the VAT exemption for private schools. Is that number right? Is it true that when Covid hit the UK, a one-week delay in imposing lockdown led to 23,000 deaths? Do 10 million families rely on X as their main source of news? That’s what government spokesperson Baroness Ruth Anderson said in the House of Lords, but is it correct

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8:59

Does Venezuela really have the biggest oil reserves...

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2026/01/10

When people think of oil rich nations their mind generally goes to Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the US. But according to international statistics, the country with the largest oil reserves is Venezuela, with 300 billion barrels worth. At their peak they produced over 3.5 million barrels of the stuff per day. However, due to lack of investment, sanctions and mismanagement that peak is long gone. Following their military intervention, the US administration claims they can get Venezuela's oil production up

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28:40

The Stats of the Nation: Immigration, benefits and...

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2026/01/09

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.In the final episode, we’re looking at the numbers behind some of the UK’s most potent political debates:Has 98% of the UK’s population growth come from immigration?Do we spend more on benefits in the UK than in other high-income countries?Is the gap between rich and poor growing?Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in

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28:53

The Stats of the Nation: Older people, education,...

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2026/01/08

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.In the fourth episode, we’re searching for answers to these questions:Are one in four pensioners millionaires?Is England’s education system performing better than Finland’s? And how does it compare to Scotland, Wales and Northern IrelandAre our prisons going to run out of space?Is the weather getting weirder?Get in touch

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29:13

The Stats of the Nation: Sex, drugs and empty homes

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2026/01/07

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.In the third episode, we’re searching for answers to these questions:Are there really 700,000 empty homes that could be used to solve the housing crisis?Does the NHS pay less for drugs than health services in other countries?Is violent crime going up or down?Is the UK in the midst of a fertility crisis?Get in touch if

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28:45

The Stats of the Nation: Health

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2026/01/06

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.In the second episode, we’re asking some interesting questions about health and the NHS:Has life expectancy in the UK starting to go up again at last?What statistics tell you about the health of the NHS?After years of promises, are there actually any more GPs?What’s happening to cancer rates in the UK?What’s gone wrong

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28:41

The Stats of the Nation: The Economy

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2026/01/05

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.In the first episode, we’re starting the week by asking some interesting questions about the economy:Is the cost-of-living crisis over?The economy is expected to have grown by 1.5% in 2025. Is that a big number?When taxes are at record highs, why does it feel as if everything is such hard work for public services?Do the

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8:57

Numbers of the year 2026

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2026/01/03

From record-breaking passenger numbers, to some more record-breaking numbers - courtesy of the Men’s football World Cup. We look forward to what 2026 might have in store for us - numerically of course.Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

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27:57

Numbers of the year 2025

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2025/12/31

From the number of women in space and transistors on a chip to social media usage -we’re taking a look back the key numerical moments of 2025. We explore the woes of a big infrastructure projects. Plus, just how can you make sure your New Year’s Resolutions are successful? We’ve got statistics to help. Presenter: Tim HarfordReporter: Lizzy McNeil Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

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8:58

Numbers of the year 2025

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2025/12/27

We look back at some stand out numbers of 2025. How significant were Trump’s import tariffs? China sets the pace for solar power installation across the globe. We also look upwards to a particularly speedy comet - 3i Atlas.Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

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28:04

Were there really Three Wise Men?

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2025/12/24

The surprising things we learn when we count everyone - a tour of the UK census through time. We also figure out just how many parking officers there are versus soldiers in the British army. Who really does all the housework? Plus - 20 years of ‘Freakonomics’ with Stephen Dubner. And finally - were there really three wise men who visited baby Jesus? And were they kings as the Christmas hymn would lead us to believe?Presenter: Tim HarfordReporter: Lizzy McNeil Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Nathan

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8:59

The shocking world of US health costs

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2025/12/20

A loyal listener wrote in to question this claim made by neuroscientist Dr Daniel Levitin: "Here in the US valium in a pharmacy might be $3 that same pill in a hospital setting might be $750."Our listener was shocked at how one pill can cost 250 x more in a hospital setting than in a pharmacy. But can it? Sort of. We turned to Elisabeth Rosenthal to take us on a dive into the frankly shocking world of US Health costs. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls

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28:38

Do we really have ‘superflu’?

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2025/12/17

The NHS is warning of an unprecedented flu season - we check what the numbers say.Is there really a mass exodus of Brits leaving the UK due to Labour tax policies? We look at the latest emigration figures.We take a look at the prison service’s curious habit of letting prisoners out early – or keeping them in for too long - is there a trend?Plus - why the US economy can’t grow at 25 percent a year.Presenter: Tim HarfordReporter: Nathan Gower Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Katie Solleveld, Lizzy

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8:57

RCP 8.5: Why did the climate change model get it wrong?

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2025/12/13

Whether we like it or not, global warming is happening. The global temperature has already gone up, and it’s going to go up more, because the atmosphere is already full of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and we’re continuing to add to that stock. Quite how much it will increase by is a very important question for all of us. Until relatively recently, during much of the 2010s and into the 2020s, many scientists claimed that if we kept on going down the path we were on, if we just kept

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8:58

Is RFK right about US sperm counts?

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2025/12/06

Around the world, many countries are concerned about tackling the decline in birth rates and total fertility rates. The US is no exception. To tackle this issue the US government announced that it would provide subsidies for Americans seeking IVF treatment. The announcement was accompanied by one suspect sounding stat from US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. "Today the average teenager in this country has 50% of the sperm count, 50% of the testosterone as a 65-year-old man," he said.

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