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PODCAST

Confluence Podcasts

Confluence Investment Management

Podcasts from Confluence Investment Management LLC, featuring the periodic Confluence of Ideas series, two bi-weekly series: the Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly and the Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report (new episodes posted on alternating Mondays), and a new monthly Q&A format called the Confluence Mailbag.

business investing

All Episodes

5:50

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Consensus Builder...

Confluence Podcasts ·

2026/04/27

Of what value to investors is a Federal Reserve Board chair who is a consensus builder? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to tell us why this is important.

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31:47

The Confluence Mailbag – Dollar Dominance, Private...

Confluence Podcasts ·

2026/04/24

In this month's Confluence Mailbag, Bill O'Grady and Mark Keller examine what Iran's shift to yuan-denominated oil transactions means for the dollar's reserve currency status and why viable alternatives remain elusive. They assess widespread concerns around private credit, weigh the broader economic ramifications of the Iran conflict — including the collapse of just-in-time inventory thinking — and close with a discussion of whether the rotation away from mega-cap growth stocks still has

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11:44

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The War in Iran and...

Confluence Podcasts ·

2026/04/20

The world has seen additional evidence this year that the United States is no longer the dominant power it once was. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss how investors can manage this new reality.

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10:39

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Wars, Price Shocks, and...

Confluence Podcasts ·

2026/04/17

The war in Iran is an event that is likely to change for the long term the way corporations manage their supply inventories. Think high instead of just in time. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss why this matters a lot for investors.

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9:01

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Strategic Petroleum...

Confluence Podcasts ·

2026/03/30

As the Strait Of Hormuz remains closed due to the war with Iran, Western nations have only limited tools to try to keep the price of oil in check. One strategy is to release stored oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss how effective this tool might be.

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11:14

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – From the Shah to the...

Confluence Podcasts ·

2026/03/23

Investors have already experienced dramatic initial volatility, but it appears that the war in Iran may also have significant long-term impacts on the financial markets. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss what these impacts might be.

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36:49

The Confluence Mailbag – From Iran to AI: Making...

Confluence Podcasts ·

2026/03/19

Bill O’Grady and Mark Keller tackle some pressing market topics, opening with a nuanced look at how the conflict in Iran might unfold and what current market expectations may be overlooking. They discuss the concentration risk embedded in passive investing and how investors can navigate it, before turning to the shifting dynamics and recent headlines in private credit, including their perspective on the implications for BDCs. The episode concludes with a forward‑looking conversation about

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16:11

Confluence of Ideas – The Case for Hard Assets: An...

Confluence Podcasts ·

2026/03/17

Now is a great time to revisit the Case for Hard Assets, an investment area that’s drawing considerable interest these days. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O’Grady draws on his deep expertise in commodities to explain the asset class and the firm’s Global Hard Assets strategy. He outlines the investment team’s macro-driven decision‑making process, offers insight into the current portfolio, and shares his outlook for the asset class, highlighting the key factors driving

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11:26

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – Are Long-Term Treasurys...

Confluence Podcasts ·

2026/03/16

After the war with Iran began, the dollar recorded its largest weekly advance since November 2024. But another traditional favorite destination for investors seeking safety, long term Treasury bonds, performed very different. In this week's report, Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez asks the question, are long term Treasurys no longer a safe haven? The answer to this question has obvious implications for investment strategies.

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14:10

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Geopolitics of US...

Confluence Podcasts ·

2026/03/13

The increased supply of dollar-backed stablecoins has the potential for wide-ranging impacts, including support for the dollar and an infusion perhaps of demand for US Treasurys. It also is making US banks nervous. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss the possibilities and the investment implications.

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8:27

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Dip That Didn’t...

Confluence Podcasts ·

2026/03/06

Younger investors appear to have more influence on the stock market than they used to and there are signs that they are becoming more cautious. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash explores what may be driving this shift and the potential fallout in this week's report. This episode accompanies the written report by the same title, published on March 2, 2026.

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15:50

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – The Great Chinese...

Confluence Podcasts ·

2026/02/27

The subject this week is China and how the purge of government officials going on inside that country might eventually impact investors. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez lends us his perspective, gained from his many years of experience in both the financial and government sectors.

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16:57

Confluence of Ideas – Reviewing the Asset Allocation...

Confluence Podcasts ·

2026/02/18

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the first quarter of 2026, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

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11:25

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Warsh Doctrine...

Confluence Podcasts ·

2026/02/17

President Trump has made it obvious he wants a Federal Reserve chair who will push for lower interest rates. Does Kevin Warsh fit the bill? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Walsh joins Phil Adler to tell us the answer is complicated.

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11:30

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – US Foreign Policy:...

Confluence Podcasts ·

2026/02/09

A close look at changes taking place in US foreign policy can be revealing from an investment standpoint. Recent changes have been sharp, but it's natural to question their staying power. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez addresses this and related issues in his latest report today comparing the new US foreign policy versus the old.

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28:43

The Confluence Mailbag – Global Shifts and the Next...

Confluence Podcasts ·

2026/02/05

Confluence’s first Mailbag Podcast episode of the year is a wide-ranging conversation on geopolitics and evolving market trends. Bill O’Grady and Mark Keller explore whether Latin America could emerge as a key low-cost producer in a deglobalizing world and the resulting investment opportunities. The discussion also covers current US dollar policy and the challenges of currency forecasting, signs of a meaningful market rotation following years of US large cap growth dominance, limitations of

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7:32

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – The Erosion of...

Confluence Podcasts ·

2026/02/02

Long-term government debt issued by advanced economies seems like a less attractive investment these days for safety conscious investors. In his latest report, Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash calls this "The Erosion of Exorbitant Privilege" for these advanced economies, and Thomas joins Phil Adler to explain why this development has significant implications for investors.

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15:47

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Blocs, Spheres,...

Confluence Podcasts ·

2026/01/26

After a year in office, it is becoming a little bit easier to categorize the Trump administration's foreign policy and to build an investment strategy around it. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler today to discuss his latest report titled "Blocs, Spheres, Empires, and Colonies," making the case that America's foreign policy is evolving to a new kind of imperialism.

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14:56

Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report – Investment...

Confluence Podcasts ·

2026/01/12

A new security strategy for the United States delivers a strong message for investors. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to fill investors in.

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8:40

Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly – America’s AI Buildout...

Confluence Podcasts ·

2026/01/12

The enormous investment in data centers to support AI development has carried the S&P 500 index to record highs. The index rose more than 16% last year, but this same investment surge may have created some market risks. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss how long this massive investment may continue and what might happen to the broader economy when it ends.

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308 results

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