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PODCAST

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast

Michael Ashton - the Inflation Guy

His audiences know him as THE ”Inflation Guy.” In the inflation markets he is known as a pioneer. He is considered as the Expert to the experts in the world of inflation markets where true expertise is hard to find. In this podcast the Inflation Guy talks about the hidden tax, the insidious assault on your wealth, and how to defend your money. Have a question? Email InflationGuy@enduringinvestments.com

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All Episodes

30:34

Ep. 149: Impasse, Idleness, Inconsistency, and...

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast ·

2025/10/02

But not 'Incompetence'! We didn't use the word 'Incompetence' in the title of the episode!We have to admit, it was tempting. But of all of the examples of incompetence that spring to mind from the last thirty-five years the Inflation Guy has been watching markets and politics and economists, the current examples just don't rank in the top tier. Now, the COVID years...that was some good incompetence there! Not that we are nostalgic for those years. Anywho, in this episode the Inflation Guy tackles

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26:30

Ep. 148: This Month's CPI - Get Used to High 3s

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast ·

2025/08/12

For the first time in a while, core CPI exceeded expectations. For the first time in a while, core services and core goods both accelerated on a year-over-year basis. But what is not at all new is that median inflation is settling in the high-3% range, roughly 3.65% y/y with today's report. Get used to it! And get used to the Federal Reserve easing anyway...NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (July 2025)”

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28:38

Ep. 147: Out of Sync

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast ·

2025/08/05

How important is 30% of the CPI? How much should we care about the summary dismissal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Is this a sign that the end of government credibility (okay, stop laughing) is nigh? The Inflation Guy addresses these questions and also muses about the out-of-sync pendulums that are currently swinging in our economy and the effect of these on the overall outcomes. NOTES Video of spontaneous synchronization: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T58lGKREubo Blog for this

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16:12

Ep. 145: Beware the Coming Inflation Bounce

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast ·

2025/07/10

The Inflation Guy does not typically do a CPI preview episode, and this isn't one either. However, he felt it was important to telegraph to investors who aren't actually inflation traders that there are some non-tariff reasons that the CPI is about to re-accelerate for at least the balance of the year. Even though this is known (and priced into inflation swaps), there's every chance that when it happens it will surprise some people and others will attribute to tariffs what should be attributed to

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29:59

Ep. 142: This Month's CPI Report - The Sky is NOT...

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast ·

2025/05/13

Sure, there's no question that screaming about how tariffs are higher than they've been since the Great Depression, or that shelves are going to be empty of product by June, or how "I won't be able to buy my son the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip", attracts more listeners. But the reality is that the whole tariff hullabaloo is likely overwrought. Certainly, even though tariffs on Canada and Mexico were in place for some time prior to "Liberation Day," we have yet to see any meaningful effect in

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29:25

Ep. 139: This Month's CPI Report – Uncertainty Reigns

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast ·

2025/04/10

Welcome to CPI Day - this one, in the midst of a head-spinning market turmoil. This moves the CPI report back a little bit in terms of its importance, but the underlying inflation pressures and the effect on prices of tariffs, going forward, are a big part of the reason for the market turmoil. Uncertainty implies lower prices for risky assets, and we are seeing that. It also has implications for inflation itself, through velocity, and for the hurdle to make policy moves as a central banker. Join

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22:40

Ep. 138: Reciprocal Tariff Day and the Adaptability...

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast ·

2025/04/01

Tomorrow, April 2nd, is 'Reciprocal Tariff Day,' when the US will impose tariffs designed to equalize (how well, no one knows) the tariffs faced by foreign imports to the US with the tariffs faced by US exports to other countries. From everything you read, this is going to be a calamity. But the Inflation Guy has a different take, and it comes from an understanding of how manufacturing actually works - with job 1 always being Make Sure the Worst Outcome Doesn't Happen.Listen to this (unscripted!)

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27:06

Ep. 125: This Month's CPI Report - Premature...

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast ·

2024/11/13

Well, it was always a risk for the Fed to start their rate-cutting path with a highly-unusual 50bps cut, while inflation was still high. But after today's CPI report, that unusual (some would say suspiciously political-looking) move puts the Fed in a difficult bind. In this episode, the Inflation Guy talks about the CPI report and explains how the Fed-Congress quid-pro-quo that has existed for decades now puts the FOMC in a sticky situation.NOTES Very important blog post: “What Makes a Stable Coin

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40:01

Ep.124: Market Thoughts After a Trump Victory

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast ·

2024/11/07

Contrary to a lot of expectations, we already seem to know the basic shape of American government going forward, with Donald Trump as President with a Republican Senate and (likely) a marginally Republican House. In this podcast episode, the Inflation Guy addresses the initial market moves, which he characterizes as the "Trump caricature" response, and explains which of these moves make sense, and which are likely senseless knee-jerk reactions to cartoonish representations of Trump's likely

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25:31

Ep. 123: This Month's CPI Report - Inflation Peek-a-Boo

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast ·

2024/10/10

One of the perils of being an analyst (although the Inflation Guy happens to be an investor and trader, and only coincidentally an analyst) is that behavioral biases tend to make us exaggerate the importance of any small collection of data. This appears to be what happened in the summer, when a couple of low CPI prints persuaded the Federal Reserve that the inflation battle was essentially won and it could turn its attention to the developing weakness in the economy.Peek-a-boo! Over the last couple

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31:18

Ep. 117: The Why Behind the Slide – and What it Means...

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast ·

2024/08/05

In this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy begins by addressing the recent stock market sell-off and tells you what is really causing it. Hint: he told you in Episode 116 it was going to happen. And: if we are actually headed into a recession and possibly a bear market, what does that mean for inflation? Keep your eyes on the macro, not the micro. The Inflation Guy tells you what that means.NOTES Podcast Callback: “Ep. 116: Political Volatility”

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58:08

Ep. 113: Real-World Crypto Escapades, Concerns,...

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast ·

2024/06/21

On this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy is blessed with not one but two outstanding guests, who help him unravel the significance of a recent client's problem: after selling his bitcoin on an exchange, the exchange made it difficult (so far, impossible) to transfer the proceeds back to his bank. As the Inflation Guy notes, "that's not in the marketing literature about crypto." So, he enlisted some experts to help explain what is going on, and what it means.Andy Fately, last

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23:37

Ep. 112: This Month's CPI Report - A Very 'Goods' Thing

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast ·

2024/06/12

This month's CPI was a good number - happy news!But if the Inflation Guy was going to design a 'good number' from scratch, he wouldn't make it look like this. He would start at the other end. What does that mean? Take a listen, and find out why this is a good report and a 'goods' report, but maybe not a great report. NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2024) Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today” To Subscribe to

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23:05

Ep. 111: Until the Job is Almost Done

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast ·

2024/06/05

At the 2023 Fed conference at Jackson Hole, Chairman Powell promised that the Fed would keep fighting inflation "until the job is done." Is the job done? The Inflation Guy thinks the signs suggest inflation is converging on a higher level than the Fed desires. Will the Fed really keep after it? Listen and find out what the Inflation Guy thinks.NOTES Pod Callback: Ep. 109: Famous Last Words Powell snippet: Source Bloomberg TV Odd reference: Wikipedia on Mummenschanz Blog for this month’s CPI:

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36:06

Ep. 108: Revisiting Velocity - Myths and Reality

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast ·

2024/04/26

There are several pernicious myths about the velocity of money that seem to never die. "Friedman said velocity is stable." "Velocity is just a plug number, so it is random." "Velocity is permanently impaired and only declines over time." These drive the Inflation Guy bananas, and from time to time he feels the need to talk about velocity. In this episode, the IG describes the main inputs into his model of velocity, and what the model currently implies about the future path of velocity from here

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26:12

Ep. 107: Those Ten Dangerous Words

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast ·

2024/04/18

We don't know if the origin of the 'ten most dangerous words in the English language' was Ronald Reagan, or if the story predates him. But those words, "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help you," are the theme to today's podcast. The Inflation Guy interprets some recent news stories, but ties it all together with a crucial observation about what happens if the 'scarce resource' in a particular economy turns out to not be 'labor.' NOTES Dan Bongino Show from April 18

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23:49

Ep. 106: This Month's CPI Report - A Potential Pony...

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast ·

2024/04/10

On this month's CPI report, the Inflation Guy addresses yet another high-side surprise and discusses the details, along with how this fits into the continuing narrative. Curious about how this concerns ponies? You'll have to listen to the episode!NOTES Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/ To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website

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32:13

Ep. 105: Inflation as Foreign Exchange, or How People...

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast ·

2024/04/03

Okay, buckle up because the Inflation Guy here is going to cover some big-time concepts. Wayyyy back in 2003, some guys named Jarrow and Yildirim explained how inflation acts just like foreign exchange, except not foreign and not on an exchange. No, no, stay with me here. Turns out they were right, and a lot of what is happening today - and the mistakes in interpretation that are being made - can be understood if you understand that the 'inflation FX market' has just changed in important ways. This

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29:20

Ep. 104: Inflation Snippets

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast ·

2024/03/22

Every once in a while, it is a good rigor to take all of those sticky notes that festoon your desk and put them into one, organized, document. At least, that's what the Inflation Guy tells himself. On the other hand, they say 'a clean desk means someone else is in charge.' Still, it was getting to be a fire hazard.In this episode, the Inflation Guy tackles a few disparate stories and recent trends that seem to have an overarching theme: the general disinflationary trend we have been enjoying for

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26:16

Ep. 103: This Month's CPI Report - Sticky Too Soon

Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy Podcast ·

2024/03/12

Another month, another above-consensus CPI print. The Inflation Guy tears into the data like a feral cat, ripping away the fatty bits to get at the meaty part. Okay, maybe that was too graphic. Anyway, this cat points to several signs in this month's inflation report that inflation is starting to get 'sticky' at a higher level than we'd like it to, and the recent inflation deceleration is going to get more difficult going forward. What is the implication for Fed policy? NOTES To Subscribe to

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